Emerging Europe Economics Update BoI: another hawkish hold, rate cuts still some way off The Bank of Israel (BoI) left its policy rate on hold again today, at 4.75%, and while our baseline forecast is that the tightening cycle is now over, the BoI’s hawkish comments support our view that... 4th September 2023 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Turkey Consumer Prices (Aug.) The jump in Turkish inflation to a much stronger-than-expected 58.9% y/y last month, coming shortly after bumper Q2 GDP figures, means the central bank (CBRT) is likely to follow up last month’s 750bp... 4th September 2023 · 2 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EM industry strengthens, but export demand weak The manufacturing PMIs for August pointed to pick-ups in activity in some of the major EMs. But external demand remains soft, which continues to weigh heavily on some of the more export-oriented... 1st September 2023 · 2 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Argentina’s grim IMF review, Brazil’s budget deficit The acknowledgement by the IMF that Argentina's programme has gone 'off track' confirms that the Fund's patience is (belatedly) wearing thin. The next president will have to quickly make market... 1st September 2023 · 8 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Gas price volatility, Romania’s fiscal slippage The jump in wholesale European natural gas prices in the early part of this week doesn’t mean the energy crisis in the region is coming back to life. For economies in Central and Eastern Europe, it... 1st September 2023 · 7 mins read
Latin America Rapid Response Brazil GDP (Q2 2023) The much faster-than-expected Brazilian Q2 GDP growth figure of 0.9% q/q suggests that the economy is in stronger health than many – ourselves included – had thought. We think growth will be weaker... 1st September 2023 · 2 mins read
India Economics Weekly Food inflation threat is far from over We think vegetable price inflation will have remained elevated last month despite a moderation in prices over the past couple of weeks. What’s more, India recorded the driest August in more than a... 1st September 2023 · 3 mins read
Africa Rapid Response South Africa Manufacturing PMI (Aug.) South Africa’s manufacturing PMI strengthened in August, reversing the declines seen in recent months as loadshedding became less intense. Even so, the survey still points to extremely weak growth in... 1st September 2023 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Manufacturing PMIs (Aug.) The manufacturing PMIs for August suggest that industrial sectors in Poland, Czechia and Turkey remained in the doldrums last month, but Russia’s PMI rose further and the prices balances provide... 1st September 2023 · 2 mins read
India Rapid Response Manufacturing PMI (Aug.) India’s manufacturing PMI is again defying gravity, recording one of its highest readings in the past 13 years in August. It’s clear that the economy has been very resilient in recent months but we’d... 1st September 2023 · 2 mins read
China Economics Weekly A major step-up in support Stimulus efforts are finally gaining momentum. Yesterday, regulators announced measures to support households and shore up the property sector, including looser downpayment requirements and reductions... 1st September 2023 · 6 mins read
Event EM Drop-In: Is political risk rising? From military uprisings to election upsets 1694095200 Military coups are sweeping Francophone Africa, Argentina’s wildcard presidential candidate is suddenly an election favourite and Vladimir Putin’s war is eating away at Russian macro stability.
India Rapid Response GDP (Q2) The GDP data for Q2 (Q1 of FY23/24) confirm a resilient first half of the year for India’s economy in the face of the RBI’s policy tightening. More timely data point to a slight cooling in growth but... 31st August 2023 · 2 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Colombia: investment set to remain weak Fixed investment has been the weak spot in Colombia’s strong post-pandemic recovery and it is likely to remain subdued over the next couple of years due to a combination of the fragile political... 31st August 2023 · 4 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkey’s policy shift: promising start, but a lot more to do Turkey’s policy shift has ticked a lot of the right boxes so far and the central bank’s large rate hike this month will go a long way to rebuilding confidence among investors. But there are still... 31st August 2023 · 4 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly SAMA drawdown, Saudi real estate, Egypt industry plans The drop in the Saudi central bank’s foreign assets to a 14-year low in July caused some concern this week, but we suspect this reflects funds being recycled to the Public Investment Fund rather than... 31st August 2023 · 6 mins read
