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We doubt China will lower its LPR despite weakness in the housing sector (02.15 BST) Inflation in the UK probably rose to a new 40-year high in June (07.00 BST) Clients can sign up for the Drop-In on our UK economic outlook here Key Market Themes While we …
19th July 2022
Although we doubt that they will fare quite as badly as they have in recent weeks, we still expect the energy and materials sectors of global stock markets to underperform over the next couple of years. Worries that high inflation, and the large interest …
We think that the UK labour market remained healthy in May (07.00 BST) US housing starts may point to a further drop in construction activity in June (13.30 BST) We expect a 100bp rate hike from Nigeria’s central bank Key Market Themes Optimistic …
18th July 2022
UK CPI inflation may have risen further in June (Tue.) We expect a 25bp hike from the ECB next week... (Thu.) ...while the Bank of Japan could widen its tolerance band for the 10-year JGB yield (Thu.) Key Market Themes We think that several data releases …
15th July 2022
While a lot of attention has focussed naturally on the potential implications for the JGB market of a further tweaking of the Bank of Japan’s Yield Curve Control (YCC), the country’s huge investment in markets overseas means that they too might …
Activity data from China likely to show a continued rebound from lockdowns (03.00 BST) US activity data may point to a further slowdown in growth in June Clients can view our new Oil Market dashboard on CE Interactive here Key Market Themes The latest …
14th July 2022
We expect Chile’s central bank to hike by 50bp (Wed. 23.00 BST) Inflation in Sweden probably rose further above target last month (Thurs. 07.00 BST) Clients can watch our Drop-In on the latest US CPI surprise here Key Market Themes While we expect …
13th July 2022
Consumer prices in the US are likely to have risen again in June (13.30 BST) Growth of exports out of China probably edged lower in June We expect interest rate hikes in Canada, New Zealand, Korea and Chile Key Market Themes While the euro ’s rapid fall …
12th July 2022
The resurgence in China’s stock market may already be over. We forecast that the MSCI China Index will struggle alongside major equity indices elsewhere over the next year or two, as China’s economic recovery underwhelms and many of the policies which …
Consumer price inflation in India likely to have risen further in June (13.00 BST) We expect Hungary’s central bank to raise its base rate by 200bp, to 9.75% Germany’s ZEW investor sentiment indicator probably fell again in July (10.00 BST) Key Market …
11th July 2022
Consumer prices in the US probably jumped yet again in June (Wednesday) Official data may show a contraction in China’s economy in Q2 (Friday) We expect interest rate hikes in Canada, New Zealand, Korea and Chile Key Market Themes June’s US Employment …
8th July 2022
As forecasts for corporate earnings in the US finally start to come down amid worries about the outlook for the economy there, this Update considers the implications for equities and bonds. For most of this year, equity analysts have continued to paint a …
We think US non-farm payroll employment slowed to a decent 250,000 in June (13.30 BST) Headline inflation probably picked up further in Brazil last month (13.00 BST) Meanwhile employment growth in June probably also slowed in Canada (13.30 BST) Key Market …
7th July 2022
Fed minutes likely to solidify expectations for a 75bp hike this month (Wed, 19.00 BST) We expect 150bp and 75bp interest rate hikes in Sri Lanka and Pakistan, respectively Clients can sign up here for our Drop-in on the outlook for EM Currencies this …
6th July 2022
Euro-zone retail sales probably edged higher in May (10.00 BST) The FOMC’s Minutes from June should provide details on the pace of tightening (19.00 BST) We expect Romania’s central bank to raise rates by 100bp Key Market Themes Euro-zone assets and the …
5th July 2022
We expect the RBA to hike its cash rate by 50bp, to 1.35% (05.30 BST) Composite PMIs for Italy and Spain likely to have dropped further last month Headline inflation probably rose in Korea, but fell in the Philippines and Thailand in June Key Market …
4th July 2022
We expect 50bp hikes in Australia, Israel, and Peru next week... ... and 75bp hikes in Poland, and Pakistan We think US payrolls increased by 250,000 last month (Fri.) Key Market Themes We don’t expect US equities and Treasuries to fare well in the second …
1st July 2022
China’s Caixin manufacturing PMI might exceed 50 for the first time in four months (02.45 BST) Euro-zone inflation in June was probably a bit lower than consensus estimates (10.00 BST) ISM manufacturing index might provide further evidence of slowing US …
30th June 2022
The period since the publication of our last Asset Allocation Chart Book on 31 st May has brought yet more pain for investors. Between then and 28 th June, the returns from all the headline indices that we track, bar USD cash, were negative. That includes …
We think the “official” China PMIs for June headed back above 50 (02.30 BST) Sweden’s central bank looks set to raise its policy rate by 50bp… (08.00 BST) … and we expect a 150bp hike from Colombia’s central bank (19.00 BST) Key Market Themes We think …
29th June 2022
We think that Germany’s inflation rose to 9.2% in June (13.00 BST) Fed’s Powell, ECB’s Lagarde and BoE’s Bailey to speak on panel at ECB Forum (14.00 BST) Clients can access our proprietary indicators and latest forecasts on CE Interactive Key Market …
28th June 2022
We expect Hungary’s central bank to hike rates by 50bp (13.00 BST) Consumer confidence in the US probably remained subdued this month (15.00 BST) Clients can sign up here for our Drop-In on the outlook for Asian central banks (15.00 BST) Key Market Themes …
27th June 2022
We doubt that aggressive policy tightening by developed market (DM) central banks will be followed by a series of financial crises in major emerging market (EM) economies in the way that it has at times in the past. Even so, we still suspect that global …
Sweden’s Riksbank may hike its policy rate by 50bp (Thursday) Euro-zone inflation probably increased further in June (Friday) We think the ISM Manufacturing Index slipped again this month (Friday) Key Market Themes The proximate cause of this week’s …
24th June 2022
We held a Drop-In on Wednesday to discuss what the evolving outlook for monetary policy and global growth means for our markets forecasts. This Update recaps the key questions we addressed in the Drop-In and answers several of the questions that we …
We think inflation in Japan held steady at 2.5% in May (00.30 BST) German IFO likely to point towards recession (09.00 BST) Watch today’s Drop-In on tightening in Switzerland and the Nordic economies here Key Market Themes While the yield of 10-year US …
23rd June 2022
The prospect of weaker economic growth has reduced the appeal of US banks’ equities, even though they may yet benefit from a renewed rise in long-dated Treasury yields and still appear relatively undervalued. In a Focus published last November, we argued …
We expect the Norges Bank to up the pace of tightening with a 50bp hike (09.00 BST) Policymakers in Egypt, the Philippines, and Mexico will also probably raise policy rates … … whereas we think that central banks in Indonesia and Turkey will leave rates …
22nd June 2022
We think inflation in the UK continued to edge higher in May (07.00 BST) We expect policymakers in Czechia to raise rates by 100bp (13.30 BST) Clients can sign up here for our Drop-In on our new financial market forecasts (15.00 BST) Key Market Themes …
21st June 2022
We think rising mortgage rates continued to weigh on US home sales in May (Tue. 15.00 BST) In this week’s drop-ins, we’ll discuss the macro risks of higher interest rates …(Tue. 15.00 BST) … and our new financial markets forecasts (Wed. 15.00 BST) Key …
20th June 2022
We expect rate hikes next week in Norway, Mexico, Czechia, the Philippines and Egypt Headline CPI inflation in the UK may have risen above 9% in May... (Wed.) ...but it probably remained around 2.5% in Japan (Fri.) Key Market Themes The BoJ left policy …
17th June 2022
Bank of Japan may resist widening the tolerance band around its yield target, for now Final euro-zone inflation data will reveal the breadth of inflationary pressures there (10.00 BST) US industrial output probably rose at a healthy pace in May (14.15 …
16th June 2022
We expect the SNB to leave interest rates unchanged for now… (08.30 BST) …while we think the BoE will deliver a 50bp hike (12.00 BST) Clients can sign up here for our Drop-In on the Fed, ECB, BoE and markets (15.00 BST) Key Market Themes Euro-zone …
15th June 2022
The prospect of even tighter Fed policy than we had previously envisaged (see here ) raises the risk of a worse outcome for the US economy and corporate earnings further down the line than we had assumed. So, we now suspect that the 10-year Treasury yield …
The PBOC may ease policy tomorrow with a 10bp cut to its MLF rate (02.20 BST) We expect the Fed to hike by 75bp (19.00 BST) We think Brazil’s central bank will raise rates by 50bp (22.30 BST) Key Market Themes While the twin sell-off in bond and equity …
14th June 2022
The prospect of tighter Fed policy than we had previously envisaged (see here ) presents upside risks to our forecasts for the 10-year Treasury yield as well as downside risks to our forecasts for the S&P 500. The moves in financial markets have been …
We think the UK’s unemployment rate held steady in April (07.00 BST) Germany’s ZEW sentiment indicator probably remained in recessionary territory (10.00 BST) We will be holding a drop-in on the outlook for Bank of England policy (15.00 BST) Key Market …
13th June 2022
We expect China’s central bank to cut a key policy rate next week... (Wed.) ... while the US Federal Reserve is likely to hike by at least 50bp (Wed.) We expect 50bp rate hikes in the UK and Brazil as well Key Market Themes Given that price pressures in …
10th June 2022
Despite the sharp fall in the US stock market this year so far, US equities still appear much more highly valued than their peers in the rest of the world. While that might not tell us much about the outlook for relative returns in the near term, …
China’s inflation data may add to evidence that lockdowns were disinflationary (02.30 BST) High food and energy prices probably kept inflation above 8% in the US … (13.30 BST) … and elevated inflation probably weighed on consumer confidence in early June …
9th June 2022
ECB likely to give more details on its plans to normalise monetary policy (12.45 BST) China’s exports probably grew strongly in May as supply disruptions eased We expect Brazil’s headline inflation to have fallen a touch in May (13.00 BST) Key Market …
8th June 2022
While we forecast that the US economy will merely slow rather than enter a recession, we still expect twin sell-offs in stock and bond markets to resume, with value stocks and defensive sectors outperforming. Our US Economics Service is the place to go …
We expect Poland’s central bank to raise its policy rate by 75bp The Reserve Bank of India may hike by another 50bp… (05.30 BST) …and clients can register for our post-RBI Drop-In here (15.00 BST) Key Market Themes Although we doubt it will appreciate …
7th June 2022
We expect a 25bp rate hike from the Reserve Bank of Australia (02.30 BST) South Africa’s economy may have slowed in Q1 (10.30 BST) The US trade deficit probably narrowed in April (13.30 BST) Key Market Themes With UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson facing a …
6th June 2022
We think growth in US non-farm payrolls slowed in May but remained strong (Friday 3 rd June) We expect the RBA to raise its policy rate by 25bp, to 0.6% (Tuesday 7 th June) ECB may give more clues on its tightening plans at its June meeting (Thursday 9 th …
1st June 2022
Euro-zone unemployment rate probably remained at a record low in April (10.00 BST) The US ISM manufacturing survey may have softened a touch in May (15.00 BST) We expect another 50bp rate hike from Canada’s central bank (15.00 BST) Key Market Themes We …
31st May 2022
For much of this year, expectations of tighter Fed policy have driven up Treasury yields, weighing on the US stock market’s valuation in the process. That has changed since we published our last Asset Allocation Outlook , as Treasury yields have dropped …
China’s official PMIs probably increased but remained weak in May (02.30 BST) We think euro-zone headline inflation rose further in May, to just under 8% (10.00 BST) We expect the central bank of Hungary to hike its policy rate by 75bp, to 6.15% (13.00 …
30th May 2022
We suspect that US non-farm payrolls climbed by 300,000 in May (Friday) We think euro-zone headline inflation rose further in May, to just below 8% (Tuesday) China’s PMIs probably increased but remained weak this month (Tuesday & Wednesday) Key Market …
27th May 2022
Even if high inflation continues to put downward pressure on profit margins, we still suspect that the consumer staples sector in the US will be a relative bright spot against a backdrop of underwhelming growth and a renewed rise in bond yields leading to …
