ECB officials have stressed that evidence of easing wage growth will be key in determining the timing of the first rate cut. Accordingly, this Update assesses which of the euro-zone’s numerous wage measures investors should keep their eyes on. The main …
3rd April 2024
Positivity surrounding India’s near and long-term economic outlook is arguably at its highest in a decade, with good reason. But amid the optimism, it is easy to become complacent to the downside risks. This Focus highlights five key risks that we think …
We think that it is now time for the curtains to close on the so-called ‘excess savings’ debate. While unusually high savings accumulated by households during the pandemic helped prevent recessions in advanced economies in 2023, they are likely to have …
Table of Key Forecasts Overview – GDP growth across most of the emerging world will fall short of consensus expectations this year. But there will be key bright spots such as India and Taiwan. While disinflation is likely to proceed more slowly from here …
The recent easing in price pressures and the Bank of England's new-found dovish slant has convinced investors that interest rates will be cut a bit further over the next two years. But we still think investors are underestimating how far rates will fall. …
Mortgage rates temporarily drop below 7%, helping demand recover Mortgage rates dipping back below 7% helped mortgage applications for home purchase edge slightly higher in March. But recent increases in the 10-year Treasury yield point to mortgage rates …
After a very weak 2023, Saudi Arabia’s economy should see a modest recovery this year as the Kingdom’s non-oil economy sustains its strong momentum and more than offsets the drag from the extended oil output cuts. Last month, the General Authority for …
This page has been updated with additional analysis since first publication. Falling inflation points to June rate cut The fall in both headline and core inflation in March suggests that the ECB is very likely to begin cutting interest rates in June. The …
A soft end to Q1, but the Gulf economies still going strong March’s batch of PMIs for the region showed that, despite a minor tick down in the survey readings, the Gulf states enjoyed a strong start to 2024. Saudi Arabia’s survey edged down from 57.2 in …
Further rise in inflation will keep pressure on the CBRT to hike The increase in Turkish inflation, to 68.5% y/y in March, will keep pressure on the central bank (CBRT) to hike interest rates further at its meeting later this month. We maintain our …
We expect the RBNZ to hold rates steady at its meeting next Wednesday. But with the economy in a deep slump and inflation clearly on the way down, the Committee is likely to tone down its tightening bias. As inflation risks continue to recede, we expect …
The sharp rise in Treasury yields this week has probably contributed to the sell-off in US equities, but it isn’t the only factor. And even if Treasury yields remain high, we doubt that would prevent the US stock market from rising further this year. The …
2nd April 2024
The rise in the aggregate EM manufacturing PMI to a three-year high in March was largely driven by strength in Asian industry, with activity elsewhere weaker. While slower growth in DMs should weigh on activity in the months ahead, strength in domestic …
The economy made a strong start to the year, but that was largely due to temporary factors that will soon fade. With spare capacity emerging, particularly in the labour market, downward progress on inflation is becoming clearer. Changes to immigration …
The February JOLTS data suggest that labour market conditions are now easing at a more gradual pace, but that isn’t a surprise when most indicators of slack have already returned to pre-pandemic norms. At 5.3% in February, the job openings rate has been …
March’s manufacturing PMIs provided further evidence that global industry is past the worst. And although higher industrial output has caused price pressures to increase in some advanced economies, it won’t prevent central banks from cutting interest …
The universal tariff which Donald Trump has proposed, along with other likely spillovers from his trade policies, may result in a hit to the euro-zone economy of up to half a percent of GDP. The damage would be bigger if this triggered a transatlantic or …
The strong showing for the opposition in Turkey’s local elections on Sunday highlights the extent of voter frustration with high inflation and we think that it should be interpreted as a positive for investors by strengthening policymakers’ commitment to …
China’s PMI surveys in March are consistent with some improvement in economic activity and solid commodities demand. We think that government stimulus will continue to boost economic activity in the coming months and in turn support the prices of most …
While the number of “green” jobs in the UK rose strongly in 2022, it’s worth noting that green workers were still outnumbered by estate agents! Market forces are facilitating the transition to a greener workforce, but policies to make the labour market …
Net lending declines for first time in a year Net lending to commercial property edged back for the first time in a year in February, with declines in both standing and development lending. But the falls were marginal and on a three month average basis …
National data point to fall in euro-zone inflation The fall in CPI inflation in the major German states in March all but confirms that both German and euro-zone HICP inflation will come in lower than expected in March. This will please ECB policymakers, …
This page has been updated with additional analysis since first publication. Drag on activity from high interest rates continues to fade February’s money and credit figures show the dip in mortgage rates at the start of the year boosted mortgage approvals …
Small improvement in CEE, Russia continues to run hot The manufacturing PMIs rose across Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) in March but they remain consistent with a relatively weak recovery. Poland’s PMI inched up from 47.9 in February to 48.0, Czechia’s …
Rising mortgage rates cause house prices to stall The 0.2% m/m fall in the Nationwide house price index in March (consensus: +0.3%, CE: +0.2%) suggested that the rise in mortgage rates since the turn of the year has caused house prices to stall. That …
Slowdown in house price growth has further to run Australian house prices continued to pare their gains last month. And a further loss of momentum appears likely in the near term, especially given that the RBA is unlikely to come to the housing market’s …
Once the Bank of Japan starts to reduce its huge holdings of Japanese Government Bonds (JGBs) in earnest, we think that commercial banks will once again become major holders of JGBs. Insurance firms may lift their holdings a touch further as well, but we …
RBA abandons tightening bias but rate cuts still a long way off While the RBA no longer considered raising interest rates at its March meeting, we think it will take until November for the Bank to start easing monetary policy. The Bank noted that …
The Bank of Canada’s quarterly business and consumer surveys remain consistent with weak GDP growth and generally show that inflation expectations are normalising, but the latter are still too high and raise the risk that the Bank will wait to see …
1st April 2024
Above 50.0 for the first time since September 2022 The jump in the ISM manufacturing index in March, leaving it above the theoretical 50.0 no-change level for the first time since September 2022, suggests that the sector has finally turned a corner. While …
The PMIs from Emerging Asia remained weak in March. We think manufacturing sectors across most of Asia will struggle in the near term but activity in Korea and Taiwan is likely to remain strong. The weighted average headline PMI for Emerging Asia rose …
This report was first published on Monday 1 st April covering the official PMIs and the Caixin manufacturing PMI. We added commentary on the Caixin services and composite PMIs on Wednesday 3 rd April. More signs of a cyclical upturn Sizeable rises in the …
This page has been updated with additional analysis since first publication. Tankan points to sluggish recovery The slight fall in business conditions across all firm sizes in the latest Tankan suggests that a rapid recovery from the likely slump in Q1 …
Core prices moderate again, but real spending strong The slightly weaker than expected gain in core PCE prices in February will, at the margin, provide Fed officials with a little more confidence that the January surge was an anomaly. Nevertheless, the …
29th March 2024
Q1 GDP to drop sharply as industrial output slumps With industrial output falling yet again in February following the plunge in January, GDP will fall sharply in the first quarter. The 0.1% m/m decline in industrial production in February was weaker than …
Click below to visit our Shipping Disruption Dashboard, which we have updated and extended to include analysis of the Baltimore port closure. Explore the dashboard … Shipping Disruption Dashboard: New Charts on …
28th March 2024
The collapse of the Francis Scott Key bridge in Baltimore this week is unlikely to have a large impact on global energy flows. For oil, flows of crude and refined products to or from Baltimore are tiny. More coal is exported from Baltimore, but the scale …
Brazil: Copom signals it will tread more cautiously The minutes to the Brazilian central bank’s meeting last week (at which it cut the Selic rate by 50bp, to 10.75%, as expected) confirmed our view that Copom will soon start to slow the pace of easing. …
Equities have enjoyed another strong quarter and, while a lot of good news is priced in, we think they can extend their winning streak. Sovereign bonds have, by contrast, struggled over Q1; but we think they have scope to rally, and rate cuts by major …
The US dollar has eked out small gains against some major currencies so far this week, leaving the DXY index just below 105 at the time of writing. During an otherwise quiet week, the February PCE data release out of the US tomorrow may add to the …
The economy made a strong start to 2024, but that was partly due to the end of strike disruption and the record warm winter. We expect GDP growth to slow sharply next quarter, persuading the Bank of Canada to start its loosening cycle in June. GDP surges …
Zambia moves closer to full debt restructuring deal Zambia secured an debt restructuring deal with private bondholders this week. It looks like it has the seal of approval from official creditors, paving the way for the country to finally exit default. …
Confirmation that France’s budget deficit was much higher last year (5.5%) than assumed in the government’s 2024 budget (4.9%) adds to concerns about Europe’s public finances. Indeed, Germany, France and Italy are all likely to be tightening fiscal policy …
We expect non-farm payroll growth to ease to 180,000 in March. The jump in the unemployment rate in February is unlikely to be repeated, and is more likely to be partly reversed. We are sceptical that the recent reacceleration in non-farm payroll growth …
Africa Chart Pack (Mar. 2024) …
Hungary shifting down the monetary easing gears The post-meeting communications from Hungary’s central bank (MNB), after it slowed its easing cycle on Tuesday , support our view that the pace of rate cuts is set to slow further over the coming months. The …
China is driving the global renewable rollout… It came as no surprise to see China loom large in the International Renewables Energy Agency’s provisional statistics on renewable energy capacity in 2023. As shown in Chart 1, China added more than twice as …
Everyone knows that one reason why the recession was so small and short is because higher interest rates had a smaller drag on the economy than in the past. But it’s less appreciated that future interest rate cuts may not boost the economy as much either. …
