Table: Capital Economics China Activity Proxy Values (Jan. & Feb. data are averaged) …
12th July 2023
China Activity Proxy - Sectors (% y/y) …
India Policy Interest Rate (%, quarterly) …
UK Policy Interest Rate (%, quarterly) …
Japan Policy Interest Rate (%, quarterly) …
Brazil Unemployment Rate (%, annual) …
Poland Unemployment Rate (%, annual) …
Germany Unemployment Rate (%, annual) …
Luxembourg Unemployment Rate (%, quarterly) …
Euro-zone Unemployment Rate (%, quarterly) …
Canada Unemployment Rate (%, quarterly) …
UK Unemployment Rate (%, quarterly) …
Japan Unemployment Rate (%, quarterly) …
France Unemployment Rate (%, monthly) …
Romania Current Account Balance (% of GDP) …
Ireland Current Account Balance (% of GDP) …
UK Government Budget Balance (% of GDP, long-term forecast) …
UK Government Budget Balance (% of GDP) …
UK Mortgage Advances Values (£bn) …
Ireland 10Y Government Bond Yield (%, end of quarter) …
China 10Y Government Bond Yield (%, end of quarter) …
But the labour market is softening and wage growth should bring services inflation down …
Headline and core inflation are well past their peaks …
Inflation should be near target by year-end …
The unemployment rate remains very low …
Housing downturn set to weigh on new dwellings inflation …
Used vehicle prices still have a long way to fall …
Energy inflation likely to remain muted …
And producer prices imply food CPI inflation will continue to fall …
US Personal Saving Rate (%, annual) …
United Kingdom Consumer Spending (% q/q) …
Canada Policy Interest Rate (%, annual long-term forecast) …
Table: Policy Interest Rate in Middle East & North Africa Economies (%, end of period) …
Table: Key UK Commercial Property Forecasts …
United Kingdom Office Valuation Score …
Qatar Real GDP (% y/y) …
Panama Real GDP (% y/y) …
Poland Real GDP (% y/y) …
Vietnam Real GDP (% y/y) …
Spain Real GDP (% y/y, period averages) …
Italy Real GDP (% y/y) …
Japan Real GDP (% y/y, period averages) …
Latin America Real GDP (% y/y) …
Emerging Europe Real GDP (% y/y) …
UK Underlying Inflation (% y/y) …
Probability that US economy is currently in recession …
Regional Fed Alternative Core Inflation Measures (% y/y) …
US CPI New & Used Vehicle Prices (1982-84 = 100) …
US PCE Inflation (% y/y) …
UK CPI and RPI Inflation (% y/y) …
