As of January, world trade had already fallen by more than 5% from its peak in September. And despite a slight boost from reopening in China, several leading indicators still point to further falls in trade in the months ahead. One upside is that this …
11th April 2023
Brazil’s inflation drops sharply, but won’t sway the central bank The plunge in Brazilian inflation last month, to 4.7% y/y, was driven by a sharp decline in food inflation; core inflation remains high and the headline inflation rate is set to rise again …
Are European and UK commercial real estate markets facing the same level of distress as the US? Join our Property Drop-In on Wednesday, 14th February to learn more, Register here for the 20-minute session. Recent turmoil in the banking sector has …
Another bearish sign for business investment in Q1 “Core” machinery orders fell by 4.5% m/m in February, following a 9.5% rise in January. Orders from the manufacturing sector saw a strong 10.2% m/m rebound, largely due to a huge spike in orders from the …
12th April 2023
This page has been updated with additional analysis and charts since first publication. Credit growth still strengthening Bank loan growth jumped to a 17-month high in March. And broad credit growth rose to its highest since December. Both were stronger …
Rise in core inflation makes 25bp hike in May very likely March’s inflation data make it all but certain that the Norges Bank will press on with its planned 25bp rate hike at the next meeting in May. The increase in headline CPI inflation from 6.3% in …
The Bank of Korea left interest rates unchanged (at 3.5%) for a second consecutive meeting today, and attempted to push back against expectations of a rate cut this year. But with the economy struggling badly and inflation continuing to ease, we are …
Inflation set to remain below government’s ceiling this year Producer price deflation deepened further last month to a 33-month low, and consumer price inflation dropped below 1% for the first time in over a year. The key driver was lower food and fuel …
Inflation set to remain below government’s ceiling this year Producer price deflation deepened further last month to a 33-month low, and consumer price inflation dropped below 1% for the first time in over a year. The key drivers were a decline in food …
House prices rebounded in March but we aren’t convinced that this marks the beginning of a sustained rebound. Affordability is set to become the most stretched since the early 90s and if the unemployment rate rises as rapidly as we anticipate, house …
On hold again, first cut likely in August The Bank of Korea left its policy rate unchanged (3.5%) for a second consecutive meeting today, and we don’t think it will be long before rate cuts come onto the agenda. With the economy struggling badly and …
Strong consumption momentum to carry over into Q2 Both the current and outlook readings in March hit their highest in more than a year, capping off a strong first quarter for the EWS. This is another sign that private consumption remained resilient in Q1 …
10th April 2023
Economy losing forward momentum Only two months later the economy’s apparent strong start to the year in January looks increasingly like it was a brief sugar high, in part due to the unseasonably mild winter and possibly the outsized cost-of-living …
7th April 2023
Employment and wage growth continue to trend lower The 236,000 gain in non-farm payrolls in March adds to the evidence that the economy’s strong start to the year was partly weather related, with momentum fading again. With the sharp fall in job openings …
Employment and wage growth continue to trend lower The 236,000 gain in non-farm payrolls in March adds to the evidence that the economy’s strong start to the year was partly a weather-related blip, with momentum now fading again. With the sharp fall in …
Overview – We have made substantial downgrades to our forecasts this quarter. Aside from their direct impact through tighter lending conditions, last month’s regional bank failures appear to be helping crystallise some of the risks to commercial real …
6th April 2023
This edition of the Weekly Wrap is published today in view of the Good Friday holiday tomorrow. It has been another relatively subdued week in currency markets, but despite another batch of disappointing economic data out of the US and accompanying falls …
The local real estate board data suggest that new listings fell again in March, defying expectations that high interest rates could lead to forced home sales. With supply falling by more than demand, the risks to our house price forecasts lie to the …
Improved economic fundamentals outside the US have coincided with the dollar’s sharp fall since last September, narrowing the greenback’s substantial overvaluation. But we still think that it remains somewhat stronger than warranted by fundamentals. …
The surprise announcement last weekend by OPEC+ countries that they would make voluntary oil production cuts, even before the OPEC advisory committee met on Monday, pushed oil prices higher by about $5 per barrel. The decision means that the oil market …
Current market pricing suggests that there is around a 60% chance that, at the next policy meeting in May, the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) raises interest rates by 25bps, from 4.25% now to 4.50%. This isn’t surprising given the decision will probably …
The next edition of the Capital Daily will be published on 11 th April 2023, after Easter Monday. We expect the US employment report to show the labour market is cooling (Fri.) Headline CPI inflation in China may have dropped below 1% in March (Tue.) We …
The UK stock market has been caught in the crossfire of recent sectoral trends in global equities, leading to a period of underperformance over the past month. Despite tentative signs of that going into reverse, we doubt that the MSCI UK Index will …
Argentina-IMF: targets a hard ask A read between the lines of the IMF’s Fourth Review of Argentina’s $44bn Extended Fund Facility suggests that the deal could be starting to fray at the seams. To start with, the government and the IMF don’t appear to be …
Commercial real estate (CRE) has become an area of particular concern against a backdrop of higher interest rates and a pandemic-induced reduction in demand for office space. Sweden’s economy looks particularly vulnerable to a downturn in the sector for …
Labour market conditions easing despite low unemployment rate The unemployment rate remained very low at 5.0% in March but, with wage growth slowing and the survey indicators pointing to a sharper decline ahead, the Bank of Canada is unlikely to be too …
Raising exports to US$2trn by 2030 a tough task This week marked the start of the government’s new Foreign Trade Policy (FTP). While previous FTPs have had a five-year span and have typically focussed on financial incentives for exporters such as …
Weak economy and elevated inflation in Singapore Having been one of the star performers during the pandemic, Singapore’s economy has weakened considerably in recent months. GDP grew by just 0.1% q/q in the final quarter of last year, and recent data …
Expansion in Q1 likely… After stagnating in Q4, euro-zone GDP probably rose in the first quarter. The final Composite PMI , released this week, confirmed that economic conditions improved further in March (though a bit less than implied by the flash …
Real estate exposures have not been central to financial developments in Europe over recent weeks, but, as property prices correct after a decade of steady expansion, some strains are likely to emerge. While not appearing systemic, these fragilities …
CEE remains in recession in Q1 The batch of hard activity data and surveys released across Central Europe this week were relatively weak and suggest that GDP contracted in most economies again in Q1. We think the regional downturn will stabilise in Q2, …
Infrastructure boosting construction activity The shape of China’s post-zero-COVID rebound has become clearer over the past week: primarily services-driven, as expected, but with stronger construction activity too, which appears to be mostly about …
Nigeria’s uphill battle to reverse declining FDI Nigeria’s incoming administration is facing an ever-increasing list of economic challenges, and for many there are no quick solutions are at hand. This is certainly the case for the steady decline in …
The Land Registry report that London house price growth slowed to 3.2% y/y in January and more timely data based on mortgage approvals show a 2.2% y/y fall in prices in Q1. The detail suggests that affordability is becoming the primary driver of pricing. …
The RBA’s decision to keep rates on hold at its April meeting has reignited debate over whether the Bank’s tightening cycle is at an end. Financial markets certainly seem to think this is the case. However, our view, and the analyst consensus, is that the …
We anticipate that the S&P 500 will fall back later in 2023, largely because analysts are far from pricing in a recession in the US that we think is even more likely after the recent banking turmoil. Our forecast is that the index will reach a trough of …
Note: Join our 6 th April online briefing all about the risks to EMs from banking turmoil. Register now . Gulf economies to slow on back of OPEC+ cuts One of the main angles to the surprise voluntary oil output cuts by OPEC+ is geopolitical – it’s another …
Construction activity holds up as housing enters the doldrums The March headline CIPS Construction PMI reversed some of its surprise jump in February, but it remained in expansionary territory. That was driven by the commercial sector, where strong …
JODI data on global oil and natural gas consumption reveal that global energy demand remained in the doldrums around the turn of the year. We suspect a recovery in natural gas demand is more likely to occur than in oil demand, as prices of the former have …
The RBI’s decision to keep the repo rate on hold at 6.50% today belied the central bank’s recent hawkish communications. The door remains ajar for hikes in the future but with headline inflation set to fall back to within the RBI’s 2-6% target range …
House price indices diverge The third consecutive monthly increase in house prices recorded by Halifax suggests that pricing is proving remarkably resilient to higher mortgage rates. But it is at odds with the consistent fall in the Nationwide house …
Industrial resilience won’t prevent recession The second consecutive big increase in German industrial production in February all but confirms that GDP returned to growth in Q1. The industrial resilience may continue in the coming months but we still …
RBI unlikely to tighten any further The RBI’s decision to keep the repo rate on hold (at 6.50%) today comes as a surprise and belies the central bank’s recent hawkish communications. The door remains ajar for hikes in the future but with headline …
Falling international trade points to weaker growth The widening of the trade surplus in February largely reflects the fact that imports of goods and services fell at a much faster rate than exports. Therefore, even though net trade will make a positive …
Falling international trade points to weaker growth The widening of the trade surplus in February highlights ongoing weakness in domestic demand. The rise in the trade surplus to $13.9bn in February, from a downwards-revised $11.3bn in January, was in …
Inflation has fallen faster than Bank expected Probably too soon for Bank to drop its bias toward further rate hikes New neutral policy rate estimate could move long-run rate expectations The recent banking turmoil in the US means the Bank of Canada may …
5th April 2023
SPR releases should support commercial stocks in the coming weeks The rebound in crude oil prices is already feeding into wholesale gasoline prices, but we don’t think the increase will be enough to derail demand, which is running at a healthy clip. …
Central banks focused on inflation for now, but will monitor credit in the months ahead Conditions were already tightening before recent turmoil… …and by Q3, lending surveys and spending data will show clear signs of strain Central banks are now in a …
