Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Policy credibility in Turkey, bleak CEE GDP data The latest developments in Turkey – including the expected appointment of former finance minister Mehmet Simsek to the cabinet – provide encouraging signs that President Erdogan will moderate his... 2nd June 2023 · 9 mins read
India Economics Weekly Resilient economy does not make case for tightening The strength of the recent activity data means we are revising up our 2023 GDP growth forecast to 6.3%, from 6.0%. But given that inflation has come down a long way from its peak last year and is now... 2nd June 2023 · 4 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Brazil: labour market strength likely to worry Copom The latest data suggest that Brazil’s labour market isn’t softening as quickly as we and many others (not least the central bank) had anticipated. That’s keeping wage growth high and, while that may... 1st June 2023 · 3 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EM manufacturing: a better Q2 but weakness ahead The manufacturing PMIs for May suggest that EM industry has, in aggregate, strengthened in Q2. Nonetheless, with the surveys pointing to further weakness in key DM trading partners, EM industry is... 1st June 2023 · 3 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly OPEC+ meeting, Saudi mortgages and 2022 census This weekend’s OPEC+ meeting will be closely watched. We expect that the group will stand pat on Sunday, but OPEC+ has a history of springing surprises. Meanwhile, the Kingdom’s 2022 Census revealed... 1st June 2023 · 8 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkey: just how likely is a sovereign debt default? The re-election of President Erdogan has raised concerns about a possible sovereign default. We think this risk looks low for now, but it would become a bigger threat in the coming years if the... 1st June 2023 · 3 mins read
Latin America Data Response Brazil GDP (Q1 2023) The breakdown of Brazil’s Q1 GDP figures suggests that the economy is not as strong as the staggering 1.9% q/q rise in output would suggest. Even so, the sharp rise in output has prompted us to revise... 1st June 2023 · 3 mins read
RBI Watch RBI is done tightening; cuts to come onto agenda soon We think the MPC will keep policy unchanged at the conclusion of its meeting on Thursday 8th June. And while the door will be kept ajar for a resumption in the hiking cycle over the coming months, we... 1st June 2023 · 6 mins read
Africa Data Response South Africa Manufacturing PMI (May) The fall in the South African manufacturing PMI in May leaves it at a level consistent with modest falls in output in the sector. And the collapse in the future conditions component suggests that... 1st June 2023 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Manufacturing PMIs (May) The manufacturing PMIs for May across Emerging Europe were either flat, or edged up slightly, providing further evidence that the worst of the regional downturn is probably now behind us. That said... 1st June 2023 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Russia Activity Data (Apr.) The continued growth of Russian industrial production and retail sales in April suggests that the strength of activity seen in Q1 continued at the start of Q2. This momentum is likely to be sustained... 31st May 2023 · 2 mins read
Emerging Markets Financial Risk Monitor Pockets of vulnerability in major EMs Financial risks across the major EMs look relatively well contained for the time being but there are some areas of weakness. Most immediately, following President Erdogan’s election victory the... 31st May 2023 · 5 mins read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Current account positions improve, but risks remain There has been further evidence over the past month that resilient export growth, weak domestic demand and lower energy prices have helped to improve current account positions across Central and... 31st May 2023 · 15 mins read
India Economics Focus India and the physical risks from climate change India’s economy is one of the most vulnerable in the world to the physical effects of climate change. Climate change alone won’t stop relatively rapid rates of growth over the coming decades. But it... 31st May 2023 · 12 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Turkey GDP (Q1 2023) Turkey’s economy shrugged off the impact of the earthquakes in February and grew by 0.3% q/q (4.0% y/y) in Q1. GDP growth is likely to remain soft in q/q terms this year, but a continuation of... 31st May 2023 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Turkey Presidential Election Second Round (May) 29th May 2023 · 3 mins read