Africa Economics Weekly

South Africa IRP, Transnet cash, World Bank optimism

South Africa presented its draft energy plan, which brought bad news to those concerned about loadshedding and the commitment to reducing greenhouse gas emissions. Meanwhile, the country’s finance...

12th January 2024 · 6 mins read

Emerging Europe Economics Weekly

Soft CPI data point to faster rate cuts in parts of CEE

The softer-than-expected December inflation data released across Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) this week suggest that further interest rate cuts will be delivered across the region over the coming...

12th January 2024 · 5 mins read

Emerging Europe Rapid Response

Romania Interest Rate Announcement (Jan.)

The National Bank of Romania (NBR) left its policy rate unchanged at 7.00% today and, although a monetary easing cycle seems to be drawing nearer, we think that interest rates are unlikely to be cut...

12th January 2024 · 2 mins read

India Rapid Response

Consumer Prices (Dec.)

The rise in headline consumer price inflation to a four-month high in December supports our view that the central bank will be in no rush to loosen policy. We expect rate cuts to materialise in the...

12th January 2024 · 2 mins read

China Economics Weekly

Stronger data ahead as PBOC continues to ease

The Q4 GDP data due on Wednesday are likely to confirm what we’ve been saying for some time – that the economy was regaining momentum at the end of 2023 thanks to policy support. That recovery is...

12th January 2024 · 7 mins read

China Rapid Response

Bank Lending & Broad Credit (Dec.)

The rebound in broad credit growth remained on track thanks to a step up in government borrowing. But growth in bank loans undershot expectations, dropping to its lowest level in over two decades...

12th January 2024 · 3 mins read

China Rapid Response

Merchandise Trade (Dec.)

China’s export values rose y/y at the fastest rate since April. And while export volumes only ticked up slightly, they remain near a record high. We are sceptical that this strength is sustainable...

12th January 2024 · 2 mins read

India Economics Weekly

Air pollution threat, FDI outlook, CPI data

Air quality levels in India have been the worst on record in recent weeks and the country's reliance on coal suggests that this will remain an economic headwind for a long time to come. That doesn't...

12th January 2024 · 4 mins read

China Rapid Response

Consumer & Producer Prices (Dec.)

Smaller y/y declines in a food and energy prices meant that both CPI and PPI deflation eased last month, a trend that we think will continue over the coming quarters. But concerns about low inflation...

12th January 2024 · 2 mins read

Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly

Egypt’s IMF deal, Saudi’s fiscal position and bond issuance

An expansion of Egypt’s IMF deal appears to be edging closer following meetings between its government and the Fund and US Treasury this week. A shift back towards economic orthodoxy, including the...

11th January 2024 · 7 mins read

Emerging Europe Economics Update

NBP has limited scope for rate cuts in 2024

Communications from the governor of the National Bank of Poland (NBP) today suggest to us that policymakers could cut interest rates again at the central bank’s March meeting. But we think core...

10th January 2024 · 3 mins read

Asia Economics Update

What happens after Taiwan's election?

China may respond to a victory for Tsai Ing-wen’s chosen successor in Saturday’s presidential election in Taiwan with stepped-up military drills. But any economic sanctions would almost certainly be...

10th January 2024 · 6 mins read

Middle East & North Africa Rapid Response

Egypt Consumer Prices (Dec. 2023)

Egypt’s headline inflation rate eased for a third consecutive from 34.6% y/y in November to 33.6% y/y in December. Comments last night suggest that an enhanced IMF deal is near, which is likely to...

10th January 2024 · 2 mins read

Emerging Markets Economics Update

Expect more EM growth divergence in 2024

Aggregate EM GDP growth is set to slow in 2024, but as important as the overall story is understanding the different cycles that are playing out at a country level. We think some countries which...

9th January 2024 · 3 mins read

Emerging Europe Rapid Response

Poland Interest Rate Announcement (Jan.)

The National Bank of Poland (NBP) left interest rates on hold again today, at 5.75%, and we continue to think that the scope for monetary loosening ahead is relatively limited. While the consensus...

9th January 2024 · 2 mins read