India Economics Weekly How will the rice export ban affect the economy? The partial ban on rice exports announced this week will have a small impact on India's trade balance and, similarly, it is unlikely to reduce inflation much either. The bigger concern for... 21st July 2023 · 3 mins read
Poland Activity Data (June) June’s retail sales and industrial production data out of Poland suggest that the economy held up relatively well last month, but we doubt that this is the start of a strong rebound in activity. We... 21st July 2023 · 2 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Saudi-UAE relations, Saudi inflation, Egyptian LNG A recent report in the Wall Street Journal suggests that tensions between Saudi Arabia and the UAE have increased. This may raise the threat of the UAE leaving OPEC+, which would result in global oil... 20th July 2023 · 6 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Is a stronger peso harming Mexico’s economy? Mexico’s exports have fared well recently and the current account deficit remains small. But a closer look suggests that the strength of the peso is causing dynamics in the balance of payments to... 20th July 2023 · 4 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack Emerging Markets Chart Pack (July 2023) This new Chart Pack has been designed to replace our Chart Book in response to client feedback to make our insights more accessible, and with more options to incorporate them into your workflow. Use... 20th July 2023 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update South Africa Interest Rate Announcement (Jul.) The further fall in inflation in June, coupled with signs of economic weakness and a decline in risk premia, prompted the South African Reserve Bank to leave its repo rate at 8.25%, bringing this... 20th July 2023 · 3 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Focus How can Egypt unlock its economic potential? Egyptian policymakers’ commitment (or lack of) to economic orthodoxy continues to provide cause for concern and, while we don’t share the view that sovereign default is a serious risk, the near-term... 20th July 2023 · 19 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Assessing the early evidence of “friend-shoring” in EMs One way in which EMs may benefit from the fragmentation of the global economy into US- and China-aligned blocs is via “friend-shoring”. There appears to be evidence that the US is importing a higher... 19th July 2023 · 4 mins read
South Africa Activity Data (May) The worse-than-expected South African retail sales figures for May add to the raft of weak activity data and it looks like things may get even worse over the coming months. Coupled with figures... 19th July 2023 · 3 mins read
India Chart Pack India Chart Pack (Jul. 2023) Our India Chart Pack has been updated to reflect the most recent data and developments as well as our latest analysis. Our View: India’s economy is showing signs of coming off the boil and, with... 19th July 2023 · 1 min read
South Africa Consumer Prices (Jun.) The larger-than-expected fall in South Africa’s headline inflation rate to 5.4% y/y in June brings it back within the Reserve Bank’s 3-6% target range for the first time since April 2022 and means... 19th July 2023 · 2 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly Loadshedding in SA, Kenya protests, Nigeria policy shift Cold weather in South Africa prompted officials to return to Stage 6 loadshedding this week, threatening a fresh blow to the economy. We doubt that concerns about the inflationary impact of power cuts... 14th July 2023 · 7 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Turkey policy, Polish spending, Russia’s current account The raft of data for May out of Turkey this week underscored the precarious state of the economy prior to the shift back to orthodox economic policymaking. The central bank needs to use next week’s... 14th July 2023 · 7 mins read
India Economics Weekly Rice export ban looms, Foxconn U-turn As the El Niño threat mounts, speculation over a ban on rice exports is growing. A ban would probably help to keep a lid on domestic prices but have severe implications for the global market... 14th July 2023 · 3 mins read