Emerging Europe Economics Focus Sanctions, war and Russia's economy: what next? Russia’s economy has adapted to Western sanctions better than had been expected so far, but maintaining macroeconomic stability is now becoming more challenging and depends in large part on the... 13th July 2023 · 26 mins read
Event Drop-In: El Niño – Gauging the risks to economies and markets 1689775200 The World Meteorological Organisation has announced a 90% probability of an El Niño event in the second half of the year, threatening more extreme climate events.
Russia Consumer Prices (Jun.) The rise in Russian inflation to 3.3% y/y last month means the central bank will almost certainly follow through on its recent hawkish rhetoric by hiking interest rates when it meets next month. A... 12th July 2023 · 2 mins read
India Rapid Response Consumer Prices (Jun.) Headline consumer price inflation came in at 4.8% y/y in June, comfortably within the RBI’s 2-6% tolerance range. But that’s already old news given the surge in vegetable prices so far in July and the... 12th July 2023 · 2 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack Middle East and North Africa Chart Pack (July 2023) This new Chart Pack has been designed to replace our Chart Book in response to client feedback to make our insights more accessible, and with more options to incorporate them into your workflow. Use... 12th July 2023 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update El Niño risks concentrated in EMs The likelihood of an El Niño event in the second half of this year adds to upside risks to global inflation and downside risks to activity. For the advanced economies, higher prices of agricultural... 12th July 2023 · 5 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Emerging Markets Capital Flows Monitor (Jul. 2023) Inflows into EM financial markets saw a further pick-up in the past month and are now at their highest level since late last year, driven by inflows into Turkey and India. Inflows to Turkey could be... 11th July 2023 · 3 mins read
Latin America Rapid Response Brazil IPCA (June 2023) The sharp fall in Brazilian inflation to just 3.2% y/y last month makes it almost certain that the central bank will kick off its easing cycle at its next meeting on 2nd August. We have pencilled in a... 11th July 2023 · 2 mins read
India Economics Update The implications of a severe El Niño for India A severe El Niño event could be the harbinger of weak monsoon rains in India. This wouldn’t have as big an economic impact as it would have had a couple of decades ago. But it would harm employment... 10th July 2023 · 4 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Rapid Response Egypt Consumer Prices (Jun. 2023) Egypt’s inflation rate rose from 32.7% y/y in May to a record high of 35.7% y/y in June, putting it even further above the Central Bank of Egypt’s (CBE’s) inflation target range. This adds to our view... 10th July 2023 · 3 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly Gauging the possible El Niño impact on Africa The El Niño weather pattern is on its way and threatens to hit agricultural production across much of Africa over the coming months, curtailing GDP growth, pushing up inflation and dealing a fresh... 7th July 2023 · 5 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Ruble’s depreciation, Turkey’s adjustment in swing The depreciation of the Russian ruble gathered pace this week amid a continued squeeze on Russia's trade surplus and growing capital outflows. A weaker currency will support the fiscal position, but... 7th July 2023 · 8 mins read
Africa Economics Update Tanzania: near-term growth restrained, gas hopes bright Tanzania’s economic growth will remain sluggish by past standards over the next couple of years due to the effects of persistent drought and tight fiscal policy. But with policymaking shifting in a... 6th July 2023 · 7 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Saudi oil, UAE energy & mortgages, Morocco GDP The announcement by Saudi Arabia that it will roll over its voluntary 1mn bpd oil output cut through August has led us to downwardly revise our GDP growth forecast for this year. The UAE has been much... 6th July 2023 · 8 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update China’s fizzling recovery and the impact on other EMs The fading of China’s reopening rebound will weigh on recoveries in EMs like Thailand and Hong Kong whose tourism sectors depend heavily on Chinese visitors, but otherwise we think it presents... 6th July 2023 · 3 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Tunisia no closer to solving its sovereign debt problem Tunisia is struggling to get an IMF deal over the line and, unless President Saied’s government agrees in the near-future to allow the dinar to fall and to implement a large fiscal consolidation, the... 6th July 2023 · 4 mins read