Africa Rapid Response Nigeria Consumer Prices (October.) Nigeria’s headline inflation accelerated again to 27.3% y/y in September, as the removal of fuel subsidies and the naira’s struggles continued to feed through. The central bank will need to respond... 15th November 2023 · 2 mins read
Africa Rapid Response South Africa Activity Data (Sep.) September’s activity data for South Africa suggest that the economy probably stagnated over Q3 as a whole. Some of the recent drags on the economy, such as loadshedding, are likely to ease in 2024 but... 15th November 2023 · 3 mins read
Global Markets Update A bright outlook for EM bonds, but not just yet We think that bonds in Emerging Markets (EMs) will struggle in the next couple of months. Further ahead, though, we expect their yields to fall, as both “risk-free” rates and spreads drop. In view of... 15th November 2023 · 4 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Rapid Response Saudi Arabia Consumer Prices (Oct. 2023) Saudi Arabia’s headline inflation rate edged down from 1.7% y/y in September to 1.6% y/y in October, the weakest pace of inflation in nearly two years, and we expect that inflation will continue to... 15th November 2023 · 2 mins read
China Rapid Response Activity & Spending (Oct.) Retail sales and industrial output remained resilient at the start of Q4. Fixed investment is still fairly subdued while tentative signs of improvement in the property sector appears to have fizzled... 15th November 2023 · 4 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Egypt: inflation on the way down, but upside risks remain Data over the weekend showed that Egypt’s inflation rate slowed, confirming that September marked the peak, and our baseline scenario is that it will continue to drop back as we head into 2024. The... 13th November 2023 · 3 mins read
India Rapid Response Consumer Prices (Oct.) Headline consumer price inflation edged down to a four-month low of 4.9% y/y in October, but that’s already old news given the renewed surge in vegetable prices so far in November. 13th November 2023 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Turkey Activity Data (Sep.) Turkish retail sales and industrial production both fell again in m/m terms in September and GDP growth looks to have slowed sharply in the third quarter as a whole. The impact of policy tightening... 13th November 2023 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Russia Consumer Prices (Oct.) The further chunky rise in Russian inflation to 6.7% y/y in October provides additional evidence that demand is outstripping supply in Russia’s economy. We think that inflation will continue to rise... 10th November 2023 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Hawkish CEE central banks, EU expanding further east Communications from central bankers across Central and Eastern Europe this week struck a decisively hawkish tone, suggesting that interest rates could be left on hold across most of the region in the... 10th November 2023 · 9 mins read
Africa Economics Update Assessing public debt risks in Africa In this Update, we present our sovereign debt heat map that provides a snapshot of debt risks across Sub-Saharan Africa. Government debt is still above pre-pandemic levels and most economies we cover... 10th November 2023 · 5 mins read
India Economics Weekly State elections, grain scheme extension, food inflation The extension of the free food grain scheme by another five years is clearly geared towards firming up support for the BJP ahead of state elections this month (as well as the general election next... 10th November 2023 · 4 mins read
China Economics Weekly Chinese exporters gain market share by slashing prices Export values have been contracting year-on-year for six months. But that’s almost entirely due to price effects. Export volumes have recently risen to record levels, with broad-based price cuts... 10th November 2023 · 7 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Emerging Markets Capital Flows Monitor (Nov. 2023) Flows out of EM bond and equity markets have eased since early October, but we think the recent dollar weakness which has helped to support capital flows into EMs is unlikely to continue. The good... 10th November 2023 · 4 mins read
Latin America Rapid Response Mexico Interest Rate Announcement (Nov.) Mexico’s central bank sprung no surprises and left its policy rate at 11.25% at today’s Board meeting and the accompanying statement retained its hawkish bias. That said, there was a very modest hint... 9th November 2023 · 2 mins read
FX Markets Update Rebound in “carry” currencies may prove short-lived High carry EM currencies have rallied as US bond yields have fallen back and risk sentiment has improved, but we still expect most of these currencies to come under renewed pressure in the coming... 9th November 2023 · 2 mins read