The Calm Before the Storm The tick up in mortgage approvals in May sustained the partial recovery from the slump at the beginning of the year. (See Chart 1.) But the increase reflects earlier declines in mortgage rates and will be cut short by their more …
29th June 2023
Sentiment weakens and points to stagnation The EC Economic Sentiment Indicator (ESI) weakened further in June and is broadly consistent with the economy stagnating at best. We expect the euro-zone’s mild recession to continue for the rest of the year as …
Banks’ exposure to commercial debt hits six-year high Net lending to commercial property remained in positive territory in May at £621m. And over the past three months, lending has totalled £2.3bn, the highest figure since June 2020. Loans for standing …
This page has been updated with additional analysis since first publication. Higher interest rates continue to take a toll on bank lending Higher interest rates continued to weigh on bank lending in May, particularly in the housing market. This effect …
Riksbank likely to hike more than it expects The 25bp rate hike announced by the Riksbank today, which brings the key policy rate to 3.75%, had been strongly signalled at the Riksbank’s last meeting. But the accompanying statement and decisions to …
Central bankers have struck a hawkish tone at the ECB’s forum in Sintra this week, suggesting that rates haven’t yet peaked and cuts are not on the cards for some time. But there were some interesting differences in tone. Most notably, the ECB and BoE …
28th June 2023
Inflation back under 2% The further fall in Spanish HICP inflation will provide some respite for households who have suffered a sharp hit to real household income over the last year. But it will have little sway over ECB decision-making as …
Vietnam’s export-driven economy improved slightly in Q2 but growth was still weak by historical standards. With the external environment likely to remain unfavourable in the second half of the year, we expect the economy to struggle in the coming …
Click here to read the full publication. While “riskier” currencies have generally had the best of it over the past couple of months, the dollar has remained rangebound and, in aggregate, is broadly unchanged on the year. With the euro-zone already in …
We expect the yen ’ s weakness to reverse before long, weighing on the country ’ s stock market. And while the latter might hence hold up a bit better in US - dollar terms, we doubt it will do especially well. Today ’ s gains add to what has been a great …
Risk premia have fallen across the region over the past month. In the region’s largest economy, Nigeria, that has come on the back of a marked policy shift since President Tinubu took office in late-May. Costly fuel subsidies have been removed and the …
This page has been updated with additional analysis since first publication . Economic momentum continued in Q2 The industrial production and retail sales data for Russia for May continue a run of strong data showing that activity has recovered this year. …
Egypt’s path to largest MENA economy by 2050 In an Emerging Markets Update published this week, we highlighted which EMs will rise up the global league table. Within MENA, Egypt’s economy will take Saudi Arabia’s crown as the region’s largest economy by …
Investors generally revised down their interest rate expectations across Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) over the past month, partly reflecting weaker-than-expected inflation prints and more dovish communications from central bankers. Investors are now …
Higher mortgage rates have not only priced many buyers out of the market altogether, but also reduced the size of mortgage those still able to buy can take out. (See Chart 1.) The latest surge in mortgage rates to almost 6% means that, for the same …
The sharp narrowing in India’s current account deficit in Q1 was largely due to the strength in services exports. Looking ahead, we think the deficit will narrow to 1.0% of GDP across 2023 as a result of softer domestic demand and as commodity prices …
NYC employment finally returns to its pre-pandemic peak Total employment growth was resilient across metros in May, recording 0.6% 3m/3m on average. That growth was led again by Boston, Las Vegas and Charlotte, with San Antonio also seeing a rise of over …
Overview – China’s reopening recovery is struggling for momentum and quarter-on-quarter growth will be subdued for the rest of the year. But with policymakers likely to step up support soon, the economy should still make some headway. Consumer Spending – …
Improvement in core inflation not enough to appease ECB The drop in Italy’s headline and core inflation in June is encouraging. But the euro-zone core rate is unlikely to have declined significantly due to base effects related to the anniversary of the …
The effects of tighter monetary policy are very clear in the money and credit data, reinforcing our view that the euro-zone economy will underperform the ECB and consensus forecasts. Data released this morning show that savers continue to tie up their …
US, Canada, UK, Germany & Brazil Headline Inflation (% y/y) …
US, Canada, UK, Germany & Brazil Core Inflation (% y/y) …
Chile Headline and Core Inflation (% y/y, monthly) …
Mexico Headline and Core Inflation (% y/y, monthly) …
Argentina Headline and Core Inflation (% y/y, monthly) …
Table: Population of Ge, Fr, It, Sp, Nl, Cz, Pl, UK (thousands) …
US Average Hourly Earnings (% y/y, monthly) …
Major DM Food Inflation (% y/y, monthly) …
Table: Employment Growth in Ge, Fr, It, Sp, Nl, Cz, Pl, UK (% y/y) …
UK Services Inflation (% y/y, monthly) …
Table: Real GDP in Ge, Fr, It, Sp, Nl, Cz, Pl, UK (constant LCU) …
UK Weekly Earnings Growth (% 3myy, including bonuses, monthly) …
US Food & Food At Home Inflation (% y/y) …
Table: Nominal GDP in Ge, Fr, It, Sp, Nl, Cz, Pl, UK (current LCU) …
Euro-zone Energy Inflation (% y/y, monthly) …
Table: Real Domestic Demand Growth in Ge, Fr, It, Sp, Nl, UK (% y/y) …
Canada Food & Food At Home Inflation (% y/y) …
UK Energy Inflation (% y/y, monthly) …
Table: Industrial Production Growth in Ge, Fr, it, Sp, Nl, Cz, Pl, UK (% y/y) …
Table: Real Imports of Goods & Services Growth in Ge, Fr, It, Sp, Nl, Cz, Pl, UK (% y/y) …
Euro-zone Services Inflation (% y/y, monthly) …
Table: 10-year Government Bond Yield in Ge, Fr, It, Sp, Nl, Cz, Pl, UK (%, end of year) …
Luxembourg Headline and Core Inflation (% y/y, quarterly) …
Table: Real Exports of Goods & Services Growth in Ge, Fr, It, Sp, Nl, Cz, Pl, UK (% y/y) …
UK Food & Non-alcoholic Beverages Inflation (% y/y, monthly) …
Table: Headline Inflation in Ge, Fr, It, Sp, Nl, Cz, Pl, UK (% y/y) …
Table: Real GDP Growth in Ge, Fr, It, Sp, Nl, Cz, Pl, UK (% y/y) …
US, Canada, UK & Euro-zone Real Household Disposable Income (% y/y) …
Euro-zone Core Goods Inflation (% y/y, monthly) …
Table: Real Consumer Spending Growth in Ge, Fr, It, Sp, Nl, Cz, Pl, UK (% y/y) …
