Banxico continues to sit on the sidelines Mexico’s central bank chose not to follow its peers in the rest of Latin America and begin an easing cycle, leaving its policy rate unchanged at 11.25% at today’s Board meeting. Concerns about the persistence of …
10th August 2023
We think disinflationary pressures will help the Fed pivot to rate cuts sooner than investors expect, giving a boost to “safe” assets this year and next. US CPI data for July, published today, was largely in line with consensus expectations. (See here .) …
With lingering pandemic and energy support measures coming to a close and governments returning one eye to previous fiscal targets, fiscal policy will tighten a little in advanced economies over the coming years. This will contribute to slower growth. But …
We are unconvinced by Christine Lagarde’s claim that the recent strength of employment in the euro-zone is due mainly to labour hoarding and shifts in the sectoral composition of employment. Instead, we suspect it is mainly due to understaffed firms …
Since our last Financial Market Stress Monitor on 13 th May, strains have continued to ease. This abbreviated Stress Monitor takes stock of developments since then. Overall, stress across core financial markets appears about as low as at any point …
Aramco’s profit slump ≠ austerity The slump in the profits of Saudi Arabia’s state oil company, Aramco, in Q2 has focussed attention on the deterioration in the Kingdom’s budget position. But the authorities appear to be taking as many steps as possible …
While China’s latest price reports have markets worrying about deflation, Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing thinks the real issue is what’s happening in core inflation against a backdrop of a struggling economy. He also reviews the “immaculate” July CPI …
Apart from lagging shelter prices, Fed already hit its inflation target The disinflationary pressures continued to build in July, with both headline and core CPI increasing by a moderate 0.2% m/m. Admittedly, the annual headline inflation rate actually …
The stark and unusual contrast between falling credit spreads of high-yield (HY) corporate bonds and rising ones of private-label commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) in the US suggests investors expect the economy there to shrug off lingering …
UK Retail Capital Value Growth Forecasts (% y/y, 2023-2027) …
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Table: Industrial Net Initial Yield/Prime Yield in Ge, Fr, It, Sp, Nl, Cz, Pl, UK (%) …
Belgium Office Capital Value Growth Forecasts (% y/y, 2023-2027) …
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Table: Industrial Capital Value Growth in Ge, Fr, It, Sp, Nl, Cz, Pl, UK (% y/y) …
UK Office Capital Value Growth Forecasts (% y/y, 2023-2027) …
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Spain Office Yield Forecasts (%, 2023-2027) …
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France Office Capital Value Growth Forecasts (% y/y, 2023-2027) …
UK Retail Yield Forecasts (%, 2023-2027) …
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Germany Retail Rental Value Growth Forecasts (% y/y, 2023-2027) …
France Retail Capital Value Growth Forecasts (% y/y, 2023-2027) …
Table: Industrial Rental Value Growth in Ge, Fr, It, Sp, Nl, Cz, Pl, UK (% y/y) …
France Office Rental Value Growth Forecasts (% y/y, 2023-2027) …
Spain Retail Capital Value Growth Forecasts (% y/y, 2023-2027) …
Germany Retail Yield Forecasts (%, 2023-2027) …
France Retail Yield Forecasts (%, 2023-2027) …
Belgium Retail Yield Forecasts (%, 2023-2027) …
Table: Industrial Total Returns Growth in Ge, Fr, It, Sp, Nl, Cz, Pl, UK (% y/y) …
UK Office Yield Forecasts (%, 2023-2027) …
France Office Yield Forecasts (%, 2023-2027) …
Belgium Office Yield Forecasts (%, 2023-2027) …
UK Retail Rental Value Growth Forecasts (% y/y, 2023-2027) …
Spain Retail Rental Value Growth Forecasts (% y/y, 2023-2027) …
Belgium Retail Rental Value Growth Forecasts (% y/y, 2023-2027) …
Spain Office Rental Value Growth Forecasts (% y/y, 2023-2027) …
Germany Office Capital Value Growth Forecasts (% y/y, 2023-2027) …
We think Norges Bank will go through with its plan to raise its policy rate by 25bp next week, to 4.0%, and follow that up with a final hike in September to 4.25%. At its last meeting, in June, Norges Bank raised its policy rate by 50bp, to 3.75%. That …
Bucharest offices have been CEE’s best performing so far this year, as rent growth has accelerated rapidly. Although we expect growth to slow sharply from 2024, constrained supply of prime space and persistently high inflation suggest prime rents will …
The yield of 10-year Japanese government bonds (JGBs) may come closer to the new “just-in-case” cap of 1.0% in the coming months, but we doubt it will settle that high further ahead. Since the Bank of Japan (BoJ) effectively abandoned Yield Curve Control …
After a strong run since April, inflows into EM bond and equity markets have softened markedly in the past few weeks. Inflows into India, in particular, have weakened. Turkey continues to see sizeable foreign inflows, but these are only a fraction of the …
Inflation hits fresh record high, CBE has more work to do Egypt’s headline inflation hit a fresh record high of 36.5% y/y in July and, with a fresh devaluation of the pound on the cards in the coming months, it will remain elevated for some time. The …
Decline in inflation in line with central bank’s expectations July’s decline in inflation in Norway was broadly in line with the central bank’s forecast. So Norges Bank is likely to go ahead with its planned 25bp rate hike next week. The decline in …
Market conditions continue to worsen Given the recent rise in average mortgage rates to their highest level since 2008, we are not surprised by the further deterioration in the RICS headline survey figures. And as we do not expect market conditions to …
The RBI kept the repo rate on hold at 6.50% today as expected and maintained a hawkish tone amid the recent surge in food prices. It’s unlikely that the rate hiking cycle will restart. But there is a significant risk of the easing cycle that we expect to …
This page has been updated with additional analysis since first publication. The economy contracted in Q2 and we expect continued weakness in the near-term as elevated interest rates and weak global demand weigh on economic output in the Philippines. …
