Emerging Europe Rapid Response

Turkey Activity Data (Aug.)

The m/m falls in Turkish retail sales and industrial production in August provided the first clear signs that economic activity has started to soften following the policy U-turn earlier this year...

11th October 2023 · 2 mins read

Emerging Markets Economics Update

Emerging Markets Capital Flows Monitor (Oct. 2023)

Flows out of EM bonds and equity markets have intensified in recent weeks amid the sell-off in global bond markets, and an escalation of the conflict between Israel and Gaza would exacerbate this...

10th October 2023 · 3 mins read

Middle East & North Africa Economics Update

A fresh look at Egypt’s external position

Despite a marked improvement in Egypt’s current account deficit, the pound’s de-facto peg is deterring critical capital inflows and adding to concerns over large external financing needs. A fresh...

10th October 2023 · 4 mins read

Middle East & North Africa Rapid Response

Egypt Consumer Prices (Sep. 2023)

Egypt’s headline inflation rate picked up from 37.4% y/y in August to a fresh multi-decade high of 38.0% y/y in September but we think that, even with another devaluation of the pound on the horizon...

10th October 2023 · 2 mins read

Emerging Europe Rapid Response

Czechia Consumer Prices (Sep.)

The larger-than-expected fall in Czech inflation in September, to 6.9% y/y, increases the chance of policymakers kickstarting a monetary easing cycle at their next meeting in November. We remain...

10th October 2023 · 2 mins read

Emerging Europe Economics Weekly

Turkey rebalancing, UAH, Glapinski’s guidance

Data out of Turkey this week provided some of the first clear signs that the recent policy U-turn is starting to rebalance the economy. This couldn’t come any sooner – Turkey remains among the most...

6th October 2023 · 7 mins read

India Economics Weekly

Rupee weakness not a major macro concern

The rupee has been hovering close to record lows this week amid the sell-off in global bond markets. But the good news is that the macroeconomic impact of a weakening rupee is limited. Meanwhile, the...

6th October 2023 · 4 mins read

China Economics Weekly

PBOC has CNH on a leash, domestic tourism picks up

PBOC intervention in Hong Kong kept the offshore renminbi largely stable against the dollar this week even as US yields jumped. This lowers the chance of a large adjustment to the daily fixing rate...

6th October 2023 · 7 mins read

India Economics Update

RBI stands firm in fight against inflation

The RBI kept the repo rate on hold at 6.50% today as expected and continued to strike a hawkish tone despite the recent easing in inflation. Indeed, it even raised the possibility of open-market bond...

6th October 2023 · 3 mins read

India Rapid Response

RBI Policy Announcement (Oct.)

The RBI kept the repo rate on hold at 6.50% today as expected and continued to strike a hawkish tone despite the recent easing in headline inflation. There is still a significant risk of the easing...

6th October 2023 · 2 mins read

Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly

Egypt election and UAE swap line, OPEC+, Saudi labour

Egypt’s upcoming election in December has led to policy paralysis, particularly around the exchange rate. The currency swap line opened with the UAE this week appears aimed at bolstering resources to...

5th October 2023 · 8 mins read

Emerging Europe Rapid Response

Romania Interest Rate Announcement (Oct.)

The National Bank of Romania (NBR) kept its main policy rate unchanged at 7.00% today, and we expect policy to remain on hold into next year. The NBR will be the last in Central and Eastern Europe to...

5th October 2023 · 2 mins read

Emerging Europe Rapid Response

Poland Interest Rate Announcement (Oct.)

The National Bank of Poland’s (NBP’s) decision to cut interest rates again today, from 6.00% to 5.75%, suggests that the doves are ruling the roost on the MPC, but we think that interest rates...

4th October 2023 · 2 mins read

Middle East & North Africa Economics Focus

Tectonic shifts in the Saudi labour market

Saudi Arabia’s labour market has strengthened markedly in its post-pandemic recovery and the headline figures mask a dramatic shift in the size and composition of the labour force. In particular...

4th October 2023 · 13 mins read

Latin America Economics Focus

Brazil: rate cuts won’t prevent a sharp slowdown

Brazil’s monetary easing cycle will probably lead to higher spending in interest rate sensitive areas such as furniture and appliances, autos and construction materials. But that won’t be enough to...

3rd October 2023 · 14 mins read