Middle East & North Africa Rapid Response

Egypt Consumer Prices (Aug. 2024)

Egypt’s headline inflation strengthened from 25.7% y/y in July to 26.2% y/y in August, breaking a five month streak of decelerating inflation, after electricity and fuel price hikes. We expect...

10th September 2024 · 2 mins read

China Economics Update

New US export controls will be harder to overcome

The new US controls on exports of semiconductor manufacturing equipment will slow China’s ability to expand its advanced chip-making capacity. While the immediate economic impact will be small, it...

9th September 2024 · 6 mins read

China Rapid Response

China Consumer & Producer Prices (Aug. 2024)

Despite a weather-related surge in vegetable prices, a fall in energy prices and core inflation meant CPI only rose a touch. Meanwhile, producer price deflation deepened on the back of worsening...

9th September 2024 · 2 mins read

Emerging Europe Rapid Response

Poland Interest Rate Announcement (Sep.)

The decision by the National Bank of Poland to leave its policy rate on hold today, at 5.75%, was widely expected by analysts, and the incoming data are supporting our view that there won’t be scope...

4th September 2024 · 2 mins read

Emerging Markets Economics Update

EM manufacturing set for a weaker Q3

After a large fall in July, the EM manufacturing PMI only edged up slightly last month, suggesting that the sector fared worse in Q3 than in the first half of the year. The PMIs did at least provide...

3rd September 2024 · 2 mins read

Latin America Rapid Response

Brazil GDP (Q2 2024)

The much stronger-than-expected Brazilian GDP figure for Q2, of 1.4% q/q, means that the economy now appears to be on course to expand by 3% over the year as a whole. The flip side is that it will...

3rd September 2024 · 2 mins read

Middle East & North Africa Economics Update

Egypt: lessons from history point to Q1 rate cut

Attention in Egypt is turning to the timing of the first interest rate cut. The lessons from the start of the last easing cycle in 2018 suggest that this is likely to begin in Q1, which is a little...

3rd September 2024 · 6 mins read

Middle East & North Africa Rapid Response

PMIs (Aug. 2024)

August’s batch of PMIs showed a slightly more positive outturn for the Gulf’s private non-oil sectors, but there was better news from Egypt where its PMI rose back above the 50-mark for the first time...

3rd September 2024 · 2 mins read

Emerging Europe Rapid Response

Turkey GDP (Q2 2024)

The Turkish GDP figures for Q2, which showed a better-than-expected 0.1% q/q expansion in output, suggest that the rebalancing process still has some way to go. The data argue in favour of the central...

2nd September 2024 · 2 mins read

China Rapid Response

China PMIs (Aug. 2024)

The PMIs for August suggest that economic momentum held broadly steady last month, with modest improvements in manufacturing helping to offset a further slowdown in construction activity. But with...

2nd September 2024 · 3 mins read

China Economics Weekly

Tariff barriers keep climbing, USD still dominates trade

Canada's new tariffs on Chinese exports won't have much of an impact on China's economy, but they are symptomatic of a broader wave of protectionist measures that have been ramping up in recent years...

30th August 2024 · 5 mins read

Africa Economics Weekly

China-Africa lending, Zambia power cuts to bite

Data out this week showed that Chinese lending to Africa increased for the first time since 2016. But worries about convoluted debt restructuring processes mean that Chinese outbound lending to the...

30th August 2024 · 6 mins read

China Chart Pack

China Chart Pack (Aug. 24)

Falling house prices and a soft labour market will continue to hold back consumer spending over the coming months. And with the PBOC concerned about a bond bubble, large-scale monetary easing appears...

30th August 2024 · 1 min read

India Rapid Response

Growth slowing, but economy still strong

GDP figures for Q2 show a sharper-than-expected slowdown in India’s economy. Looking ahead, we expect economic activity to moderate a bit further over the coming quarters. But the big picture is that...

30th August 2024 · 2 mins read

Emerging Europe Economics Weekly

Poland’s generous budget, Israel-Hezbollah

The Polish government’s draft budget for 2025 announced this week suggests that fiscal policy will be more expansionary than we had previously expected next year. While that poses an upside risk to...

30th August 2024 · 8 mins read