India Rapid Response Consumer Prices (Aug.) & Industrial Production (Jul.) The drop in headline consumer price inflation in August should provide some welcome relief for the RBI. But while we expect inflation to grind lower over the coming months, a severe El Niño and... 12th September 2023 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Turkey Activity Data (Jul.) Industrial production softened a touch in Turkey in July but retail sales continued its recent run of strength and adds further support to the view that the economy is not yet slowing in response to... 12th September 2023 · 2 mins read
Latin America Rapid Response Mexico Industrial Production (Jul.) Mexico’s industrial sector posted a slightly larger-than-expected 0.5% m/m increase in output in July and the survey evidence suggests that activity continued to hold up well in August. But we still... 11th September 2023 · 2 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Assessing the impact of Morocco’s earthquake The devastating earthquake that hit Morocco on Friday evening has severe humanitarian consequences, but, from a purely economic standpoint, it should only have a small and short-lived impact on GDP... 11th September 2023 · 4 mins read
China Economics Update PBOC rate cuts: Go big or go home The quantitative tools that the PBOC relied on to pump up credit growth during previous downturns have become ineffective due to weak demand. That leaves interest rates as the main avenue for monetary... 11th September 2023 · 6 mins read
China Rapid Response Bank Lending & Broad Credit (Aug.) China’s bank loan growth stabilised in August after declining for three consecutive months, and broad credit growth edged up from July’s record low. We think that policy easing could drive a modest... 11th September 2023 · 3 mins read
China Rapid Response Consumer & Producer Prices (Aug.) CPI exited deflation in August, and PPI rose for the first time in nine months. Core inflation remained unchanged after hitting a 11-month high in July, while services inflation rose to its highest in... 11th September 2023 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Russia Consumer Prices (Aug.) The further rise in Russian inflation to 5.2% y/y in August is a sign that the economy is bumping up against capacity constraints and we think it will continue to increase over the coming months. The... 8th September 2023 · 2 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Mexico’s presidential race begins Former Mexico City mayor Claudia Sheinbaum was unveiled as the ruling Morena party’s presidential candidate this week and with her facing off against the main opposition candidate Xóchitl Gálvez in... 8th September 2023 · 7 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Dovish NBP skating on thin ice after bumper rate cut The decision by the National Bank of Poland (NBP) to kick off its easing cycle this week with a much larger-than-expected 75bp interest rate cut has been heavily criticised, and suggests to us that... 8th September 2023 · 6 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Emerging Markets Capital Flows Monitor (Sep. 2023) Having remained resilient over the past months, inflows into EM bonds and equity markets have turned negative in recent weeks. Inflows into Turkey have weakened despite August’s sharp interest rate... 8th September 2023 · 3 mins read
India Economics Weekly G20 non-starter, RBI’s speedbumps This weekend’s G20 summit in New Delhi will undoubtedly be presented as a foreign policy triumph by the BJP as next year’s general election creeps onto the horizon. But for all the fanfare in India... 8th September 2023 · 5 mins read
China Economics Weekly Huawei’s chip breakthrough Huawei’s new phone suggests that SMIC, China’s top chipmaker, has succeeded in mass-producing 7nm chips, an important step towards technological self-sufficiency. But it is too early to conclude that... 8th September 2023 · 9 mins read
Capital Daily EM bonds may underperform despite early easing cycles Emerging market (EM) easing cycles are underway in earnest even as the first Fed cut remains a while away. We think this easing will help to drive EM local-currency (LC) government bond yields lower... 7th September 2023 · 4 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Saudi oil output cut, another delay to Egypt’s IMF review? Saudi Arabia announced it will roll over its additional voluntary 1mn bpd oil output cut until the end of the year, which we think will push the economy into a sharp contraction over the second half... 7th September 2023 · 9 mins read
Latin America Rapid Response Mexico Consumer Prices (Aug.) Mexico’s headline inflation rate edged down again in August, to 4.6% y/y, on the back of softer core price pressures but, with services inflation still proving stubborn, Banxico is unlikely to begin... 7th September 2023 · 2 mins read
