Emerging Europe Data Response Russia Activity Data (Feb.) The improvement in the Russian industrial production and retail sales data for February provide further evidence that economic activity recovered at the start of this year. We think that GDP is likely... 29th March 2023 · 2 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack EMs weather the global banking storm Spill-overs to EMs from the turmoil in the global banking system have been limited. There don’t appear to be signs of strain in EM banks themselves, outflows of capital have been small and, in general... 29th March 2023 · 9 mins read
Event EM Drop-In: Are EMs also at risk from bank turmoil? 1680789600 Recent turmoil in the banking sector may have been a US and European story, but there are potentially important angles for Emerging Market investors.
Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack Is the door closing for fiscal loosening in the Gulf? One of the main channels through which the Gulf countries are exposed to worries about the health of the global banking system in through energy markets, with the price of Brent crude falling by 13%... 24th March 2023 · 11 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly Central banks focus on inflation and currency risks Nigeria’s central bank shrugged off the recent banking sector turmoil and kept its eye firmly focussed on tackling inflation as it hiked interest rates this week and, on balance, we think that... 24th March 2023 · 6 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Russia-China ties in full swing, Ukraine’s IMF deal Russia-China relations were on full show this week as China's President Xi visited Moscow and the two counties announced a raft of measures to increase ties over the coming years. China has helped... 24th March 2023 · 8 mins read
India Economics Weekly Long-term manufacturing hopes brewing The overarching message from our latest India Economic Outlook published this week is that while prospects for the economy look a little uninspiring over the near term, there are reasons to be... 24th March 2023 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Global bank turmoil another headwind to Em Europe The turmoil in the global banking sector has not spread to Emerging Europe, but the focus is back on the health of the region’s banks given the not-so-distant memory of the 2008/09 banking crises that... 23rd March 2023 · 11 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Central banks under the spotlight Next week’s MPC meeting in Egypt, coming at a time of soaring inflation and growing concerns over the commitment to policy reforms, will prove critical to restoring investors’ faith. Policymakers will... 23rd March 2023 · 6 mins read
Latin America Rapid Response Mexico Bi-Weekly CPI (Mar 2023.) Mexico’s headline inflation rate dropped back by more than expected, to 7.1% y/y, in the first half of March but the further rise in services inflation will continue to concern policymakers at Banxico... 23rd March 2023 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Turkey Interest Rate Announcement (Mar.) 23rd March 2023 · 2 mins read
Global Markets Update We expect equities in EMs to continue to struggle Even if the banking sector turmoil doesn’t grow into a broader economic crisis, we still think equities in emerging markets will struggle over the next couple of quarters in local-currency terms. 22nd March 2023 · 4 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkey’s banks in better shape, but external risks still high Turkey’s banking sector has been one of the weak links in the EM world in recent years due to its very high external debt burden. The good news is that banks have paid down these external debts and... 22nd March 2023 · 4 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EM banks: revisiting credit risks Spillovers from the global banking crisis to EMs appear limited so far. Encouragingly, too, most EM banks appear to be well placed to weather a period of rising non-performing loans resulting from... 21st March 2023 · 4 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Emerging Markets Capital Flows Monitor EMs, in general, don’t appear to have suffered large capital outflows over the past 10 days or so amid the turmoil in the global banking sector. But some countries with large current account deficits... 20th March 2023 · 3 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update A closer look at EMs’ exposure to bank flows A key channel through which emerging markets could be affected by the strains in the global banking sector is if lending by foreign banks falls sharply. On this front, EMs’ vulnerabilities have eased... 16th March 2023 · 3 mins read