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Our Interactive Markets Chart Pack gives you a comprehensive and timely view of the latest developments in financial markets, and how we expect them to perform in 2025 and beyond. The Chart Pack can be downloaded in PDF form using the Download button on …
13th March 2025
We think enthusiasm around AI will return before long and inflate the stock market bubble further over the next year or so, supported by a backdrop of resilient economic growth and monetary easing cycles. In turn, we expect the “big-tech” sectors to …
29th August 2024
We don’t think the recent rotation in US equities sets the stage for something much bigger. We expect the “big-tech” sectors to lead the charge again before long, helping equities in the US outperform those in most other economies. And we expect equities …
31st July 2024
Our View: We expect equities to outperform most other assets as a bubble fuelled by AI-enthusiasm continues to inflate, supported by a backdrop of resilient economic growth and monetary easing cycles In particular, we expect US equities to continue to …
31st May 2024
We expect equities to outperform most other assets as a bubble fuelled by AI-enthusiasm continues to inflate, supported by a backdrop of resilient economic growth and monetary easing cycles. In particular, we expect US equities to continue to lead the …
30th April 2024
We expect ‘safe’ assets to rally a bit more over the next couple of years, largely informed by our belief that investors are underestimating how quickly and/or how far many central banks will cut interest rates over 2024-2025. Our expectation that safe …
29th February 2024
We expect “safe” assets to rally a bit more over the next couple of years, largely informed by our belief that investors are still underestimating how quickly and/or how far many central banks will cut interest rates over 2024-2025. That backdrop of …
30th January 2024
This is a special Global Economics Chart Pack that provides clients with key analysis to make sense of the macro and market impact of the disruptions to maritime shipping. The charts in this document come from our brand-new shipping dashboard , which …
25th January 2024
We expect “safe” assets to continue to rally over the next couple of years, largely informed by our belief that investors are still underestimating how quickly and/or how far many central banks will cut interest rates over the next couple of years. And …
30th November 2023
We expect the fortunes of safe assets to improve over the rest of this year, largely informed by our belief that investors are underestimating how quickly and/or how far central banks will cut interest rates over the next couple of years. And while we …
30th October 2023
Although we’re growing less convinced by the idea that the US economy will tip into recession over the coming quarters, we still expect disappointing growth across advanced economies to weigh on risk appetite over the rest of this year. We think that may …
31st August 2023
Our View : We still expect the US and other advanced economies to tip into recession later this year. We think that will cause risk appetite to sour, putting pressure on ‘risky’ assets and favouring ‘safe’ ones. We expect central banks, in general, to cut …
28th July 2023
Aside from the US stock market – which is being propped up by a handful of big name stocks and a serious dose of AI fever – most risky assets have struggled over the past month or so . (See Chart 1.) We don’t think that owes much to the back-and-forth …
1st June 2023
The MSCI USA Index has not made much further headway on net in April so far. But it has at least held on to its strong gains from earlier in 2023, returning about 8% YTD. Part of that strength presumably reflects the global economy proving more …
28th April 2023
While the ~0.3% return from US dollar cash between 31 st January and 24 th February was hardly impressive, cash nonetheless outperformed all of the other eighteen headline indices that we track. As data pointing to a still-hot US economy and stubborn …
28th February 2023
The broad-based rally in “risky” assets that got underway in Q4 of last year has continued in 2023 so far, with global equities, developed market (DM) REITs, corporate bonds and industrial metals all off to a strong start to the year. Those gains have …
31st January 2023
A renewed pullback in global equity markets and rise in bond yields in December is set to cap off a historically poor year for returns from both “risky” and “safe” asset classes. In fact, once the surge in inflation in 2022 is accounted for, returns …
22nd December 2022
As has been the pattern for much of this year, a sharp rise in government bond yields in September heaped yet more downward pressure on stock markets, with the S&P 500 reaching its lowest level since late 2020 earlier this week. Since central banks in …
30th September 2022
While European prices for natural gas have retreated in recent days, the widely tracked TTF benchmark has still risen by more than 20% in August, and remains at a level about ten times higher than was typical prior to last year. Europe’s energy crisis …
31st August 2022
The period since the publication of our last Asset Allocation Chart Book on 31 st May has brought yet more pain for investors. Between then and 28 th June, the returns from all the headline indices that we track, bar USD cash, were negative. That includes …
30th June 2022
For much of this year, expectations of tighter Fed policy have driven up Treasury yields, weighing on the US stock market’s valuation in the process. That has changed since we published our last Asset Allocation Outlook , as Treasury yields have dropped …
31st May 2022
Given that the past couple of months has seen the outbreak of war in Ukraine, surging commodity prices, growing concerns about inflation, and increasingly hawkish noises from the world’s major central banks, it is not surprising that US Treasuries have …
31st March 2022
2021 is on course to be a relatively good year for most investors. Admittedly, it has not been entirely without its casualties. Equities in China and much of Latin America, for example, have struggled, against a backdrop of growing political risks. …
21st December 2021
News of the spread of the Omicron variant has put COVID-19 back at the top of many investors’ list of concerns. While on a far smaller scale, the impact on markets so far has been qualitatively similar to that during the first COVID-19 meltdown between …
30th November 2021
Three key developments in China over the past month or so are worth highlighting, as they feed into our broader asset allocation forecasts for the next couple of years. First, what started as a regulatory crackdown on a handful of sectors seems to have …
16th September 2021
We expect several of the trends that have tentatively (re-)emerged in financial markets recently to persist. First, developed market (DM) sovereign bonds have come under pressure again, and have underperformed risky assets. We have been arguing that the …
12th August 2021
We are still anticipating an extremely rapid recovery in the global economy over the rest of this year. But even so, it has become more difficult to make the case that returns from risky assets across the board will remain very strong, at least in the …
10th June 2021
Although we forecast that that the “rotation” in equity markets generally has further to run, as COVID-19 is contained and economies re-open, we project that developed market (DM) Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITs) will continue to underperform DM …
6th May 2021
While equity markets came under pressure towards the end of the month, they generally weathered February’s roughly 30bp rise in the 10-year US TIPS yield quite well, with most major indices still rising slightly over the month as a whole. A more …
2nd March 2021
Extreme speculative movements in the prices of a handful of stocks and of silver have generated a lot of headlines over the past month. But those surges have not been reflected in the performance of risky assets more generally, many of which have taken a …
2nd February 2021
Good news about progress on coronavirus vaccines in the past month has started, or fuelled, a number of trends which we broadly expect to last through 2021, as those vaccines help the global economy reopen and policy mostly remains supportive. The trends …
2nd December 2020
As investors have digested the prospect of an effective vaccine against COVID-19, many of the patterns in financial markets which have been a feature during the pandemic have started to unwind. One example is this year’s stark underperformance of MSCI’s …
16th November 2020
The two asset classes that we track which have seen by far the most action since the last edition of the Asset Allocation Chart Book on 5 th August are US equities and energy commodities. Not only have they been the best and worst performers respectively …
10th September 2020
The broad-based recovery in “risky” assets that got underway on 23 rd March has run out of steam since 8 th June. That is not because policy support has been dialled back. Instead, it appears to reflect renewed concerns about the spread of the coronavirus …
5th August 2020
“Risky” assets have comfortably outperformed “safe” ones over the past month, even as evidence of the scale of the economic damage caused by the coronavirus outbreak has continued to mount. We suspect that this will continue for a while yet . We argued …
4th June 2020
While the recent outperformance of “risky” assets has faltered in the past few days, we are sceptical of the idea that it has all been built on an overly-optimistic view of the economic outlook, for two reasons . First, there have been huge disparities in …
5th May 2020
We simply don’t know how far, or fast, the novel coronavirus outbreak will ultimately spread, so for the time being we are assuming that the response across asset classes will follow the same pattern observed during and after previous epidemics – that the …
29th January 2020
We do not expect to see a resumption of the “ reflationary ” pattern that until recently had characterised markets over the past month. This is primarily because we think that the global economy will remain stuck in a low gear for some time to come, and …
21st November 2019
We still think that returns from many “safe” assets, including most developed market government bonds, will fail to beat those from US dollar cash over the rest of 2019, even as “risky” assets, notably equities, REITs and corporate bonds, struggle against …
18th October 2019
