Event Africa Drop-In: Nigeria’s crunch presidential election 23rd February 2023, 2:00PM GMT Nigerians go to the polls on 25th February for general elections which could put the country on a very different path. Will the outcome of the vote end years of economic mismanagement and usher in a…
Emerging Markets Economics Update EM central banks: earlier to hike, earlier to cut The raft of EM central bank meetings over the past couple of weeks reinforces the view that monetary tightening cycles have now drawn to a close or are very close to doing so, several months earlier... 10th February 2023 · 4 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Emerging Markets Capital Flows Monitor Foreign capital inflows have been soft this year in spite of the improvement in the economic outlook for EMs and the weaker dollar. And the very latest data suggest that capital has flowed out of EMs... 9th February 2023 · 2 mins read
Capital Daily EM LC bond yields will probably fall a bit further by end-2023 We think emerging market (EM) local-currency (LC) sovereign bond yields will generally fall a bit further by end-2023. 8th February 2023 · 5 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update First thoughts on Turkey’s earthquakes The recent earthquakes that hit Turkey and Syria are a human tragedy and foremost in everyone’s minds. Nonetheless, the financial markets will also need to bear in mind the economic cost and, to the... 7th February 2023 · 4 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Geopolitical tensions beginning to enter debt talks Investors’ concerns about sovereign debt risks in frontier markets have eased a touch recently but several countries, particularly Tunisia and Pakistan, remain on the path to default. The latest (and... 7th February 2023 · 5 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update China’s re-opening and EMs: three key questions We’ve received a lot of questions recently about the impact of China’s re-opening on EMs, including at our monthly Drop-in today. This Update answers three key questions on the winners and losers, the... 2nd February 2023 · 4 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EM banks well placed to face rising loan losses EM banks will face an increase in loan losses this year, but the good news is that banking sectors on the whole appear well-placed to absorb these, particularly in parts of Latin America, Emerging... 2nd February 2023 · 4 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EM industry: brighter outlook, but headwinds persist The manufacturing PMIs picked up in most emerging markets in January, offering hope that the worst for EM industry may have now passed. But activity remains soft against the backdrop of high interest... 1st February 2023 · 2 mins read
EM Markets Chart Pack China’s recovery may continue to benefit EM equities We think the rapid economic recovery in China will lead to further gains in equities in China and other emerging markets this year. 31st January 2023 · 9 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EM consumers: now feeling the pinch Consumer spending in emerging markets initially recovered quickly from the pandemic, but it looks like high interest rates and inflation caused spending growth to slow sharply over the second half of... 27th January 2023 · 4 mins read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Growth outlook brightens, but tough times still ahead The growth outlook for 2023 across Central and Eastern Europe has brightened a bit over the past month. Wholesale European natural gas prices have continued to fall sharply and survey measures of... 26th January 2023 · 14 mins read
China Economics Update Lifting the official retirement age is not the answer The contraction in China’s population has triggered renewed discussion of what the government could do to counter the demographic drag. One popular suggestion is to lift China’s statutory retirement... 25th January 2023 · 4 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Higher commodity prices and the impact on EMs China’s re-opening will have a significant impact on the rest of the emerging world by lifting commodity prices. That will improve the terms of trade of EM commodity producers, particularly Chile... 25th January 2023 · 3 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack EM prospects brighten at the start of the year The outlook for emerging markets is looking better than it did just a few weeks ago. Most obviously, China’s shift to living with COVID means that its economy will rebound far sooner than we had... 24th January 2023 · 9 mins read
Asset Allocation Update Is China’s stock market still relatively appealing? The powerful re-opening rally in China’s stock market has eroded a large part of the valuation gap that led us to judge that equities there were relatively appealing a couple of months ago. That said... 18th January 2023 · 5 mins read