Emerging Markets Economics Update The SVB collapse & contagion risks in EMs At the time of writing, financial markets appear to be stabilising after the turmoil caused by the collapse of SVB. And it doesn’t look like EMs have suffered large capital outflows or strains in... 14th March 2023 · 5 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Turkey Activity Data (Jan.) The large increases in industrial production and retail sales in Turkey in January suggest that the economy got off to a strong start in early 2023. Activity will have been disrupted from the... 13th March 2023 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Russia Consumer Prices (Feb.) Russian inflation came in slightly softer than expected in February, at 11.0% y/y, and it will fall to the central bank’s 4% target in March as base effects pass through. We don’t think there’s been... 10th March 2023 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Hawkish DM central banks may delay rate cuts in CEE The growing expectation that interest rates in developed markets will rise further and stay higher for longer than previously anticipated isn’t prompting us to abandon our view that central banks in... 10th March 2023 · 7 mins read
FX Markets Update Struggling rand may face more near-term pain The South African rand has weakened sharply against the US dollar so far this year, markedly underperforming other emerging market (EM) currencies. We expect domestic and global headwinds to drive a... 9th March 2023 · 4 mins read
Global Markets Update We think the struggles for equities in India will resume We think MSCI’s India Index will fall over the next couple of quarters in local-currency terms, amid subdued domestic economic activity and a general deterioration in investors’ appetite for “risky”... 9th March 2023 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Poland: rates on hold, but scope for cuts this year The National Bank of Poland (NBP) left its main policy rate on hold as expected today, at 6.75%, and we don’t think policymakers will rule out further rate hikes just yet (today’s statement gave... 8th March 2023 · 4 mins read
Emerging Markets Financial Risk Monitor EM financial risks have eased but not evaporated Financial risks across the emerging world have eased since the start of the year but, with the Fed’s Jerome Powell all but confirming a higher peak for US rates, there is still scope for EMs with weak... 8th March 2023 · 6 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EM slowdowns and NPLs: lessons from the past Non-performing loan (NPL) ratios have risen by as much as 4-5%-pts during non-banking crisis downturns in EMs in the past. This time around, there are reasons to think that the increase will be... 6th March 2023 · 5 mins read
Asia Economics Weekly Q4 may mark the trough, only weak recovery ahead There are tentative signs in recent data that the slump in Asian goods exports may be nearing an end and that, after a dreadful performance at the end of 2022, GDP in much of the region may have... 3rd March 2023 · 6 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Focus Assessing the inflation threat from EM labour markets Labour markets look very tight in Central Europe and a handful of other EMs (particularly in Latin America), and we think that wage growth is unlikely to fall far enough in these countries to bring... 2nd March 2023 · 19 mins read
FX Markets Update The Colombian peso looks poised for a rebound As political risks appear to be largely discounted by investors, we expect the Colombian peso to outperform other major EM currencies over the next couple of years. In view of the wider interest we... 2nd March 2023 · 4 mins read
FX Markets Update We doubt the shekel will continue to underperform The Israeli shekel has been amongst the worst performing currencies over the past month amid a rise in risk premia in Israel. We think it may remain under pressure against the US dollar over the... 1st March 2023 · 3 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update PMIs: industrial downturn bottoming out The manufacturing PMIs for February remained very weak in most EMs, but they did at least provide signs that industry across much of the emerging world has fared better so far this year than it did in... 1st March 2023 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Manufacturing PMIs (Feb.) The manufacturing PMIs for February suggest that industrial sectors in Central and Eastern Europe are continuing to struggle, but there are tentative signs that the region may now be past the worst of... 1st March 2023 · 2 mins read