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The RBI will probably end its tightening cycle with a 25bp hike on Thursday (04.30 BST) Industrial production was probably flat in Germany in February (07.00 BST) Catch up on yesterday’s Drop-in on the outlook for global financial markets here Key Market …
5th April 2023
We expect the RBNZ to slow the pace of tightening and hike by 25bp (02.00 BST) The ISM Services Index is likely to show further signs of slower growth (15.00 BST) We think policymakers in Chile and Poland will keep interest rates on hold Key Market …
4th April 2023
Sign up to our Drop-In on our latest outlook for financial markets We expect policymakers to keep policy rates unchanged in Australia, at 3.6%… (04.30 BST) … as well as in Romania, at 7.0% (14.00 BST) Key Market Themes Although the decision by OPEC+ …
3rd April 2023
Despite only being three months old, 2023 has already seen several macro narratives play out in markets. “Soft landing” optimism in January was followed by a “no landing” narrative in February which has given way to concerns about a banking crisis in …
31st March 2023
We expect the RBA to pause its tightening cycle next week (Tue.) The National Bank of Poland will probably also keep rates on hold (Wed.) We think the US labour market cooled in March (Fri.) Key Market Themes Although a “narrowing” of the stock market …
China’s official PMIs are likely to show economic momentum fading in March (02.30 BST) We think euro-zone headline inflation fell in March, while core remained strong (10.00 BST) Real consumption in the US probably changed little in February (13.30 BST) …
30th March 2023
With the dust settling on the recent turmoil in US and European banks, economists from across our financial markets coverage assessed the damage to the outlook for bonds, equities and FX. Chief Markets Economist John Higgins and the team held an online …
We think Germany’s inflation rate fell sharply in March (12.00 BST) The central bank in South Africa will probably hike its policy rate by 25bp… (14.00 BST) … while policymakers in Egypt may deliver an aggressive 300bp hike Key Market Themes During the …
29th March 2023
Canada’s 2023 budget likely to focus on longer-term measures (Tue.) We expect Czechia’s central bank to leave its policy rate on hold… (Wed.) …and we think Thailand’s central bank will do likewise (Wed.) Key Market Themes The recent surge in the yield …
28th March 2023
We expect Hungary’s central bank to leave policy unchanged (13.00 BST) US Conference Board data may give an indication of any recent hit to sentiment (15.00 BST) Sign up here for tomorrow’s Drop-In on the risks around commercial real estate (16.00 BST) …
27th March 2023
We expect China PMIs for March to suggest economic momentum there is fading (Fri.) Updated UK Q4 GDP data may reveal a recession there after all (Fri.) Euro-zone headline CPI inflation probably dropped in March (Fri.) Key Market Themes We suspect some …
24th March 2023
Needless to say, economic downturns are usually bad news for US banks’ share prices. But banks haven’t always underperformed the overall stock market in a recession – even when there has been a banking crisis! That could conceivably be the case again this …
We think UK retail sales edged up again in February (07.00 GMT) Flash PMIs for the euro-zone probably declined a little in March (09.00 GMT) We expect US durable goods orders fell in February (12.30 GMT) Key Market Themes With major central banks …
23rd March 2023
We expect the Fed to raise its policy rate by 25bp later on Wednesday (18.00 GMT) The SNB and Norges Bank are both likely to hike rates on Thursday (08.30 & 09.00 GMT) The latest UK inflation data support our view that the BoE will hike by 25bp too …
22nd March 2023
Although recent strains in the banking sector mean that the economic outlook is especially uncertain, in our view equities are unlikely to perform particularly well, regardless of how things play out. It goes without saying that, over the past year or so, …
We think CPI inflation edged lower in the UK… (07.00 GMT) …and continued to soften in South Africa in February (08.00 GMT) The Fed will probably press ahead with a 25bp rate hike (18.00 GMT) Key Market Themes A risk-on mood has prevailed today amid …
21st March 2023
Clients can access all our latest research on the banking sector crisis here … … and catch-up on today’s Drop-in on the topic here Canada’s CPI inflation probably fell to 5.4% in February, from 5.9% in January (12.30 GMT) Key Market Themes Financial …
20th March 2023
While the Credit Suisse rescue might draw a line under that particular institution’s problems, it is clear that confidence in the financial sector overall is still extremely fragile. So regardless of whether more financial institutions run into trouble, …
We expect the Fed to press ahead with a 25bp hike next week (Wed.) The Bank of England and Norges Bank will probably also hike by 25bp (Thu.) But we think the SNB may raise rates by 50bp (Thu.) Key Market Themes Despite a better day for financial …
17th March 2023
While the backdrop has shifted dramatically, we still think there’s a strong case for our existing forecasts of a further rally in long-dated bonds by the end of the year, and some near-term strength in the US dollar and weakness in equities. The Swiss …
The ghosts of 2008 have made a sudden reappearance. Many metrics of core market functioning have worsened worryingly fast, but the overall situation is still long way short of the type of strains seen during the worst parts of the Global Financial …
16th March 2023
We expect Russia’s central bank to leave its policy rate on hold (10.30 GMT) US industrial production probably fell back in February (13.15 GMT) Clients can watch today’s Drop-In on banking sector turmoil and central banks here Key Market Themes The ECB …
We think Japan’s exports rebounded by 7.0% y/y on February (23.50 GMT) The ECB may not hike rates tomorrow due to fears of a banking crisis (13.15 GMT) Sign-up here for our US Drop-in on our outlook for the US economy (15.00 GMT) Key Market Themes The …
15th March 2023
Euro-zone industrial production probably edged up in January (10.00 GMT) The UK’s Spring Budget may contain limited short-term fiscal loosening (12.30 GMT) We think that US retail sales fell by 0.8% in February (12.30 GMT) Key Market Themes How the …
14th March 2023
Clients can find our coverage on the SVB collapse on our designated landing page here … …and sign-up here for our Drop-In on the policy outlook for the ECB (10.00 GMT) We think US consumer price inflation fell only slightly, to 6.1%, in February (12.30 …
13th March 2023
We think US consumer price inflation fell slightly to around 6% in February (Tue.) Retail sales in China probably rebounded in January and February (Wed.) We expect the ECB to hike by a further 50bp (Thu.) Key Market Themes US government bond yields …
10th March 2023
The Bank of Japan could abandon Yield Curve Control tomorrow We think UK GDP growth picked up in January, but recession looms (07.00 GMT) We expect US payrolls data to confirm that January strength was a blip (13.30 GMT) Key Market Themes We think …
9th March 2023
The US may not have a monarchy, but cash has arguably become its proverbial king of investments. If history is a guide, it is a reign that is likely to feature equities underperforming bonds amid a recession. Last November, the yield of a 3-month Treasury …
Fed Chair Powell’s testimony to Congress has prompted a material revision to our forecast for the path of the fed funds rate and suggests the near-term risks to that forecast are skewed to the upside. This Update sets out some of the likely implications …
8th March 2023
China inflation data likely to show rising price pressures (01.30 GMT) We expect interest rates to be left on hold in Malaysia… (07.00 GMT) …and also expect Peru’s central bank to leave rates unchanged (23.00 GMT) Key Market Themes Most “risky” assets …
Germany’s industrial production probably fell a bit further in January (07.00 GMT) We think Poland’s central bank will leave its policy rate on hold… (13.00 GMT) …and the Bank of Canada will keep its policy rate unchanged as well (15.00 GMT) Key Market …
7th March 2023
We expect Australia’s central bank to hike by 25bp (04.30 GMT) Fed Chair Powell may reveal whether his outlook for interest rates has changed (15.00 GMT) We think China’s exports weakened, but imports strengthened, in January and February Key Market …
6th March 2023
Although recent economic data have surprised to the upside, we still think that economic growth in the US will falter later this year. In our view, indicators of the equity risk premium in the US point to some complacency regarding the economic outlook, …
3rd March 2023
We expect Australia’s RBA to hike by another 25bp (Tue.) Japan’s central bank will probably abandon Yield Curve Control (Thu./Fri.) We think US non-farm payrolls rose by 200,000 in February (Fri.) Key Market Themes Notwithstanding the partial …
With much of the global economy holding up surprisingly well and inflation not coming down as quickly as expected, investors are weighing up the risk that policy rates remain elevated for much longer than previously thought. This Update discusses what …
We think inflation in Turkey eased slightly to 54% in February (07.00 GMT) Final PMIs in Europe may confirm that activity is holding up better than expected (09.00 GMT) We expect the US ISM services index to have fallen back in February (15.00 GMT) …
2nd March 2023
Strong data in France and Spain suggest to us euro-zone inflation rose in February (10.00 GMT) We think Brazil GDP figures will confirm the economic growth was flat in Q4 (12.00 GMT) Clients can sign-up here to our Drop-In on the impact of elections in …
1st March 2023
We think Australia’s GDP growth softened a touch in Q4 (00.30 GMT) Germany’s HICP inflation probably fell in January (13.00 GMT) We expect the ISM manufacturing index for February to have remained weak (15.00 GMT) Key Market Themes We think the recent …
28th February 2023
While the ~0.3% return from US dollar cash between 31 st January and 24 th February was hardly impressive, cash nonetheless outperformed all of the other eighteen headline indices that we track. As data pointing to a still-hot US economy and stubborn …
We expect Hungary’s central bank to leave its policy rates on hold (13.00 GMT) US consumer confidence may have recovered a bit but is probably still low (15.00 GMT) Join our Drop-In on the long-run economic and market impacts of fracturing (15.00 GMT) …
27th February 2023
We think that euro-zone inflation fell again in February (Wed.) The China PMIs will probably show another acceleration in activity (Wed. & Fri.) We doubt that the February ISM surveys will point to stronger growth (Thu. & Fri.) Key Market Themes Despite …
24th February 2023
We think the recent outperformance of the US “big-tech” “super-sector” could continue, but not because of the “bargain hunting” that we think has caused it to occur despite higher real Treasury yields . The rise of more than 30bp in the 10-year TIPS yield …
23rd February 2023
We think Japan’s headline CPI inflation rose to a four-decade high in January (23.30 GMT) US income and spending data is likely to show a strong rebound in consumption (13.30 GMT) We expect headline and core US PCE price indices to have risen by 0.5% …
The war in Ukraine. Ageing populations. Rising temperatures. Investors are having to grapple with a formidable range of uncertainties around the long-term outlook for the global economy and markets. Their challenge is compounded by the fracturing of the …
22nd February 2023
Turkey’s central bank will probably cut its policy rate by 100bp (11.00 GMT) We think Mexico’s CPI edged down to 7.6% in the first half of February (12.00 GMT) We expect policymakers in Korea to keep interest rates on hold Key Market Themes We doubt …
The big sell-off in both equities and bonds that was a feature of 2022 has arguably created scope for them to fare a bit better in the coming years by reducing their valuations. Nonetheless, we don’t think they will provide spectacular returns over the …
21st February 2023
We think the RBNZ will hike rates by an above-consensus 75bp (01.00 GMT) Final German HICP data will offer more clarity on inflation’s drivers there (07.00 GMT) February FOMC minutes may give more insight into the Fed’s thinking (19.00 GMT) Key Market …
The February composite PMI probably rose further above 50 in the euro-zone… (09.00 GMT) … and remained below 50 in the UK and the US We think CPI inflation was unchanged at 6.3% in Canada in January (13.30 GMT) Key Market Themes Those hoping for stellar …
20th February 2023
We think the Composite PMI rose to just above 50 in February in the euro-zone… (Tue.) …but remained below that threshold in the UK (Tue.) US real consumption probably rebounded in January, reversing declines in past months (Fri.) Key Market Themes While …
17th February 2023
While more disinflation may yet benefit the US stock market by, for example, facilitating a renewed decline in TIPS yields and boosting profits from the rest of the world if accompanied by a weaker dollar, we don’t think it will prevent equities from …
