Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack Tourism’s long road to recovery The hit to tourism in the region from the COVID-19 pandemic finally appears to be over. Receipts and arrivals are now back to, or even above, seasonal norms in almost all countries. This will be... 27th June 2023 · 10 mins read
Global Markets Outlook We expect near-term pain for equities, but medium-term gain We continue to expect risky assets to struggle over the second half of this year, as major developed market (DM) economies slip into recessions. Meanwhile, we think DM sovereign bonds will rally; that... 26th June 2023 · 15 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update India headlining EM rise up the global rankings EMs will account for over half of global GDP within the next decade and almost 60% by 2050. India will become the world’s third-largest economy before 2030. More generally, EMs with rapid population... 26th June 2023 · 4 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russia’s rebellion: bigger war, lower macro stability? The armed uprising by Yevgeny Prigozhin’s Wagner mercenary group against the Russian military over the weekend has dealt a heavy blow to President Putin and exposed cracks in the regime. There are a... 26th June 2023 · 4 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly BRL on a tear, monetary policy divergence The strong performance of the Brazilian real appears to have been driven by a rise in the price of some of Brazil's key export commodities. But we expect these prices to fall back over the remainder... 23rd June 2023 · 7 mins read
India Economics Weekly Strengthening of India-US ties to boost manufacturing The sweeping agreements on trade and defence announced during Narendra Modi’s state visit to the US this week underline that India’s government and firms increasingly see their interests as favouring... 23rd June 2023 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Central bank meetings, Intel investments, Q3 Outlook The central bank meetings in Hungary, Czechia and Turkey that took place this week all produced different outcomes, and policymakers’ communications suggest that interest rates in these countries will... 23rd June 2023 · 6 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly Zambia debt deal, austerity in Kenya, SARB to hold? This week saw Zambia edge closer to getting a debt restructuring over the line, but an agreement with official creditors suggested that there remain sticking points when it comes to negotiations with... 23rd June 2023 · 5 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Central Bank of Egypt stands pat, for now The Central Bank of Egypt (CBE) decided to leave interest rates unchanged at 18.25% at Thursday evening’s MPC meeting, but with the lingering threat of another fall in the pound and the slightly more... 23rd June 2023 · 2 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Takeaways from Egypt FM briefing; our latest forecasts The key takeaways from a recent briefing with Egypt’s Finance Minister Mohammed Maait are that the government is committed to keeping fiscal policy tight and bringing the government debt-to-GDP ratio... 22nd June 2023 · 6 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update CBRT underwhelms with hike, but policy shift on track The 650bp interest rate hike by Turkey’s central bank today (to 15.0%) will underwhelm investors that wanted a faster and more aggressive monetary tightening. The currency has come under a bit of... 22nd June 2023 · 3 mins read
Poland Activity Data (May) May’s industrial production and retail sales data out of Poland were weaker than expected and are consistent with our forecast that GDP growth remained negative in year-on-year terms in Q2. Over 2023... 22nd June 2023 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Economic Outlook Turning a corner, but a difficult road ahead Downturns in activity are bottoming out in Emerging Europe, current account deficits are narrowing and disinflation has taken hold across the region. But the road ahead still looks challenging. We... 21st June 2023 · 3 mins read
