Africa Data Response South Africa Activity Data (Apr.) April’s activity data out of South Africa suggest that, after dodging a technical recession in Q1, the economy made a bright start to the second quarter. But external and domestic headwinds, including... 14th June 2023 · 3 mins read
Global Markets Update Rate cuts may not be a big boost for EM local-currency bonds We think an upcoming shift in emerging market monetary policy towards rate cuts will provide long-dated local-currency government bonds there with a bit of a tailwind. But gains may be limited in the... 13th June 2023 · 4 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Poland’s government spending spree looks unsustainable The Polish government’s ambitious plans to raise defence and social spending are unlikely to be achieved without pushing up the public debt-to-GDP ratio later this decade. Imminent risks to the... 13th June 2023 · 4 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Turkey Activity Data (Apr.) The latest industrial production and retail sales data for Turkey for April suggest that GDP growth is likely to have remained subdued this quarter following the Q1 slowdown. A shift towards economic... 13th June 2023 · 2 mins read
Capital Daily We think that most EM currencies will fall back by year-end Emerging Market (EM) currencies have generally appreciated against the US dollar since the start of this month, and indeed since last October. However, we think that nearly all “major” EM currencies... 12th June 2023 · 4 mins read
India Economic Outlook Rate cuts will soon come onto the agenda The RBI’s tightening cycle has come to an end and, as the economy comes off the boil and inflation settles at comfortable rates, we think interest rates cuts will materialise in early 2024. Over the... 12th June 2023 · 20 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Saudi may struggle to sustain loose fiscal stance Saudi Arabia’s fiscal position has deteriorated over the past few quarters on the back of lower oil prices and production, and officials are increasingly doing all they can to sustain the current... 12th June 2023 · 3 mins read
India Data Response Consumer Prices (May) & Industrial Production (Apr.) Headline consumer price inflation fell to a 25-month low in May and is likely to remain within the RBI’s 2-6% target range for the foreseeable future. That means the tightening cycle won’t need... 12th June 2023 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Russia Consumer Prices (May) Russian inflation picked up slightly to 2.5% y/y in May and we think it will rise above the central bank’s 4% target in the coming months. Against a backdrop of large upside inflation risks and the... 9th June 2023 · 2 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Colombian asset rally, encouraging inflation news Hopes that the latest political drama in Colombia will cause President Gustavo Petro's reform agenda to stall have sparked a rally in the country’s financial markets this week. But with the current... 9th June 2023 · 5 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly SA agriculture slump, rand recovers South Africa’s Q1 GDP figures released this week revealed a big drag from the agricultural sector. Some of the factors that weighed on output (namely the weather) are likely to prove temporary but... 9th June 2023 · 5 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Turkey’s shift to orthodoxy, CEE rate cuts on the horizon Optimism about a shift towards orthodox economic policymaking was at the heart of developments in Turkey this week amid the appointments of a new cabinet and central bank governor and a sharp fall in... 9th June 2023 · 5 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Emerging Markets Capital Flows Monitor (Jun. 2023) Inflows into EM financial markets have held up well over the past few weeks, with particularly strong inflows into local equities. That said, if we are right that a renewed period of global risk... 9th June 2023 · 2 mins read
India Economics Weekly RBI stands pat, MSP hikes, India-US defence ties The RBI didn’t throw up any surprises this week when it kept the repo rate on hold at 6.50% and maintained a hawkish tone. But recent developments related to minimum support prices and monsoon rains... 9th June 2023 · 5 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Lessons from the “early hikers”: inflation remains sticky A handful of EM central banks were quick out of the blocks to tighten monetary policy in 2021 and one of the key lessons of the past year or so is that underlying inflation pressure is still proving... 8th June 2023 · 5 mins read
