ECB almost certain to raise interest rates by 25bp next week. And likely to have a bias towards further tightening. We expect Lagarde to emphasise that policy will remain tight for a long time. A 25bp interest rate rise next week, taking the deposit …
8th June 2023
A handful of EM central banks were quick out of the blocks to tighten monetary policy in 2021 and one of the key lessons of the past year or so is that underlying inflation pressure is still proving incredibly hard to beat. The fight against inflation …
Overview – The region’s strong start to the year is unlikely to be sustained and we expect growth across Latin America to come in weaker than most expect this year and next. Inflation will continue to fall, but core price pressures are likely to remain …
Our updated industrial metros analysis, which now incorporates the current vacancy rate, continues to point to Memphis as having the strongest prospects for rent growth over a three-year horizon. Miami, Orlando, San Diego, LA and Nashville also rank …
Is Saudi Arabia taking its eye off the ball? Outside of the usual economics newsflow this week, Saudi Arabia has been the hot topic in the footballing and golfing world. It was announced control of four Saudi Pro League clubs is being transferred to the …
Dismal economic growth has established the Korean won as one of the worst-performing emerging market (EM) currencies against the dollar this year. We expect Korea’s bleak growth prospects and unfavourable yield gaps to keep the won weak, though its …
Inflation drops, but rate cuts still some time away Headline inflation in Mexico dropped to a 21-month low of 5.8% y/y in May and will continue to decline over the coming months. That said, the strong labour market and rapid wage growth mean that …
Preventing large-scale leaks of methane from Turkmenistan’s creaking infrastructure would be a welcome sign of emissions-cutting efforts broadening out from carbon dioxide to include other harmful greenhouse gases too. But while Turkmenistan has become …
Euro-zone in recession, outlook poor News that GDP contracted in Q1 after all means that the euro-zone has already fallen into a technical recession. Given that the impact of policy tightening is yet to fully feed through, we suspect that the economy will …
Refinancing risks increase The recent upward revision to our mortgage rate forecast and the fact that the majority of those that need to refinance this year are on two-year fixes means that we are now more worried about the risk posed by refinancing. …
Recent economic difficulties have forced online retail to tighten their returns policies. At face value, this seems good news for retail property as it may shift demand back to stores for certain categories. However the change is unlikely to be a big …
EZ already in recession, outlook still poor News that GDP contracted in Q1 after all means that the euro-zone has already fallen into a technical recession. We suspect that the economy will contract further over the rest of this year. Data released today …
The RBI’s decision to keep the repo rate on hold (at 6.50%) today comes as no surprise given the recent sharp drop in inflation. The central bank continues to strike a hawkish tone and the door remains ajar for further hikes. But with headline inflation …
Normalising supply could make future drop in demand more damaging The significant improvement in the RICS survey in May echoed the pause in house price falls in the past few months. But the survey also showed an increase in supply, which could …
RBI could be laying groundwork for cuts before long The RBI’s decision to keep the repo rate on hold (at 6.50%) today comes as no surprise given the recent sharp drop in inflation. The door remains ajar for further hikes but with headline inflation set to …
Net trade to boost GDP in Q2 The narrowing of the trade surplus in April was driven in large part by a deterioration in the terms of trade. We think net exports will actually provide a modest boost to GDP growth this quarter. The decline in the trade …
Japan’s carmakers face an existential threat from the emergence of cheap EV exports from China. Even in a benign scenario where carmakers eventually jump on the EV bandwagon, we suspect that they would have to rely on battery technology from China and …
Net trade to boost GDP in Q2 The rise in the import bill in April likely overstates the strength of domestic demand in Australia. The decline in the trade surplus to $11.2bn in April, from a downwards-revised $14.8bn in March, was sharper than most had …
We expect the RBI to keep interest rates on hold on Thursday (05.30 BST) A revision to euro-zone Q1 GDP could show the bloc in a technical recession (10.00 BST) Sign up for our Drop-In to unpack the major June central bank meetings here Key Market …
7th June 2023
Overview – Most commodity prices have moved lower over the past month as concerns about demand loomed large and the US dollar strengthened. We think that prices will continue to struggle over the next few months, but energy and metals prices should rise …
June pause to be followed by July hike, taking rates to a peak of 5.25%-5.50% Labour market resilience means we now don’t expect rates to be cut until Q1 next year Fed funds target range to fall to 2.75%-3.00% by end-2024 There appears to be enough …
The Bank of Canada’s 25bp interest rate hike today is unlikely to be the last, with the rapid turnaround in the housing market and concerning underlying inflation dynamics raising the case for at least one more hike in July, to take the policy rate to …
According to our proprietary interest rate-sensitive indicators, activity in advanced economies has so far proven remarkably resilient to higher interest rates. A lot of this has been due to a rebound in auto sales related to pandemic distortions, whereas …
Bank resumes rate hikes and probably another to come in July The Bank of Canada’s 25bp interest rate hike today is unlikely to be the last, with the rapid turnaround in the housing market and concerning underlying inflation dynamics raising the case for …
Exports still benefitting from easing support shortages Easing supply shortages supported strong export growth in April but, with the surveys of export orders still very weak, that strength is likely to fade soon. Canada’s goods trade surplus widened from …
What will major advanced economy central banks decide at their June meetings, and how will those decisions be messaged? In this special briefing, Paul Ashworth , Andrew Kenningham and Paul Dales , our Chief Economists for the US, Europe and UK, …
Slump in exports to weigh on Q2 GDP growth The widening in the trade deficit to a six-month high of $74.6bn in April, from $60.6bn, means that net external trade is on track to be a big drag on second-quarter GDP growth, with the latter still tracking …
More than €1trn of TLTROs will be redeemed over the next eighteen months, significantly reducing euro-zone banks’ liquidity and pushing up their funding costs as they adjust their balance sheets. Banks may also increase their holdings of government bonds …
This webpage has been updated with a table and chart of key data Inflation hits multi-year low, but rate cuts still some way off The fall in Brazilian inflation to 3.9% y/y in May, alongside the government’s new fiscal framework, has strengthened the …
Growth in China’s commodity imports generally was strong in May, with a notable rise in crude oil imports. While the data are consistent with our above-consensus outlook for China’s growth this year, a note of caution needs to be applied. Export demand …
Exports still benefitting from easing supply shortages Easing supply shortages continued to support export growth in April but, with export orders still very weak, that resilience is likely to fade soon. Canada’s goods trade surplus widened from a …
A version of this report was published as an opinion piece in the Financial Times on Wednesday 7 th June Signs that newly re-elected Turkish president Erdogan is willing to move away from unorthodox economic policies has led to an increase in investor …
The latest crane survey reported a surge in new central London office starts in Q1, which seems poorly timed given a large existing pipeline and waning demand. However a closer look shows that West End refurbishments are behind that surge, as this …
Demand falls to historic low Mortgage applications for home purchase fell to their lowest level in almost 30 years in May, as a renewed rise in mortgage rates weighed on demand. This points to further near-term weakness for home sales, which we think will …
Weak demand to weigh on industry The disappointingly small rebound in German industrial production in April suggests that the boost from lower energy prices and improved global supply conditions at the beginning of the year has run its course. And …
The market optimism which greeted the end of zero-COVID restrictions has quickly given way to gloom after a string of disappointing data releases. Markets are down and speculation is rife that the government will do more to ease policy to give the economy …
Pause in May will give way to renewed falls ahead House prices were unchanged in May according to Halifax. Given that lack of momentum, the increase in mortgage rates following the bad inflation data published on the 24th of the month is set to tip house …
Weak demand to weigh on industry The 0.3% m/m rise in industrial production in April was much smaller than the 2% rebound we had anticipated and weaker than the consensus forecast (+0.6%). Although the decline in March was revised down to 2.1% (previously …
In response to the hawkish shift by RBA Governor Lowe and the further acceleration in unit labour cost growth, we now expect the Bank to lift the cash rate to 4.85% by September. That aggressive monetary tightening will push the Australian economy into a …
RBA could be forced to keep hiking into economic downturn Real GDP growth slowed sharply last quarter as household spending ground to a standstill. However, with productivity falling for a fourth consecutive quarter, unit labour costs grew apace. …
This page has been updated with additional analysis and charts since first publication. Exports stumbled but imports jumped China’s exports contracted year-on-year in May for the first time in three months, with export volumes falling below their …
Flagging productivity raises risk of higher terminal interest rate Although the economy is clearly slowing, dismal productivity gains raise the risk that the RBA will have to raise interest rates above the 4.35% peak we have pencilled in. The 0.2% q/q …
Australia’s central bank hiked rates on Tuesday while policymakers in Poland stood pat We expect the Bank of Canada to raise its policy rate by 25bp to 4.75% (15.00 BST) Trade data from the US and China likely to show a fall in exports in both countries …
6th June 2023
We think that lower commodity prices and improved global supply conditions will bring euro-zone services inflation down from 5% in May to about 3.5% by the middle of next year. Further falls seem likely after that, but the tight labour market means that …
The resolution of the debt ceiling debate has cleared a cloud that was hanging over the US equity market, but we think a darker one – a growth slowdown – still lingers. That’s why we doubt the rest of the year will be particularly positive for the S&P …
NBP remains on pause The National Bank of Poland (NBP) left its main policy rate on hold again today, at 6.75%, and we think that rates will remain unchanged for at least the next few meetings. While we maintain our forecast that interest rates will be …
Many of the factors that explain the UK’s chronically weak GDP growth since the pandemic, such as the shrinking of the UK’s workforce and low export growth, won’t disappear any time soon. This explains why we expect the UK economy’s underperformance to …
Retail sales continue to struggle Household consumption seems to have been subdued at the start of the second quarter as retail sales were unchanged in April. And continued low levels of household confidence suggest that consumption will decline in the …
This webpage has been updated with a table and chart of key data Technical recession dodged, but outlook bleak The 0.4% q/q rise in South Africa’s GDP in Q1 means that the economy once again skirted a technical recession, but the outlook remains bleak. …
