Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Turkey’s shift to orthodoxy, CEE rate cuts on the horizon Optimism about a shift towards orthodox economic policymaking was at the heart of developments in Turkey this week amid the appointments of a new cabinet and central bank governor and a sharp fall in... 9th June 2023 · 5 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Emerging Markets Capital Flows Monitor (Jun. 2023) Inflows into EM financial markets have held up well over the past few weeks, with particularly strong inflows into local equities. That said, if we are right that a renewed period of global risk... 9th June 2023 · 2 mins read
India Economics Weekly RBI stands pat, MSP hikes, India-US defence ties The RBI didn’t throw up any surprises this week when it kept the repo rate on hold at 6.50% and maintained a hawkish tone. But recent developments related to minimum support prices and monsoon rains... 9th June 2023 · 5 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Lessons from the “early hikers”: inflation remains sticky A handful of EM central banks were quick out of the blocks to tighten monetary policy in 2021 and one of the key lessons of the past year or so is that underlying inflation pressure is still proving... 8th June 2023 · 5 mins read
Latin America Economic Outlook Rate cuts coming, but easing will be gradual The region’s strong start to the year is unlikely to be sustained and we expect growth across Latin America to come in weaker than most expect this year and next. Inflation will continue to fall, but... 8th June 2023 · 21 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Saudi sporting fever, OPEC+ fallout, Kuwait elections Saudi Arabia has dominated the sports headlines this week with big-money moves for global football stars a sign that the Kingdom is recycling large current account surplus. But the move does raise... 8th June 2023 · 7 mins read
Latin America Rapid Response Mexico Consumer Prices (May) Headline inflation in Mexico dropped to a 21-month low of 5.8% y/y in May and will continue to decline over the coming months. That said, the strong labour market and rapid wage growth mean that... 8th June 2023 · 2 mins read
India Economics Update Next move in policy rates likely to be down The RBI’s decision to keep the repo rate on hold (at 6.50%) today comes as no surprise given the recent sharp drop in inflation. The central bank continues to strike a hawkish tone and the door... 8th June 2023 · 3 mins read
Latin America Rapid Response Brazil IPCA (May 2023) The fall in Brazilian inflation to 3.9% y/y in May, alongside the government’s new fiscal framework, has strengthened the arguments in favour of near-term monetary easing. But with inflation set to... 7th June 2023 · 2 mins read
South Africa GDP (Q1) The 0.4% q/q rise in South Africa’s GDP in Q1 means that the economy once again skirted a technical recession, but the outlook remains bleak. Severe power cuts, tight fiscal and monetary policy and a... 6th June 2023 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkey’s U-turn: action will speak louder than words Optimism about a shift towards more orthodox economic policymaking in Turkey has taken hold following the appointment of Mehmet Simsek to the cabinet this weekend. Recent developments look encouraging... 5th June 2023 · 4 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Saudi economy to contract on back of oil output cuts Saudi Arabia pushed through another oil production cut at the OPEC+ meeting, but, it will come at the cost of slower economic growth and we now think the economy will contract by 0.5% this year. The... 5th June 2023 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Turkey Consumer Prices (May) The fall in Turkish inflation to 39.6% y/y in May was largely driven by a sharp fall in energy prices, while core inflation increased. Bringing inflation down sustainably will require a major policy... 5th June 2023 · 2 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Andes adjusting, tight job markets in Brazil & Mexico Data out this week suggest that Colombia’s economy has started to undergo an adjustment process, which is set to continue over the course of this year and next and underpins our forecast that growth... 2nd June 2023 · 8 mins read