Asset Allocation Update The relative outlook for EM & US bonds Although we expect emerging market (EM) policy rates to fall vis-a-vis the US this year, we don’t expect EM local-currency sovereign bonds to outperform US Treasuries until global growth picks up over... 5th July 2023 · 3 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EM current account risks have declined sharply A significant number of EMs that were running large current account deficits last year – including much of Central and Eastern Europe (CEE), Peru and Chile – have seen dramatic improvements in their... 5th July 2023 · 3 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Saudi non-oil sector softening blow from oil output cuts Activity in Saudi Arabia’s non-oil sector has continued to hold up well, but that is merely cushioning the blow to the economy from oil output cuts. 5th July 2023 · 2 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Rapid Response PMIs (Jun. 2023) June’s batch of PMIs for the region improved almost entirely across the board and the strength in the Gulf states marked a stark contrast to the weakness among other emerging market regions. Elsewhere... 5th July 2023 · 3 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Broad-based weakness in EM industry The widespread falls in the EM manufacturing PMIs for June suggest that industry continued to struggle in Q2 and we think further weakness lies in store. Taken together with the easing price pressures... 3rd July 2023 · 2 mins read
South Africa Manufacturing PMI (Jun.) South Africa’s manufacturing PMI fell in June to its lowest level since mid-2021 and remains consistent with declines in output in the sector over the coming months. The survey also shows that price... 3rd July 2023 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Fallout from Russia's rebellion, lira's sharp depreciation The aborted uprising by Yevgeny Prigozhin against Russia's military last weekend has prompted a forceful response by President Putin as he seeks to reassert his authority. There's much less certainty... 30th June 2023 · 10 mins read
China Chart Pack China Chart Pack (Jun. 2023) This new Chart Pack has been designed to replace our Chart Book in response to client feedback to make our insights more accessible, and with more options to incorporate them into your workflow. Use... 30th June 2023 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Weekly Kenya restarts tightening, case for a hold in SA builds Kenya’s central bank hiked interest rates by 100bp, to 10.50%, at an unscheduled meeting this week. The move was pinned on an increase in inflation in May, but more than anything it seems to be a... 30th June 2023 · 6 mins read
India Economics Weekly Food price concerns come to the fore Concerns over a pick-up in food inflation have been growing in recent days given the spike in vegetable prices. The inflation picture could change very quickly given how volatile prices can be, but we... 30th June 2023 · 4 mins read
Emerging Markets Economic Outlook Central banks shifting into easing mode EM growth will be weaker than most expect over the coming quarters. And with inflation falling back at the same time, the nascent EM monetary easing cycle will broaden out. Strong wage pressures in... 29th June 2023 · 30 mins read
Economic Sentiment Indicators (June) The European Commission’s Economic Sentiment Indicators (ESIs) for Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) generally fell in June, and our regional-weighted headline measure points to lacklustre GDP growth... 29th June 2023 · 2 mins read