The surge in Chapter 11 business bankruptcy filings last quarter is not as bad as it looks, as many of them related to the WeWork failure. Excluding those, bankruptcies trended lower at the end of 2023 and, with corporate bond yields falling sharply in …
10th January 2024
Some ECB Governing Council Members have called for an increase in reserves requirements, primarily in order to reduce the Eurosystem’s interest expenditure. If implemented – which we think is likely – this would have the effect of tightening monetary …
The surge in US exports of energy over the coming five years will ensure that the US remains a major supplier of fossil fuels to the rest of the world. A large proportion of these exports will be LNG, as new export terminals come online. But exports of …
ECB policymakers still insist that monetary policy will remain tight throughout the first half of the year, if not longer. But we think that weakness in economic activity and lower inflation will prompt them to start cutting in April. And in contrast to …
Inflation slowing, but will remain above target until mid-2025 Egypt’s headline inflation rate eased for a third consecutive from 34.6% y/y in November to 33.6% y/y in December. Comments last night suggest that an enhanced IMF deal is near, which is …
This page has been updated with additional analysis since first publication. Fall in core inflation confirms Norges Bank is finished with rate hikes The fact that core inflation fell and the headline rate was unchanged in December confirms that Norges …
This page has been updated with additional analysis since first publication. Disinflation will pave the way for policy loosening before long With price pressures cooling in earnest, we’re growing increasingly confident in our call that the RBA will start …
This page has been updated with additional analysis since first publication. Virtuous cycle will get renewed boost this year Wage growth slowed sharply in November, driven by a plunge in bonus payments. While we expect the labour market to soften in the …
Our total returns forecasts for 2024 are significantly below consensus, as we predict that value falls will reach double digits for the second consecutive year. Retail stands out as the only sector where we expect positive returns, but distress in the …
9th January 2024
A continued pull-back in the spreads of US private-label commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) since the start of 2024, at a time when those of US high-yield corporate bonds have edged up (see Chart 1) and “risky” assets in general have come under …
The surge in spending by state & local governments has boosted economic growth over the past year but, with tax revenues falling back in recent quarters, that boom is now set to fade. While there has been plenty of commentary on the support to the economy …
Aggregate EM GDP growth is set to slow in 2024, but as important as the overall story is understanding the different cycles that are playing out at a country level. We think some countries that performed surprisingly well last year (notably Mexico and …
Tougher times ahead for exporters Export volumes were little changed in November but the surveys suggest that tougher times lie ahead, with export orders seemingly falling fast in December. The trade surplus halved to $1.6bn in November as exports …
Falling imports and exports suggests demand softening at home and abroad The weakness of both exports and imports in November suggests that weaker growth overseas is now being matched by a softening in domestic demand too. The trade deficit shrank …
NBP has limited scope for rate cuts in 2024 The National Bank of Poland (NBP) left interest rates on hold again today, at 5.75%, and we continue to think that the scope for monetary loosening ahead is relatively limited. While the consensus view in recent …
Sharper-than-expected rise in inflation leaves February rate cut in balance The larger-than-expected rise in Mexico’s headline inflation rate to 4.7% y/y in December was mainly due to higher non-core inflation but, even so, the odds of Banxico beginning …
The sharp drop in net foreign direct investment (FDI) inflows into India over the past year was in part a consequence of the rise in global interest rates and the worsening global economic backdrop. But it was also due to a clampdown on the roundtripping …
Industrial output in Germany is likely to follow November’s decline with further falls this year. While the recent fall in natural gas prices could help to stem the bleeding in the near term, energy costs are still high. And weak demand will compound …
This page has been updated with additional analysis since first publication. RBA will look past Black Friday spending spree Although retail sales bounced back with a vengeance in November, that result largely reflected a one-off boost from Black Friday …
This page has been updated with additional analysis since first publication. Inflation will jump again before long Inflation excluding fresh food came close to the Bank of Japan’s 2% target in December, but it will jump to nearly 3% from February and …
8th January 2024
China’s survey data paint a downbeat picture of demand in the world’s largest commodity consumer. But we don’t think the economic reality is quite so bleak. Caroline Bain , our Chief Commodities Economist, and Julian Evans-Pritchard , our Head of China …
Despite bouncing back a bit in recent days, the spreads of corporate bonds remain near their lowest levels in two years, making them vulnerable to a deterioration in economic conditions. Financial markets are starting the year on the back foot. After a …
Given the thick smog covering parts of South Asia, forcing schools to shut down and disrupting activity, this Update takes a closer look into the economics of air pollution. Air pollution is mostly caused by the burning of fuels and biomass, vehicle …
Although bonds and equities have started the year on the back foot, which may continue in the near term, we think they’ll fare better over the year as a whole. We project especially large gains for equities. Any renewed hopes for a “soft landing” prompted …
The optimism about Mexico’s economic prospects from the “nearshoring” of supply chains looks overdone in our view. Sectors where Mexico is already well established, such as autos and some electronics products, stand to benefit. But without major reforms …
This page has been updated with additional analysis since first publication. Euro-zone activity fell in Q4, services price pressures still look strong The data published this morning are consistent with our view that euro-zone GDP is more likely to have …
This page has been updated with additional analysis since first publication. Regional sentiment continues to recover The European Commission's Economic Sentiment Indicators for Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) generally continued to rise in December and …
Entering 2024 on a slightly stronger footing South Africa’s manufacturing PMI rose to an 11-month high in December, helped by an easing of loadshedding. Alongside hopes that recent freight problems are past the worst, this chimes with our view that there …
This page has been updated with additional analysis. Rise in Swiss inflation will be reversed in January The unexpected increase in Swiss inflation in December raises some doubt as to whether rates will be cut soon. However, we suspect that the headline …
The recent sharp fall in Japan’s ratio of public debt to GDP reflects one-off factors that won’t be sustained. While the influence of rising bond yields on the trajectory of the public finances will largely be offset by higher inflation and nominal GDP …
The Fed-triggered financial market exuberance which ended 2023 hasn’t carried into the new year, with yields rising and equities struggling. Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing explains what’s changed – and what hasn’t – to explain this mood shift. He …
5th January 2024
In what was an extremely volatile year for the housing market, we made two key forecasting errors. Firstly, we didn’t anticipate the extent of the rise in mortgage rates. Because of that, we underestimated how tight supply in the existing housing market …
The dollar’s strong start to 2024 has partly reversed today as the surprisingly weak US ISM non-manufacturing survey has more than offset another robust US non-farm payrolls report . Even so, the greenback remains up on the week as interest rate …
This week was a mixed bag for commodities . Gold and silver prices fell as US interest rate expectations rose and the dollar strengthened. By contrast, natural gas prices in the US and Europe edged higher on the back of forecasts for colder weather in the …
Today’s plunge in the employment component of the US ISM services survey more than took the shine off a slightly stronger than expected US Employment Report . In doing so, it appears to have called at least a temporary halt to the recent correction in the …
Nigeria spending up, but no more deficit financing This week, Nigeria signed its 2024 budget into law. Spending is projected to be higher than originally anticipated, although officials are signalling that it will be financed by higher revenues rather …
Fed still coy about QT end-game FOMC minutes put focus on inflation data The minutes of the mid-December FOMC meeting did not dissuade us that the Fed will start to cut interest rates from this March onwards. Admittedly, officials warned that “they would …
Conditions in the housing market seem to be improving, with the local real estate board data pointing to a big improvement in the home sales-to-new listing ratio in December. While the unseasonably warm weather may have played a role and house prices …
BoI starts easing cycle, but uncertainty remains high Israel’s central bank started its monetary easing cycle this week with a 25bp interest rate cut – a move that came a bit sooner than we’d expected. But inflation risks are greater than most anticipate, …
Weak ISMs should probably be taken with a pinch of salt The plunge in the ISM services index to a 7-month low in December suggests, at face value, that the economy is sliding into recession. But the poor relationship between the surveys and the hard …
There are still plenty of downside risks to our below-consensus forecast that the economy will stagnate in 2024 with GDP growth of 0.0%. (See here .) But the news over the past week has highlighted three upsides. First, the slide in 2-year and 5-year …
Will the BoK turn dovish? The Bank of Korea looks almost certain to leave interest rates unchanged at its meeting on Thursday. But with inflation falling and concerns about the economy mounting, we expect the central bank to strike a more dovish tone …
Argentina and the IMF to tango again? An IMF delegation is set to meet with Argentine officials in Buenos Aires today to discuss the country’s $44bn program that – in the Fund’s words – had “ gone off track ” in August under the previous Peronist …
Employment gains still dominated by non-cyclical growth The slightly bigger-than-expected 216,000 gain in non-farm payrolls (consensus estimate was 170,000) in December coupled with a second consecutive 0.4% m/m gain in average hourly earnings means that …
This page has been updated with additional analysis since first publication. Jump in wage growth a concern for the Bank The unchanged level of employment in December is consistent with the message from the business surveys that labour demand has weakened …
Data released this week support our key calls on the euro-zone for the upcoming year. First, the economy looks likely to be weaker than most anticipate. Although the final euro-zone Composite PMI for December, released on Thursday, was revised up from the …
Commodities Overview Chart Pack (Jan. 2024) …
Stubbornly high inflation pushed risk-free rates, and yields, somewhat higher than we had anticipated by the end of 2023. By contrast, rental growth proved surprisingly resilient even as the economy slowed to a crawl. But with economic growth set to be …
