Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Turkey’s election race, CNB hawks, Hungary’s reforms Opinion polls are painting a clearer picture of Turkey's election on 14th May, with an opposition victory looking more likely. This will offer a route to orthodox policymaking, but an Erdogan victory... 5th May 2023 · 10 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EM manufacturing lacking momentum The manufacturing PMIs for April suggest that industrial activity softened in most EMs last month and that external demand generally remained weak. The one crumb of comfort is that price pressures... 4th May 2023 · 2 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update How feasible is a BRICS currency? The idea of a new BRICS currency to settle trade or hold in reserves instead of the dollar has been doing the rounds recently. This could be modelled on the IMF’s Special Drawing Rights. But getting... 4th May 2023 · 6 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Oil prices, Tunisia-IMF, Egypt default concerns The fall in oil prices this week has taken them to a level at which Saudi Arabia will be running a budget deficit and may have closed the door on the prospect of looser fiscal policy in the Gulf. It... 4th May 2023 · 8 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Russia Activity Data (Mar.) Industrial production and retail sales continued to recover strongly in Russia in March and suggest that GDP growth may have accelerated in Q1. The economy appears to be receiving a boost from the... 3rd May 2023 · 3 mins read
EM Markets Chart Pack We still forecast decent gains for China’s equities this year We think the economic recovery in China will support further gains in the country’s equity market. 3rd May 2023 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update CNB: hawks rear their heads, but Q3 rate cut in play The Czech central bank (CNB) left its main policy rate on hold at 7.00% as expected today, but it looks like policymakers set out to strengthen their hawkish rhetoric and downplay expectations of an... 3rd May 2023 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkey election preview: the current state of play Parliamentary and presidential elections on 14th May will make or break macroeconomic stability in Turkey. As things stand it looks more likely that opposition candidate Kilicdaroglu will become the... 3rd May 2023 · 6 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Rapid Response PMIs (Apr. 2023) April’s PMIs for the region showed that activity in private non-hydrocarbon sectors in the Gulf states started Q2 on a strong footing. What’s more, there were tentative signs that price pressures may... 3rd May 2023 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Turkey Consumer Prices (Apr.) Inflation in Turkey fell a bit more than expected in April, to 43.7% y/y, driven largely by a sharp decline in energy inflation, but m/m price growth remained strong and the disinflation process will... 3rd May 2023 · 3 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Egypt’s BoP improves, but pound pressure to persist Egypt’s balance of payments (BoP) position strengthened markedly late last year, but policymakers’ reluctance to live up to their reform promises appears to be causing capital inflows to slow to a... 2nd May 2023 · 3 mins read
China Economics Weekly Next in the spotlight: local government debt Investors sometimes talk about a ball of speculative money that rolls around China’s asset markets. There’s a ball of worry too, and it is rolling back into local government debt. The immediate... 28th April 2023 · 8 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly CEE rate cuts coming into view, FX rally may not last Central banks across Central and Eastern Europe provided firmer signs this week that, with inflation now declining, monetary loosening may soon be on the cards. But there are still clearly big... 28th April 2023 · 10 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Russia Interest Rate Announcement (Apr.) 28th April 2023 · 2 mins read
India Economics Weekly RBI will continue providing support to rupee The rupee has held up well so far this year and, while we think renewed weakening is likely over the coming months as the US dollar rebounds, the recent improvement in the external position, ample FX... 28th April 2023 · 4 mins read