Africa Data Response

South Africa Consumer Prices (Aug' 24.)

The dip in South Africa’s headline inflation rate, to 4.4% y/y, in August and the further decline in core inflation all but seals the deal on the SARB start an easing cycle tomorrow. We have pencilled...

18th September 2024 · 2 mins read

Middle East & North Africa Economics Update

How will the Fed loosening cycle impact the Gulf?

The US Federal Reserve looks certain to start its loosening cycle this evening and, by virtue of their dollar pegs and open capital accounts, central banks across the Gulf will follow suit. Lower...

18th September 2024 · 3 mins read

Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack

Emerging Markets Chart Pack (September 2024)

EM recoveries are beginning to slow and will continue to do so over the coming quarters. Within this there will be regional variation, with Asia the outperformer and Latin America the laggard...

17th September 2024 · 1 min read

Emerging Markets Economics Update

EMs: key client questions answered

We recently held a series of EM-focused client meetings in Switzerland and Germany which covered a wide range of topics, including the impact of global fracturing, AI and the green transition on...

16th September 2024 · 5 mins read

Africa Data Response

Nigeria Consumer Prices (August '24)

Nigeria’s headline inflation rate dipped to 32.2% y/y in August, confirming the disinflation trend is firmly on course as the pass through from previous sharp falls in the naira continues to fade...

16th September 2024 · 2 mins read

China Rapid Response

China Bank Lending & Broad Credit (Aug.)

Both broad credit and bank loan growth slowed in August, coming in below expectations. (See Chart 1.) While stronger government spending should give the economy a boost over the coming months, that...

13th September 2024 · 2 mins read

Emerging Europe Economics Weekly

CEE easing cycles still likely to be slow from here

While interest rate cuts by the ECB this week and the Fed next week, as well as the fall in oil prices, could set the stage for more monetary easing in Central and Eastern Europe (CEE), we still think...

13th September 2024 · 6 mins read

China Economics Weekly

Retirement age increase, import slowdown

The increase in China's retirement age announced today will provide a near-term boost to employment. But it won't do much to counteract long-run demographic headwinds. And while weak domestic demand...

13th September 2024 · 6 mins read

Emerging Europe Rapid Response

Russia Interest Rate Announcement (Sep.)

The decision by the Russian central bank to hike its policy rate today by 100bp, to 19.00%, suggests that policymakers are even more concerned about the inflation outlook than we’d previously thought...

13th September 2024 · 2 mins read

Asia Economics Weekly

Fed easing, SBP rate cut, BoK’s dovish minutes

Bank Indonesia tends to place a lot of weight on US Federal Reserve decisions because of its mandate to ensure currency stability. We think a cut by the Fed on Wednesday will give the green light for...

13th September 2024 · 8 mins read

Emerging Markets Economics Update

What the Fed’s easing cycle means for EMs

The Fed’s upcoming monetary easing cycle will probably provide less of a tailwind to EMs than is widely thought. While it’s likely to give some central banks (such as in the Gulf, Mexico and Indonesia...

12th September 2024 · 4 mins read

Emerging Europe Rapid Response

Russia Consumer Prices (Aug.)

Russia’s headline inflation rate held steady at 9.1% y/y in August which, while slightly stronger than expected, won’t tip the balance towards another interest rate hike at the central bank’s meeting...

11th September 2024 · 1 min read

Middle East & North Africa Economics Update

Saudi between a rock and a hard place on oil policy

Saudi Arabia has cut oil output aggressively in the past two years but this has failed to prevent a slide in the Kingdom’s oil revenues. Officials are facing a tough choice over what to do next and...

11th September 2024 · 7 mins read

Latin America Economics Update

Mexico’s constitutional reforms: Amlo’s parting shot?

The approval by Mexico's Senate to a sweeping judicial reform has removed the last big obstacle to outgoing President López Obrador’s controversial plan to overhaul the justice system. In light of...

11th September 2024 · 7 mins read

Middle East & North Africa Rapid Response

Egypt Consumer Prices (Aug. 2024)

Egypt’s headline inflation strengthened from 25.7% y/y in July to 26.2% y/y in August, breaking a five month streak of decelerating inflation, after electricity and fuel price hikes. We expect...

10th September 2024 · 2 mins read