Latin America Rapid Response Mexico Consumer Prices (Dec.) The larger-than-expected rise in Mexico’s headline inflation rate to 4.7% y/y in December was mainly due to higher non-core inflation but, even so, the odds of Banxico beginning an easing cycle at its... 9th January 2024 · 3 mins read
Climate Economics Update Clearing the air on the economics of pollution Given the thick smog covering parts of South Asia, forcing schools to shut down and disrupting activity, this Update takes a closer look into the economics of air pollution. In light of the... 8th January 2024 · 3 mins read
Latin America Economics Focus Mexico: will nearshoring live up to the hype? The optimism about Mexico’s economic prospects from the “nearshoring” of supply chains looks overdone in our view. Sectors where Mexico is already well established, such as autos and some electronics... 8th January 2024 · 28 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Economic Sentiment Indicators (Dec.) The European Commission's Economic Sentiment Indicators for Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) generally continued to rise in December and point to regional activity strengthening at the end of 2023... 8th January 2024 · 2 mins read
Africa Rapid Response South Africa Manufacturing PMI (Dec.) South Africa’s manufacturing PMI rose to an 11-month high in December, helped by an easing of loadshedding. Alongside hopes that recent freight problems are past the worst, this chimes with our view... 8th January 2024 · 2 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly Nigeria deficit, Ethiopia-Somalia tensions, Kenya GDP Nigeria’s 2024 budget, signed into law this week, included encouraging signs that the government will cease deficit monetisation, providing hope that the Tinubu administration’s reform momentum hasn’t... 5th January 2024 · 5 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Bank of Israel cuts rates, Turkey’s rebalancing in focus Israel's central bank started its monetary easing cycle this week with a 25bp interest rate cut - a move that came a bit sooner than we'd expected. But inflation risks are greater than most anticipate... 5th January 2024 · 9 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Argentina’s IMF deal, Chile’s recovery, Nafta turns 30 President Milei's stabilisation plan for Argentina's economy makes it more likely that the IMF will agree to relax the current programme criteria when officials from both sides meet later today. But... 5th January 2024 · 8 mins read
China Economics Weekly Investors price in rate cuts, PBOC taps lending scheme In contrast to elsewhere, bond yields in China continued to drop this week as investors increasingly come around to our view that further cuts to policy rates and reserve requirements are imminent... 5th January 2024 · 7 mins read
India Economics Weekly Remittances to boost current account position Data from the World Bank show that India remained the world's largest recipient of remittances in 2023. While growth in remittances will slow a touch in 2024, they should remain an important source of... 5th January 2024 · 4 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Egypt fiscal tightening, PMIs, regional tensions brewing The announcement by Egypt’s government of a raft of price hikes will help to offset the impact on the budget position from surging debt servicing costs and lay the ground for getting an improved IMF... 4th January 2024 · 7 mins read
Africa Economics Update Nigeria: refineries to help but not solve external strains Output from Nigeria’s oil refinery sector has been in terminal decline, inflating the fuel import bill at a time when the economy is already suffering from a shortage of hard currency. The new Dangote... 4th January 2024 · 5 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Egypt’s economic struggles look set to persist In the past few years, Egypt’s economy has been hit by the successive impacts of the pandemic, the war in Ukraine, and, more recently, currency devaluations. With further currency falls on the cards... 3rd January 2024 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Turkey Consumer Prices (Dec.) The rise in Turkish inflation to 64.8% y/y in December was broadly in line with expectations and the breakdown provided some signs that underlying price pressures continue to soften. We think the... 3rd January 2024 · 2 mins read
India Rapid Response Manufacturing PMI (Dec.) The manufacturing PMI survey for December suggests that activity lost some momentum at the end of 2023. That said, we think that growth in the sector is likely to hold up well in 2024 and that India... 3rd January 2024 · 2 mins read
Event Drop-In: 2024 EM Outlook – Big growth divergence in a big election year 1704987000 The past 12 months have seen marked divergence in growth across emerging markets economies, as well as the start of easing cycles among some of their central banks.
