RBI Watch Food inflation surge muddies the policymaking waters The recent surge in food price inflation means the RBI’s policy decision on Thursday 10 th August is now less of a formality than it had appeared. On balance, we still think that the MPC will keep the... 2nd August 2023 · 6 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Renewed weakness in EM industry driven by China The fall in the EM manufacturing PMI to a six-month low in July was mainly driven by a renewed drop in China, but the surveys generally remained downbeat across most EMs last month. We think EM... 1st August 2023 · 3 mins read
Latin America Rapid Response Brazil Industrial Production (June 2023) The slightly better-than-expected 0.1% m/m increase in Brazilian industrial production in June indicates that the sector grew a little more quickly in Q2 than it did in Q1. Even so, there’s nothing in... 1st August 2023 · 2 mins read
Africa Rapid Response South Africa Manufacturing PMI (Jul.) South Africa’s manufacturing PMI fell even further in July as power cuts intensified again and the outlook remains bleak – we remain comfortable with our forecast for the economy as a whole to... 1st August 2023 · 2 mins read
India Rapid Response Manufacturing PMI (Jul.) India’s manufacturing PMI edged down in July to a three-month low, and we expect higher rates and subdued global demand to weigh more substantially on manufacturing activity over the coming months. 1st August 2023 · 2 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Rapid Response Saudi Arabia GDP (Q2 2023, Flash Estimate) Saudi Arabia’s flash GDP estimate showed that the economy fell into a technical recession on the back of oil output cuts, whereas the non-oil economy continued to post robust growth. With the Kingdom... 31st July 2023 · 2 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly Nigeria and Ghana’s contrasting hikes, Niger’s coup We expect Nigeria’s central bank to follow up its underwhelming 25bp interest rate hike this week, with more aggressive action at the next meeting as inflation should have risen sharply. Still, a... 28th July 2023 · 5 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Turkey’s Erkan in the spotlight, Israel’s pivotal week Turkey's new central bank governor presented a much more realistic set of inflation forecasts and delivered a convincing message at her first Inflation Report briefing this week. The priority is... 28th July 2023 · 10 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EM food security risks back in the spotlight Risks to EM food supply have increased amid the likelihood of an El Niño, the end to the Black Sea grain deal and India’s rice export ban. Countries in the Middle East and Africa are the most... 28th July 2023 · 4 mins read
India Economics Weekly BJP faces no-confidence vote, July inflation surge The no-confidence vote that has been triggered against Prime Minister Modi's BJP is highly unlikely to lead to the fall of the government given the BJP's sizeable parliamentary majority. But it may... 28th July 2023 · 5 mins read
Event EM Drop-In: Rate cuts, friendshoring, the carry trade and more 1691067600 In the latest of our monthly EM Drop-Ins, Shilan Shah le a team of economists from across our EM and Markets services to answer client questions on what’s happening in EM mac
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Saudi sporting focus, Egypt dollar draw, Tunisia loan Saudi Arabia’s Pro League went from the back pages to the front pages this week after Al-Hilal record bid for PSG’s Kylian Mbappé. While the news has put renewed attention on the Kingdom’s sporting... 27th July 2023 · 8 mins read