Narrowly avoiding recession The slowdown in French GDP growth from an upwardly-revised +0.6% q/q in Q2 to only 0.1% in Q3 (see Chart 1) was a little better than the consensus and our own forecast (+0.1% and -0.2% q/q) and means GDP was 1.8% larger than …
31st October 2023
The Bank of Japan today de facto abolished Yield Curve Control and we think policymakers will call time on negative interest rates as soon as January . A casual reading of today’s statement would suggest that policy settings were left unchanged: the Bank …
RBA will hike by 25bp next week as inflation and labour market continue to run hot But there will be a high bar for additional tightening further down the road As the economy takes a turn for the worse, rate cuts still likely in Q2 2024 With inflation …
We are resending this publication because it was incorrectly sent as a Japan Economics Update. Note: We'll be discussing h ow much of a threat are surging bond yields to Asia’s economies in our Asia Drop-in today, 31st October. Register here to join the …
Note: We'll be discussing h ow much of a threat are surging bond yields to Asia’s economies in our Asia Drop-in today, 31st October. Register here to join the online briefing. Bank of Japan will tighten policy further next year The Bank of Japan today de …
This page was first published on Tuesday 31 st October, covering the official PMIs. We added commentary on the Caixin manufacturing PMI on Wednesday 1 st November, and the Caixin services and composite PMI on Friday 3 rd November. Note: We discussed h …
Note: We'll be discussing h ow much of a threat are surging bond yields to Asia’s economies in our Asia Drop-in today, 31st October. Register here to join the online briefing. This page has been updated with additional analysis since first publication. …
30th October 2023
On the back of upward adjustments to our 10-Year Treasury yield forecasts, we now expect to see a larger increase in cap rates. This will see office cap rates rise to over 6.5% by end-2024, pushing the peak-to-trough price fall for the sector to more than …
We expect the fortunes of safe assets to improve over the rest of this year, largely informed by our belief that investors are underestimating how quickly and/or how far central banks will cut interest rates over the next couple of years. And while we …
A renewed surge in the spreads of private-label commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS), at a time when the spreads of high-yield (HY) corporate bonds have remained fairly subdued (see Chart 1), has attracted little attention in US bond markets amid …
London house prices have fallen by less than we anticipated, and stopped falling altogether in Q3. However, the high level of house prices compared to incomes should mean that higher mortgage rates weigh particularly heavily on demand from mortgaged …
While we think sticky core inflation will mean that the Bank of England keeps interest rates at their peak of 5.25% until late in 2024, we think the markets have gone too far in concluding that rates will still be as high as 4.50% by the end of 2025. We …
European investment fell sharply again in Q3 but with interest rates at their peak we think the downturn will soon bottom out. However, our upgraded bond yield forecasts indicate only a limited easing of financing conditions next year, so we think the …
While we think the cyclical forces that have weakened the relationship between commodity prices and “commodity currencies” will fade before long, we suspect some structural factors – namely the US’s ongoing shift to becoming an energy exporter – mean that …
This page has been updated with additional analysis since first publication. Economy struggling, labour market coming off the boil, price pressures easing October’s business and consumer survey from the European Commission added to the evidence that the …
This page has been updated with additional analysis since first publication. Sentiment ticks up, recovery slowing taking shape The European Commission's Economic Sentiment Indicators for Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) were another mixed bag in October, …
Net lending to property totaled £132mn in September, the lowest amount since February. But looking through the monthly volatility, on a 3-month basis lending has totaled more than £1.5bn in every month since March. That compares to an average of £620m …
China’s economy is regaining some momentum after stalling during the summer. A step up in policy support looks set to deliver a modest cyclical recovery but trend growth remains under pressure. … China Chart Pack (Oct. …
Approvals bottom out, but will remain low The drop in mortgage approvals in September left them a third below their usual level in the years leading up to the pandemic as high mortgage rates put homeowners off moving and priced many first-time buyers out …
“Sick” German economy slipping back into recession The small decline in German GDP in the third quarter and upward revision to the previous two quarters means the economy is not doing quite as poorly as anticipated. But GDP has essentially been stagnant …
Foreign direct investment into China, as measured by the balance of payments data, has collapsed. It is tempting to pin this on global fragmentation or a loss of confidence in China’s economic prospects. But the key driver appears to be more prosaic: the …
Note: We’ll be discussing the latest Fed, ECB and Bank of England policy decisions in a Drop-In at 3pm GMT on Thursday 2 nd November . (Register here .) This page has been updated with additional analysis since first publication. Drag on lending and …
This page has been updated with additional analysis since first publication. Pause in the recession Preliminary data released this morning show that the Swedish economy flatlined in Q3 (0.0% q/q) after contracting sharply in the second quarter (-0.8%). …
This page has been updated with additional analysis since first publication. Surge in retail sales bolsters case for policy tightening With Australia’s retail recession likely having ended last quarter, it’s all but certain that the Reserve Bank of …
It's Fed week and Deputy Chief US Economist joins David Wilder to discuss what to expect from the Tuesday-Wednesday FOMC meeting, including how the recent surge in long bond yields could influence the decision and accompanying language. Andrew also …
29th October 2023
Despite another week of broadly dollar-positive news, the greenback has continued to drift sideways – suggesting its rally since July is running out of steam. Even though US Q3 GDP came in at nearly 5% annualised growth, while data in Europe continued to …
27th October 2023
Today’s rebound in Amazon’s share price following news that its sales were better than expected in Q3 has shored up the performance of the ‘Magnificent 7’ in what has otherwise been a tough week for most of them amid a mixed bag of reports, lingering …
European natural gas prices have fallen a long way from their 2022 peaks and the possibility of another energy crisis this winter now looks remote. However, prices are still much higher than they were before the pandemic and much higher than in the US – …
The conflict between Israel and Hamas continued to drive commodity prices this week. Oil prices fell back while gold prices defied the stronger dollar and held steady. Elsewhere, forecasts of cold weather sent US natural gas prices soaring. (See Chart …
The string of central bank meetings across Emerging Europe this week highlighted the unique challenges that policymakers across the region are currently facing, but one common thread in all countries is that inflation risks are persisting and we think …
Food prices risk delaying Africa interest rate cuts Inflation across Africa has been falling back recently, but persistent food price pressures pose a threat to policymaker’s ambitions to start cutting interest rates. The SARB’s Deputy Governor Fundi …
The Bank of Canada’s insistence that inflationary risks have increased seems at odds with its new forecasts, which show a large degree of economic slack opening up next year. Our view that the Bank is still overestimating the near-term outlook for both …
The preliminary data for Q3 were sobering, with euro-zone prime yields moving up significantly more than expected. This confirms the 2022-23 real estate contraction as the worst on record and, with offices the key driver, it now looks like the value falls …
Argentina: it’s not the economy, stupid? Elections in Argentina rarely fail to surprise and Sunday’s vote was no exception. While it was widely expected that the election would go to a run-off between Peronist and current Economy Minister Sergio Massa …
Has the AI productivity boom already begun? New Speaker, old problems The House Republicans finally managed to elect a new Speaker this week, with the caucus eventually rallying around Mike Johnson, who up until this week could hardly have been described …
This week’s data releases provide further evidence that the euro-zone is probably in a mild recession. The euro-zone Composite PMI declined to a level consistent with GDP contracting by 0.2% q/q (see here ) and although the Ifo Business Climate Indicator …
Stronger rise in core prices likely to be a blip The stronger gains in real consumption and the core PCE price index in September are a potential concern for Fed officials, but won’t be enough to convince them to resume raising interest rates next week, …
Giving with one hand, taking with the other Earlier this week, China’s legislature increased the government’s planned annual budget deficit from 3.0% of GDP to 3.8%. This was the first mid-year revision since 2008 and only the fifth in the PRC’s history. …
Note: We’ll be discussing the latest Fed, ECB and Bank of England policy decisions in a Drop-In at 3pm GMT on Thursday 2 nd November . (Register here .) In the last few months there has been more concern over the accuracy of key economic data. The recent …
Strengthening ties with the Quad India’s government is pushing ahead with efforts to make India a key link in global manufacturing supply chains. The Cabinet this week approved a Memorandum of Cooperation with Japan on a semiconductor supply chain …
Taiwan’s growth moderated in Q3 Activity data published this week for Taiwan paint a mixed picture of the economy. Consumer demand is coming off the boil but exports have rebounded. More details will be available in the Q3 GDP figures due next week. …
CBR delivers a larger hike as fiscal risks mount Russia’s central bank (CBR) opted for a larger-than-expected 200bp interest rate hike, to 15.00%, at today’s meeting and, while policymakers seemed to signal that the tightening cycle is at an end, we think …
Global goods trade rose slightly in August and timelier data point to further gains in September. But we expect global trade to fall again in due course as economic downturns in several advanced economies weigh on their demand for traded goods. According …
Economy still growing but set to weaken GDP data for Spain in Q3 were a bit stronger than expected and showed that the economy was proving more resilient in the face of high interest rates than anticipated. But the outlook is still weak. The 0.3% q/q …
In line with our upwardly revised forecasts for the 10-year US Treasury yield, we’ve raised our projections for 10-year government bond yields in most other developed market economies. But we still expect those yields to fall, in general, by the end of …
BoJ probably won’t tweak Yield Curve Control Media reports suggest that the Bank of Japan may tweak Yield Curve Control yet again at next week’s Board meeting. That’s certainly possible: 10-year JGB yields have risen sharply since the launch of the new …
