China Economics Weekly Investment still the preferred policy lever to pull We wouldn’t take this week’s pledge from the Politburo to tilt stimulus towards consumption at face value. The only concrete measures along these lines that have been announced recently have been more... 2nd August 2024 · 5 mins read
China Economics Update Urbanisation won’t be a key growth driver In its new urbanisation plan, China’s government is setting its targets low. The goal of reaching a 70% urbanisation rate in five years’ time could be met with far smaller increases in the urban... 2nd August 2024 · 4 mins read
India Economics Weekly RBI’s bond restrictions, policy meeting preview The RBI's surprise move this week to restrict foreign access in some long-dated sovereign bonds highlights the bumpy path for foreign investors as policymakers balance a push for more overseas... 2nd August 2024 · 3 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EM manufacturing finally running out of steam The sharp fall in the EM manufacturing PMI suggests that the recent strength of industry may not be sustained in Q3. The declines in the PMIs were broad-based, although they are still relatively high... 1st August 2024 · 2 mins read
Emerging Markets Financial Risk Monitor EM Financial Risk Monitor (Aug. 2024) Financial vulnerabilities have continued to ease across EMs. Our EM aggregate currency crisis risk indicator hit a multi-year low in Q2, with especially large falls in Turkey and Pakistan. Sovereign... 1st August 2024 · 1 min read
Event Drop-In: EM financial risk update – The state of sovereign, bank and FX vulnerabilities 1723125600 How has the level of financial risk evolved among emerging markets over the past three months?
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Czech Interest Rate Announcement (Aug.) Czech National Bank Governor Michl sounded fairly cautious in his guidance about the future course of the easing cycle in the post-meeting press conference today. But the post-meeting statement struck... 1st August 2024 · 3 mins read
Africa Data Response South Africa Manufacturing PMI (Jul.) South Africa’s manufacturing PMI jumped in July, suggesting that improving electricity supply conditions and reduced political uncertainty are starting to support activity. While the economy may... 1st August 2024 · 2 mins read
RBI Watch Policy loosening to begin by year-end The upside inflation surprise in June means it is all but guaranteed that the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) will keep the repo rate on hold at 6.50% at the conclusion of its MPC meeting on Thursday 8th... 1st August 2024 · 6 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Manufacturing PMIs (Jul.) The manufacturing PMIs for July suggest that industrial sectors lost a bit of momentum in Turkey and Russia at the start of Q3, although demand conditions still appear very strong in Russia. In both... 1st August 2024 · 2 mins read
Africa Chart Pack Africa Chart Pack (Jul. 2024) GDP growth is likely to pick up over the coming quarters as inflation falls back in most SSA economies and monetary easing cycles broaden out. The external environment will remain challenging... 31st July 2024 · 0 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Russia Activity Data (Jun.) Russia’s economy lost a bit of steam in June, but it still looks like GDP growth over Q2 as a whole was very strong, with growth tracking at 4.5-5.0% y/y. 31st July 2024 · 2 mins read
Asset Allocation Update We are optimistic about EM sovereign bonds’ returns Our view on emerging market local-currency government bonds is broadly upbeat for the next year or so. We think returns will be largest, in common-currency terms, in Emerging Asia. 31st July 2024 · 4 mins read
Africa Economics Update Weak demand holding back S. Africa’s economy The fading drag from load-shedding was widely expected to allow a recovery in South Africa’s economy this year, but this hasn’t materialised. We think that weak demand is to blame, itself a symptom of... 31st July 2024 · 4 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Rapid Response Saudi Arabia GDP (Q2 ‘24 Flash Estimate) Saudi Arabia’s flash estimate of GDP showed that that the economy grew by a solid 1.4% q/q in Q2 and, while non-oil activity is likely to slow over the second half of this year, it will be more than... 31st July 2024 · 2 mins read