Emerging Markets Economics Update The end of ultra-low rates and what it means for EMs In our flagship report on the neutral interest rate (r*), we argued that r* in developed markets will rise and be higher than is widely assumed. (The full report can be accessed here.) For most EMs, r... 20th November 2023 · 4 mins read
Africa Economics Update South Africa: drag from loadshedding set to ease The intensification of loadshedding has brought growth in South Africa’s economy to a halt this year, but there appears (finally) to be some light at the end of the tunnel. Repairs to existing power... 20th November 2023 · 6 mins read
Latin America Rapid Response Chile GDP (Q3 2023) The 0.3% q/q expansion in Chile’s GDP in Q3 suggests that the recovery is beginning to take hold. We continue to expect above-consensus GDP growth in 2024-25. 20th November 2023 · 2 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Argentina: Milei’s win brings shock therapy onto the table Javier Milei’s victory in the final round of Argentina’s presidential election yesterday will bring about a major shift in economic policymaking. We suspect that some of his more radical proposals –... 20th November 2023 · 4 mins read
China Activity Monitor CAP: Growth softened at the start of Q4 Our China Activity Proxy (CAP) shows that the economy was still making headway last month, though it appears to have lost some steam. Downside risks continue to linger, particularly in the property... 20th November 2023 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Israel rate cut bets increase, key stories from Q3 GDP Data for October out of Israel this week suggest that the initial impact of the conflict with Hamas on the export sector was fairly limited, that inflation pressures continued to ease and that the... 17th November 2023 · 7 mins read
China Economics Weekly State taking a bigger role in homebuilding Local governments are stepping up the construction of public housing, providing a partial offset to the downturn in developer homebuilding. One consequence is that the privatization of China’s housing... 17th November 2023 · 5 mins read
India Economics Weekly Trade deficit balloons, RBI cracks the whip The goods trade deficit soared to a record high in October and, though it is likely to moderate over the coming months, the overall current account deficit will probably come in a bit wider than we... 17th November 2023 · 3 mins read
Asset Allocation Update The US/China relationship and global financial markets With a lot of pessimism seemingly already priced in to China’s “risky” assets, we suspect any further thawing in US/China relations could give them a boost. But we think their longer-term outlook is... 17th November 2023 · 6 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Public debt risks remain acute in several Frontiers Sovereign debt risks across Frontier Markets have eased slightly since last quarter. But dollar-bond spreads in Ethiopia have jumped following its request for debt-service suspension earlier this week... 16th November 2023 · 3 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Saudi’s Civil Code, Saudi solar & nuclear, Egypt-Israel gas Saudi Arabia’s new Civil Code should help to remove some of the uncertainty in commercial law and marks another step on the path to raising foreign investment. Meanwhile, a new raft of solar projects... 16th November 2023 · 7 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Israel GDP (Q3) The slight slowdown in Israeli GDP growth to 2.8% q/q annualised in Q3 was more or less in line with expectations but comes before a likely sharp drop in Q4 amid the impact of the war with Hamas. We... 16th November 2023 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Russia GDP (Q3) The rise in Russian GDP growth to 5.5% y/y in Q3 was larger than expected and adds to evidence that the economy continued to overheat last quarter. With fiscal policy set to loosen further and... 15th November 2023 · 2 mins read
Latin America Rapid Response Colombia GDP (Q3 2023) The softer-than-expected 0.2% q/q rise in Colombian GDP in Q3, coming alongside signs that the economy was weakening towards the end of the quarter, suggests that growth over the year as a whole will... 15th November 2023 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russia: outlook remains fragile despite oil price boost The squeeze on Russia’s budget and current account positions has eased over the second half of this year, largely thanks to a rise in oil prices. Higher energy revenues next year should help to limit... 15th November 2023 · 5 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Saudi Arabia: recession nearing an end The latest Saudi GDP data paint a downbeat picture in which the recession has deepened amid oil output cuts. But the good news is that the recession looks to be coming to an end. And we think the... 15th November 2023 · 4 mins read