Today’s favourable reaction in the US stock market to April's softer-than-expected Employment Report has coincided with renewed hopes of interest rate cuts, judging by the initial plunge in the 2-year Treasury yield towards 4.7%. (See Chart 1.) …
3rd May 2024
Fundamentals point to slower wage growth Powell leaves all options open Fed Chair Jerome Powell argued in his post-FOMC press conference this week that, despite the stickiness of inflation in recent months, additional interest rate hikes were still …
SA’s growth pick-up coming too late for the ANC This week, South Africa manufacturing PMI release reinforced our view that an easing drag from electricity outages will support a pick-up in growth over the coming quarters. But stronger growth is coming …
Encouraging start to the year Growth in the region came to a standstill in Q4 of last year, but data released over the past week add to the evidence of a strong rebound in Q1. Admittedly, the flash GDP data from Mexico released on Tuesday showed that, …
Rise in prices paid not yet a concern The fall in the ISM services index to 49.4 in April, from 51.4 in March, suggests that services spending could slow from the 4% annualised in the first quarter. The prices paid index rebounded but, for now, it is …
Trump’s return could benefit India With Donald Trump’s protectionist approach to trade on full display in an interview with the Time magazine this week, what might the implications of a second Trump presidency be for India? India is not as dependent on US …
The 6% fall in the price of Brent oil this week, to around $84 per barrel at the time of writing, was at least partly driven by receding fears that an escalation of hostilities in the Middle East could imperil oil supply. That said, geopolitics in the …
Battle of the survey data ... ESIs vs the PMIs The two survey measures of activity released out of Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) this week appeared to offer quite different insights into the performance of the region’s economies at the start of Q2. …
Policy hasn’t kickstarted lending to developers Bank lending decelerated to its slowest pace on record in March. The sectoral breakdown released this week provides some insight into what’s been behind the slowdown. The big picture is that the property …
Despite the correction in equity markets over the past month, risk premia generally remain low across financial markets. While we expect this to continue as an AI-driven bubble inflates in equity markets, this Update explores four areas that could …
Labour market easing puts rate cuts back on the table April’s employment report was weaker across the board; with employment growth slowing back to the pace from last fall, the unemployment rate ticking up to 3.9% and average hourly earnings growth …
Data released this week showed that euro-zone GDP rose by a stronger-than-expected 0.3% q/q in Q1. And the disinflation process stalled in April, with the headline rate unchanged at 2.4%. (See here.) But GDP was supported by a big rise in construction in …
We’ll be discussing the outlook for Bank of England policy in a 20-minute online briefing at 3pm BST on Thursday 9th May. (Register here .) OECD too downbeat We think the OECD’s new forecast that the UK will grow at a slower rate in 2025 (of 1.0%) than …
Rate cuts still likely despite strong Q1 growth In a speech this week at an Asian Development Bank conference, Bank of Korea Governor Rhee said that strong GDP growth in the first quarter meant the Bank would need to reconsider the timing of possible …
Inflation in Norway has been falling faster than Norges Bank expected for some time, but with the core rate still a long way above target, today’s communications show that policymakers are not counting their chickens. While they now seem to envisage …
Inflation pressures stabilising, rate cuts still some way off The slightly smaller-than-expected rise in Turkish inflation in April to 69.8% y/y (consensus 70.3%) offers encouraging signs that price pressures have softened again. The 3.2% m/m increase was …
Government intervenes in FX market yet again As Japanese markets were closed due to Sh ō wa day, the yen surpassed 160 against the dollar in thin trading on Monday, the weakest it has been since the mid-1980s. While the Ministry of Finance refused to …
RBNZ caught between a rock and a hard place We learnt this week that New Zealand’s labour market deteriorated further last quarter. On the back of unexpected job shedding, the unemployment rate rose from 4.0% to 4.3% in Q1, above the RBNZ’s forecast of …
The latest manufacturing PMIs suggest that global industry continued to recover at the start of Q2, but that this was entirely due to higher output in emerging markets, while activity remained much weaker in advanced economies. Meanwhile, the increase in …
2nd May 2024
This week’s FOMC meeting supports our view that bond yields will fall back a bit further this year. Overall, financial markets took yesterday’s FOMC meeting and the following press conference as fairly dovish . Arguably, the key point in Chair Powell’s …
The EM manufacturing PMI for April showed that industry continued its strong start to the year through to the beginning of Q2. At a regional level, the narrative was largely unchanged: India remains the star performer, while industry in Central Europe …
Our forecast that the Bank of Canada will cut interest rates earlier and more aggressively than the Federal Reserve means that the loonie is likely to depreciate, but we doubt the move will be large enough to push up imported goods inflation …
Many central banks are concerned about the fact that services inflation has remained too high. But we think the risks in Switzerland are skewed to the downside and, in our view, outweigh the upside risks from goods prices. This leaves us comfortable with …
The Riksbank is likely to kick off its easing cycle next week by cutting its policy rate from 4.0% to 3.75%. Beyond that, our forecast is for 100bp of rate cuts this year which is substantially more than investors are anticipating, as inflation looks on …
Is Saudi Arabia moving away from China’s orbit? Reports that the US and Saudi Arabia are close to a new security pact would, if confirmed, cause us to re-evaluate our view of the Kingdom’s alignment in a fracturing global economy. Prior to the start of …
The revolution in remote work has not been kind to the office sector. But smaller, higher quality offices have performed relatively well over the past couple of years. With fewer workers in the office firms have been able to cut space requirements and …
With downtowns generally suffering most from the growth in remote work, the hardest-hit cities such as San Francisco are now seeing this impact other revenue streams too, not least tourism. While there are promising signs that conversions from office to …
External demand still weak Despite the slump in March, export volumes grew strongly over the first quarter and net trade appears to have been behind about half of the likely 2.5% annualised rise in first-quarter GDP. Nonetheless, the fall in March and the …
Euro-zone construction output picked up at the beginning of this year but we don’t think this was the beginning of a sustained rebound. Surveys suggest that output will decline in the next few months, and while rate cuts should support a recovery later in …
Slight hawkish shift at the CNB, but rates to fall further than most expect The communications accompanying the decision by the Czech National Bank (CNB) to cut its policy rate by 50bp again today (to 5.25%) were slightly more hawkish than expected, but …
Deficit narrows; Productivity growth stalls The trade deficit narrowed slightly in March to $69.4bn, from $69.5bn, with exports down by 2.0% m/m and imports falling by 1.6%. The $5.1bn decline in goods exports included a $1.2bn drop in civilian aircraft …
While Chinese lending to Africa has fallen sharply from its peak last decade, China will remain a big player in the region’s external financing – particularly if some of the foreign exchange generated by China’s enormous trade surplus is recycled in …
Korea is one of the few countries in the region where inflation is still above target. However, with economic growth set to slow and the government stepping up efforts to bring food prices down, we expect the headline rate to fall back to target by the …
On Tuesday we held a Drop-in on the outlook for the German economy. This Update summarises the key points that we discussed and answers some of the questions that we received during the event. 1. Do the Q1 GDP data mean Germany is out of recession? The …
We envisage cyclical sectors generally continuing to outperform defensive ones in the S&P 500 through the end of 2025. That reflects our view about the economic outlook; our expectation that hype around artificial intelligence (AI) will grow; our forecast …
PMI bounces as electricity supply improves South Africa’s manufacturing PMI jumped in April, adding to signs the economy is finally moving on from stagnation as the electricity situation improves. And with price pressures still elevated, the SARB looks …
The weakness in euro-zone investment in Q1 highlights that the pricing correction to date has not been enough to entice investors back to the sector. Lower market interest rates will support the recovery in H2, but we expect further rises in property …
Strong Q1 growth masks lacklustre domestic recovery Hong Kong’s GDP surprised to the upside in Q1, expanding by 2.3% q/q, up from a downwardly-revised 0.4% q/q in Q4 (the Bloomberg median was +0.9 and out forecast was +0.8%). While growth slowed in y/y …
Rapid growth in unit labour costs poses an upside risk to core inflation in many advanced economies. However, firms’ pricing power is weakening and we think that it will continue to do so. As a result, higher labour costs will not be passed on in full and …
We’ll be discussing the outlook for Bank of England policy in a 20-minute online briefing at 3pm BST on Thursday 9 th May. (Register here .) Rates on hold at 5.25% and Bank unlikely to provide a strong hint first cut will be soon Faster fall in inflation …
This page has been updated with additional analysis since first publication. Industry dragging on the CEE recovery The weak set of manufacturing PMIs out of Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) for April suggest that industrial sectors remained a drag on the …
Swiss CPI jumps, but will fall in the coming months The jump in Switzerland’s inflation rate in April was largely due to increases in the volatile food and fuel components. While the data increase our confidence that the SNB will not cut interest rates at …
The PMIs from Emerging Asia remained weak in April. We think manufacturing activity across most of Asia will remain subdued in the near term but output in Taiwan and Korea is likely to hold up better than that in the rest of the region. The weighted …
Fed biding its time Fed Chair Jerome Powell argued in his post-FOMC press conference that, despite the stickiness of inflation in recent months, additional interest rate hikes were still “unlikely”. Moreover, while he admitted that the strong start to the …
1st May 2024
Fed statement acknowledges inflation rebound; announces QT taper The Fed admitted in the statement issued after today’s FOMC meeting that “in recent months, there has been a lack of further progress toward the… 2% inflation objective”. Otherwise, today’s …
Chinese policymakers won’t risk reliving the turmoil of 2015 by engineering a sudden devaluation of the renminbi . They may allow the currency to weaken gradually over the coming years to help industry deal with oversupply or to offset the impact of new …
Dollar’s strength not a threat to US economy The dollar’s rise is attracting a lot of attention, but is nowhere near big enough yet to have any significant impact on US inflation, although it does appear to be weighing on exports. In real trade-weighted …
We doubt the recent rise in US bond yields will continue much further, or significantly undermine the prospects of US equities. The 10-year Treasury yield has fallen back a bit today ahead of the FOMC’s policy announcement, as the US Treasury’s Quarterly …
This interactive dashboard allows you to explore all of our forecasts and key data for major economies. If you have subscriber access to the data underlying this redesigned dashboard, you can download it via the menu options in the top right of each chart …
The March JOLTS data showed clearer signs that labour market tightness is continuing to ease. Slower downward progress in wage growth could be concerning, but for now it still appears to be moving broadly in line with the forward-looking indicators, which …
