Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack IMF deals in choppy waters Balance of payments strains have prompted Egypt, Morocco and Tunisia to turn to the IMF over the past six months or so, but agreements in Egypt and Tunisia are faltering. The IMF postponed its first... 26th April 2023 · 12 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update MNB sets the stage for loosening cycle The Hungarian central bank (MNB) slashed the upper end of its interest rate corridor today by 450bp, to 20.50% and, while this move alone won’t loosen monetary conditions, it is likely to be followed... 25th April 2023 · 4 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack The monetary policy tide is (slowly) turning EM central banks have, in general, remained in hawkish mood over recent weeks. Tightening cycles have continued in Mexico, Colombia and South Africa in response to high inflation, while policymakers... 24th April 2023 · 9 mins read
India Economics Weekly Tight-lipped MPC won’t need to resume rate hikes The minutes of the MPC's April meeting - in which the repo rate was kept on hold at 6.50% - show that the majority of the panel is willing to resume policy tightening should the data warrant it. But... 21st April 2023 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update CEE: current account improvement to continue Large current account deficits across CEE have started to narrow in recent months and we think that this will continue as slowing economies and lower energy prices shrink import bills. This will... 20th April 2023 · 3 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Aramco-PIF, COP28, Tunisia politics, Black Sea grain The latest transfer of a 4% stake in Aramco by the Saudi government to the Public Investment Fund will help meet the Kingdom meet its Vision 2030 goals, but it will not reduce the state’s dependency... 20th April 2023 · 6 mins read
India Chart Pack The geopolitical balancing act India is benefitting from maintaining its historic unaligned stance in tensions between the US and Russia. Since the start of the war in Ukraine, India has been ramping up oil imports from Russia to... 20th April 2023 · 10 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Inflation expectations fall, but reasons for caution Our dataset on inflation expectations across EMs shows some encouraging falls since 2022 and supports our view that, with EM inflation likely to fall further, monetary easing cycles will start in the... 19th April 2023 · 5 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Debt restructuring in a fracturing global economy The increasingly diverse array of creditors to debt-distressed EM governments – and the difficulties in getting China and Western lenders to see eye to eye – is already gumming up sovereign debt... 17th April 2023 · 4 mins read
China Economics Weekly What to make of the recovery so far Mixed recent data have fuelled an inconclusive debate about the strength of China’s economic rebound and how much need there is for additional policy support. In our view, most evidence suggests that... 14th April 2023 · 8 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EM inflation: on the edge of the descent The raft of EM CPI figures out this week show that headline inflation is, in aggregate, finally starting to fall significantly, and we expect it to decline further in the coming months. But core... 13th April 2023 · 3 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Rapid Response Saudi Arabia Inflation (Mar. 2023) Saudi Arabia’s headline inflation rate slowed from 3.0% y/y in February to 2.7% y/y in March as both food and non-food inflation decreased last month. We think that inflation will continue to ease... 13th April 2023 · 2 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Egyptian inflation, Tunisia-IMF, end to the Yemen war? Headline inflation in Egypt accelerated to its fastest pace since mid-2017 last month and, while there are tentative signs that it could be near its peak, the risk of another devaluation would push it... 13th April 2023 · 6 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Russia Consumer Prices (Mar.) Russian inflation fell sharply in March, to 3.5% y/y, as the surge in prices immediately after the war started to fall out of the annual comparison. The 0.4% m/m increase suggests that price pressures... 12th April 2023 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Military providing only a small boost to Russia’s economy We’re not convinced by the arguments currently doing the rounds that military spending in Russia artificially boosted GDP in a significant way last year. While military spending has increased further... 12th April 2023 · 5 mins read
India Data Response Consumer Prices (Mar.) & Industrial Production (Feb.) The drop in headline consumer price inflation back to within the RBI’s 2-6% target range in March supports our view that the central bank’s hiking cycle has come to an end. 12th April 2023 · 2 mins read
