Climate Economics Monthly El Niño + global warming = long-term EM headache “The Boy” is back Much ink has been spilled – not least by ourselves – on the potential impacts of the return of El Niño conditions on commodities and economies. It’s fair to say that some of the... 27th July 2023 · 6 mins read
Africa Economics Update What would make the SARB hike again? Policymakers at the South African Reserve Bank are keen to emphasise that their work to tame the “inflation monster” is not over, leaving open the possibility of additional monetary tightening. The... 27th July 2023 · 3 mins read
DM Valuations Monitor Global Markets Valuations Monitor (July 2023) The continued rise in the valuations of “risky” assets relative to “safe” ones mostly seems to reflect growing confidence in the economic outlook. We think that optimism will be disappointed and that... 26th July 2023 · 1 min read
Africa Chart Pack Africa Chart Pack (Jul. 2023) This new Chart Pack has been designed to replace our Chart Book in response to client feedback to make our insights more accessible, and with more options to incorporate them into your workflow. Use... 26th July 2023 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Emerging Europe Chart Pack (Jul. 2023) This new Chart Pack has been designed to replace our Chart Book in response to client feedback to make our insights more accessible, and with more options to incorporate them into your workflow. Use... 26th July 2023 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Israel’s judicial reforms present key downside risks The Israeli government’s decision to press ahead with its controversial judicial reforms won’t necessarily cause foreign investment into Israel to dry up, but the direction of policymaking threatens... 25th July 2023 · 4 mins read
Hungary Interest Rate Announcement (July) Hungary’s central bank (MNB) announced another 100bp cut to its one-day quick deposit rate (the key policy rate at the moment) today, to 15.00%, and this is likely to be followed by 100bp cuts at each... 25th July 2023 · 2 mins read
Latin America Rapid Response Brazil IPCA-15 (July 2023) The Brazilian July mid-month inflation reading of 3.2% y/y suggests that price pressures are weaker than we and most others had thought. While we still think it’s most likely that the central bank... 25th July 2023 · 2 mins read
India Economics Update Investment growth entering a softer patch Investment held up well in the first half of the year but the recent moderation in credit growth and the messages from the latest survey data suggest that it is going to enter a softer patch over the... 25th July 2023 · 2 mins read
China Economics Update China and Japanification: How great is the risk? China is not suffering a balance sheet recession: most private firms are not highly indebted and would borrow if they had more confidence in the economic outlook. But there are other parallels with... 24th July 2023 · 4 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EMs set for rate cuts, despite hikes in DMs While the Fed and the ECB are set to hike interest rates this week, subsiding inflation means that the upcoming EM central bank meetings will tilt towards monetary easing. And we expect that the EM... 24th July 2023 · 3 mins read
Latin America Rapid Response Mexico Bi-Weekly CPI (Jul.) Mexico’s headline inflation rate eased further in the first half of July but the fresh rise in services inflation will be a concern for Banxico officials. The tightening cycle is unlikely to be... 24th July 2023 · 2 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Egypt: end of Black Sea deal to add to near-term pain The end to the Black Sea grain deal has put Egypt’s vulnerability to rising global wheat prices back in the spotlight. Even if supply disruptions are avoided, higher wheat prices would add to strains... 24th July 2023 · 3 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly Food supplies, Nigeria’s iffy price data, Kenya unrest African economies are particularly vulnerable if the collapse of the Black Sea Grain Deal as well as India’s ban on the export of all non-basmati white rice leads to food supply disruptions. At the... 21st July 2023 · 6 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Russia’s fiscal pressures, Turkey’s policy shift on thin ice A raft of comments from senior policymakers at the Russian Ministry of Finance this week highlight the pressures that the public finances are under. For now, policymakers are responding by tightening... 21st July 2023 · 7 mins read