Emerging Europe Economics Update Strong FDI inflows likely to continue in CEE The surge in FDI inflows to a 15-year high in Central and Eastern Europe last year will partly unwind this year given the weaker global macro backdrop. But we think that a large part of the increase... 17th January 2023 · 3 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Where are EM debt risks greatest? It looks highly likely that Tunisia’s government will this year follow in the footsteps of Sri Lanka and Ghana by defaulting on its external debts. Fortunately, public debt risks elsewhere don’t look... 17th January 2023 · 4 mins read
Global Markets Update Revising our financial market forecasts for China We have revised up our forecasts for equities in China, given a brighter outlook for the economy there. We have also increased our China 10-year sovereign bond yield forecast for end-2023, as we think... 13th January 2023 · 4 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Disinflation takes hold in CEE, Russia’s budget pressures This week brought the clearest evidence yet that the disinflation process in Central Europe is underway as most economies experienced a broad-based easing of price pressures in December. This is... 13th January 2023 · 7 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Emerging Markets Capital Flows Monitor Foreign capital inflows into EMs have picked up a little since the beginning of the year. This should provide some relief to those countries with sizeable current account deficits, including Chile... 11th January 2023 · 2 mins read
Capital Daily What to make of China’s ongoing re-opening The speed of China’s ongoing reopening, and how quickly the country’s economy seems to have absorbed its impact, has surprised many and prompted big moves in the country’s financial markets. We think... 10th January 2023 · 6 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update A look ahead to EM elections in 2023 In this Update, we take a look at the key elections that are scheduled across the emerging world this year. The most notable ones are in Argentina, Nigeria and Turkey, where opposition victories could... 10th January 2023 · 4 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Europe’s energy crisis losing its bite The narrative surrounding Europe's energy crisis has shifted in recent weeks as warmer-than-normal winter temperatures have reduced heating demand, gas stocks have remained at high levels and gas... 6th January 2023 · 8 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update What does China’s end of zero-COVID mean for EMs? China’s abandonment of its zero-COVID policy could lead to supply chain disruption in other EMs, particularly other parts of Asia and Mexico, though we’re not too concerned yet. And outbound Chinese... 4th January 2023 · 3 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EM industry: ends 2022 on a weak footing Although the manufacturing PMIs for December picked up in some highly-open EMs in Asia and Central Europe, industry in these countries remains very weak. And the surveys suggest that activity has... 3rd January 2023 · 2 mins read
DM Markets Chart Pack Global recession still doesn’t seem fully priced in We think investors are still too optimistic on global growth, and that “risky” assets will struggle over the first half of 2023 as a result. This Global Markets Chart Book combines our DM and EM... 22nd December 2022 · 10 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack Tightening cycles in their final throes Tightening cycles have been a key feature of 2022 across the emerging world, but the end is in sight as we enter 2023. Some EM central banks that began tightening early – for example Brazil, Chile and... 21st December 2022 · 8 mins read
Global Markets Update We think EM yields will end 2023 below current levels We expect lower global risk appetite, as well as rising country-specific risk premia in some cases, to put upward pressure on the yields of 10-year local-currency government bonds in emerging markets... 21st December 2022 · 4 mins read
Emerging Markets Economic Outlook A difficult year ahead The sharp slowdown in EM GDP growth seen in 2022 is likely to be followed by further weakness across most of the emerging world in 2023. Sluggish growth and falling inflation will at least allow... 20th December 2022 · 2 mins read
Event The World in 2023 - What to Expect in Advanced and Emerging Economies 1673337600 Chief Global Economist Jennifer McKeown and colleagues from across our macro services held a special briefing on what to expect from major DMs and EMs in 2023.
Emerging Europe Chart Pack CEE central banks still a long way from turning to cuts Central banks across Central and Eastern Europe have left interest rates on hold over the past month or so but their communications have continued to strike a relatively hawkish tone. Hungary’s... 19th December 2022 · 11 mins read