Australia Government Budget Balance (% of GDP) …
12th July 2023
Argentina Inflation (% y/y, quarterly) …
Switzerland Inflation (% y/y, quarterly) …
Poland Inflation (% y/y, quarterly) …
Vietnam Inflation (% y/y, quarterly) …
United States Inflation (% y/y, quarterly) …
United Kingdom Inflation (% y/y, quarterly) …
US Policy Interest Rate (%, monthly since 2000) …
Euro-zone Policy Interest Rate (%, monthly since 2000) …
Crude Oil Prices (US$ per barrel, daily since Jan 2021) …
CE Crude Oil Price Forecasts (US$ per barrel, end of period, 2023-2025) …
China Activity Proxy (% y/y, period averages) …
Poland Policy Interest Rate (%, quarterly) …
US Policy Interest Rate (%, quarterly) …
Euro-zone Policy Interest Rate (%, quarterly) …
Spain Unemployment Rate (%, annual) …
Romania Unemployment Rate (%, annual) …
Luxembourg Unemployment Rate (%, annual) …
Ireland Unemployment Rate (%, annual) …
Spain Unemployment Rate (%, monthly) …
Germany Unemployment Rate (%, monthly) …
UK Unemployment Rate (%, monthly) …
Euro-zone Current Account Balance (% of GDP) …
Qatar Government Budget Balance (% of GDP) …
US Government Budget Balance (% of GDP) …
Canada Government Budget Balance (% of GDP) …
UK Annual Mortgage Approvals (thousands) …
Table: Key UK Housing Interest Rate Forecasts …
UK House Prices (£, annual) …
Canada 10Y Government Bond Yield (%, end of quarter) …
Spain 10Y Government Bond Yield (%, end of quarter) …
We expect headline and core inflation to keep falling and to undershoot the ECB's forecasts …
... while electricity and gas inflation will pick up a bit …
That said, the drop in energy inflation is over. Fuel inflation will be broadly flat this year... …
Consumers' near term inflation expectations dropped in Q1 …
Driven primarily by falling goods inflation …
Headline and core inflation have dropped …
Rents keeping core rate elevated, especially for CPI …
PCE inflation on track to return to 2% by mid-year …
RPI inflation will fall further than CPI inflation …
CPI inflation will fall below 2% in April and below 1% later this year …
US Household Risk Indicators (Z Scores) …
US Domestic Credit (As a % of GDP) …
CE forecast and OIS-implied year-end ECB deposit rate (%) …
Headline Earnings in Major DMs (% y/y, since Jan. 2018) …
Vacancies in Major DMs (Dec. 19=100) …
Canada Underlying Inflation (% y/y) …
Probability that US economy will be in recession in 12 months (yield curve model) …
US CPI Inflation (% y/y) …
Slovenia Real GDP (% y/y) …
