Emerging Europe Economics Update Russia’s defence spending to raise inflation, fiscal risks The 2025 draft budget recently outlined by Russia’s finance ministry shows that, rather than falling next year as initially planned, defence spending will rise by more than 20% to hit 6.2% of GDP... 3rd October 2024 · 4 mins read
Africa Economics Update Is Nigeria benefitting from a weaker naira? The Nigerian naira has fallen by more than 70% against the dollar since President Tinubu came to office, which has contributed to a surge in inflation that has weighed on economic growth. There are... 3rd October 2024 · 4 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Focus EMs, fracturing and the scramble for raw materials Access to commodities – particularly critical minerals – is a growing area of competition between China and the West. And those EMs with deposits of the minerals used in new and low-carbon... 3rd October 2024 · 13 mins read
China Economics Update China stimulus: your questions answered China’s recent stimulus announcements are still at the top of many investors’ minds, at least judging by the high level of client interest in the online briefing we ran on the topic yesterday. We’ve... 3rd October 2024 · 8 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Turkey Consumer Prices (Sep.) The smaller-than-expected decline in Turkey’s headline rate to 49.4% y/y in September will be a disappointment to policymakers at the central bank, and supports our view that a monetary easing cycle... 3rd October 2024 · 2 mins read
Event Drop-In: The global macro and markets outlook – What you need to know 1728396000 The euro-zone has stalled, the US labour market is cooling and China has only belatedly announced stimulus measures.
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Poland Interest Rate Announcement (Oct.) The decision by the National Bank of Poland to leave its policy rate on hold again today, at 5.75%, was never in doubt, and we continue to think that the easing cycle won’t resume until mid-2025. Our... 2nd October 2024 · 2 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EM manufacturing slowed sharply in Q3 The fall in the EM manufacturing PMI in September suggests that growth slowed last quarter and we think this will continue over the coming months. The PMIs did at least provide encouraging signs that... 1st October 2024 · 3 mins read
China Chart Pack China Chart Pack (Sep. 24) The pivot toward stimulus reduces near-term risks and should provide some much-needed support to an economy struggling with a softening labour market and a deep property downturn. But a rebound in... 1st October 2024 · 1 min read
Africa Rapid Response South Africa Manufacturing PMI (Sep.) South Africa’s manufacturing PMI rebounded in August, finally replicating the improvements we have seen in other survey indicators. A backdrop of interest rate cuts and improving supply conditions... 1st October 2024 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Manufacturing PMIs (Sep.) The sharp fall in the manufacturing PMIs in Turkey and Russia in September provide further evidence that their economies are slowing. But the continued rise in the prices balances of the survey in... 1st October 2024 · 2 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack Middle East and North Africa Chart Pack (Sep. '24) Our Middle East and North Africa Chart Pack has been updated to reflect the latest data and developments in the region. Headline GDP growth in the Gulf economies will strengthen in 2025 as oil output... 30th September 2024 · 1 min read
China Rapid Response China PMIs (Sep. 2024) While the official PMIs held up okay in September, the Caixin PMIs dropped quite sharply which suggests that the economy lost some momentum this month. The stimulus package announced last week thus... 30th September 2024 · 3 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly CBN surprise hike, Kenya’s turn to Abu Dhabi The Central Bank of Nigeria’s surprise interest rate hike this week highlighted the greater progress that the MPC wants to see on the inflation front and also importantly its steadfast ambition to... 27th September 2024 · 5 mins read
China Economic Outlook Pivot to stimulus lowers immediate risks A pivot towards fiscal and monetary stimulus should support China’s growth in the near-term. But the economy continues to be propped up by investment, still elevated levels of construction, and the... 27th September 2024 · 16 mins read
Latin America Rapid Response Mexico Interest Rate Announcement (Sep.) 26th September 2024 · 2 mins read
