Africa Chart Pack Africa Chart Pack (Aug. 2023) Our Africa Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. Sub-Saharan Africa is set to record its weakest growth (outside the pandemic) since 2016 this year... 31st August 2023 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Poland Consumer Prices (Aug. Flash Est.) The fact that Polish inflation remained in double-digits in August, at 10.1% y/y, means that an interest rate cut at the central bank’s meeting next week now seems very unlikely. That said, we think... 31st August 2023 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Turkey GDP (Q2 2023) The bumper Turkish Q2 GDP growth figure of 3.5% q/q, taken together with more timely figures for Q3 confirms that demand continues to run hot, despite the recent policy U-turn. This will keep... 31st August 2023 · 2 mins read
China Rapid Response PMIs (Aug.) The PMI surveys suggest economic momentum stabilised in August after months of slowdown. Downward pressure on manufacturing activity appears to have dissipated, while construction activity accelerated... 31st August 2023 · 4 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Russia Activity Data (Jul.) The latest activity data for Russia for July suggest that retail sales maintained solid momentum while industry has come off the boil in recent months. We think that the economy as a whole will record... 30th August 2023 · 2 mins read
Latin America Economics Focus Dollarisation not a silver bullet for Argentina History suggests that dollarisation, which is at the heart of Argentine presidential candidate Javier Milei’s policy platform, is a surefire way to get inflation under control. But whether this... 30th August 2023 · 12 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Morocco’s public finances stronger than they seem On the face of it, Morrocco’s public finances are starting to look alarming. The budget deficit has widened and the public debt-to-GDP ratio has jumped by over 10%-pts in less than three years. But a... 30th August 2023 · 4 mins read
Asia Chart Pack Emerging Asia Chart Pack (Aug. 2023) Our Emerging Asia Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. GDP growth looks set to remain weak over the coming quarters, as tight monetary policy at home and... 30th August 2023 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Economic Sentiment Indicators (Aug.) The European Commission's Economic Sentiment Indicators for Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) generally rose in August and suggest that the region may be on the road to recovery. What’s more, firms’... 30th August 2023 · 2 mins read
Asset Allocation Update We think EMEA equities will continue to be a mixed bag Equities in Europe, the Middle East and Africa (EMEA) have returned little in US$ terms so far this year. While they may fare better next year, we doubt they’ll outperform the wider emerging equity... 29th August 2023 · 6 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Hungary Interest Rate Announcement (Aug.) The Hungarian central bank (MNB) announced another 100bp cut to its quick deposit rate (the key policy rate at the moment) today, to 14.00%, and we think that this rate will be cut by another 100bp... 29th August 2023 · 2 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Wage growth still an inflation threat in Lat Am & CEE Despite the slowdown in EM GDP growth in Q2, there’s little sign that labour markets are softening. Wage growth remains alarmingly strong across much of Latin America and Central Europe (CEE). That... 29th August 2023 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Re-thinking Turkey’s policy shift, Prigozhin’s death The 750bp rate interest hike by Turkey's central bank this week was a major surprise and there are still reasons to be sceptical about the policy U-turn that's underway. At this point, however, we're... 25th August 2023 · 8 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Panama Canal, Brazil’s fiscal framework, Ecuador’s vote Panama's economy will bear the brunt of the disruption at the Panama Canal caused by a severe drought. But given the Canal's importance to global trade, there are also likely to be global implications... 25th August 2023 · 6 mins read
India Economics Weekly Moon landing, BRICS expanding, GDP withstanding Headlines in India this week have been dominated by the successful Chandrayaan-3 mission to the south pole of the moon. Second to that was the BRICS summit, which concluded with an announcement that... 25th August 2023 · 6 mins read
Latin America Rapid Response Brazil IPCA-15 (August 2023) The jump in Brazilian inflation to a higher-than-expected 4.2% y/y in the middle of the month (and the prospect of further increases over the rest of Q3) are likely to dash hopes that the central bank... 25th August 2023 · 2 mins read
