Capital Daily The rand ain’t what it used to be The sharp drop in the South African rand this week is in large part driven by one-off factors, including the news that the country’s government may have supplied arms to Russia and thereby put itself... 12th May 2023 · 8 mins read
China Economics Weekly Making sense of the reopening recovery After a string of underwhelming but inconclusive data releases, we should have a better sense of the strength of China’s post-zero-COVID rebound next week with the release of the April activity and... 12th May 2023 · 6 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Czech fiscal tightening, last thoughts before Turkey’s vote The Czech government’s long-awaited fiscal consolidation package unveiled this week will include fiscal tightening to the tune of 1.5% of GDP over 2024/25 and will come at the cost of weaker growth... 12th May 2023 · 11 mins read
DM Valuations Monitor Global Markets Valuations Monitor (May 2023) This revamped Global Markets Valuations Monitor combines and replaces our previous DM Valuations Monitor and EM Valuations Monitor publications. 12th May 2023 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Brazil IPCA (Apr.) & Mexico Ind. Production (Mar.) The sharp fall in Brazilian inflation, to 4.2% y/y last month, was encouragingly broad based among the sub-categories of the CPI basket. But we think the central bank will want to see more evidence... 12th May 2023 · 2 mins read
Frontier Markets Wrap Debt risks: the not so bad, the bad and the ugly Sovereign debt risks are back in focus as some frontiers appear to be drifting closer to default. We remain most concerned about default risks in Tunisia and Pakistan, particularly in light of this... 12th May 2023 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Turkey Activity Data (Mar.) Industrial production and retail sales bounced back strongly in March, supporting our view that the impact of the earthquakes was short-lived. GDP growth is likely to have remained positive in Q1. But... 12th May 2023 · 3 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly All eyes on the CBE, Saudi budget figures The unveiling of Egypt’s austere FY2023/24 Budget and the reinvigorated privatisation drive will help to ease some concern among investors of reform progress. But the critical thing to watch will be... 11th May 2023 · 7 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Ecuador: political turmoil brings default risks back The looming impeachment trial of Ecuador’s president Guillermo Lasso marks a further intensification of the country’s political crisis and suggests that the recent experiment with market-friendly... 10th May 2023 · 6 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update How close is the EM easing cycle? Most EM central banks have drawn their monetary tightening cycles to a close now and, if history is any guide, it looks like the conditions will be in place for an easing cycle to start from around... 10th May 2023 · 4 mins read
Latin America Data Response Brazil Industrial Production (Mar.) The surprisingly strong 1.1% m/m increase in Brazilian industrial production in March suggests that the economy fared a bit better than we’d expected in Q1. The risks to our GDP growth forecast for... 10th May 2023 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkey’s election: Q&A on an opposition victory There’s a lot of optimism that the opposition will emerge victorious in Turkey’s elections, which would pave the way for a return to orthodox economic policy. Were this to happen, it would set the... 10th May 2023 · 7 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Rapid Response Egypt Consumer Prices (Apr. 2023) Egypt’s inflation rate slowed from a near-five-year high of 32.7% y/y in March to 30.6% y/y in April, but it remains well above the Central Bank of Egypt’s (CBE’s) inflation target range and with the... 10th May 2023 · 2 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Saudi economy contracts in Q1, set for a weak 2023 Flash GDP figures showed that Saudi Arabia’s economy contracted in Q1 on the back of OPEC+-agreed oil output cuts, but growth in the non-oil economy remained strong. The “voluntary” oil production... 9th May 2023 · 3 mins read