Emerging Europe Rapid Response

Poland Activity Data (Dec.)

Poland’s retail sales data for December suggest that consumer spending weakened at the end of last year, although the industrial sector held up better than expected and we think that the economic...

22nd January 2024 · 3 mins read

India Economics Weekly

Russian oil is not flowing so smoothly anymore

Increasing enforcement of the G7’s price cap on Russian oil could force India to buy crude from elsewhere at higher prices, but we doubt this will deal a major blow to the external position. Meanwhile...

19th January 2024 · 3 mins read

China Economics Weekly

Tech sector doing better, births may rise in 2024

After years of being buffeted by trade tensions and a domestic regulatory crackdown, China’s tech sector has finally regained a bit of momentum recently. And although China’s population will shrink...

19th January 2024 · 5 mins read

Emerging Europe Economics Update

Five key themes from Euromoney's CEE forum

The fading energy crisis and the falls in inflation and interest rates generated a more positive mood about the economic outlook at Euromoney’s Central and Eastern European (CEE) forum in Vienna this...

18th January 2024 · 5 mins read

Global Inflation Watch

Will the last mile be the hardest?

The easiest wins in the disinflation battle are behind us now that base effects from the previous surge in energy prices have run their course. Indeed, we expect energy effects to lift inflation in...

18th January 2024 · 16 mins read

Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly

Egypt’s crisis worsening, Saudi-BRICS membership

The past week brought further evidence that strains in Egypt’s balance of payments are ratcheting up, underscoring the need to get the mooted enhanced IMF deal over the line. Elsewhere, the statement...

18th January 2024 · 6 mins read

Emerging Markets Economics Update

Emerging Markets Capital Flows Monitor (Jan. 2024)

Capital inflows into EM bond and equity markets have eased off a little recently, but they are still running around their highest level in over three years. And taken together with the narrowing of...

18th January 2024 · 2 mins read

Africa Rapid Response

South Africa Activity Data (Nov.)

November’s activity data for South Africa show that while economic headwinds are easing, growth is still very soft. Still, less electricity outages and restrictive fiscal policy should allow for a...

18th January 2024 · 2 mins read

China Rapid Response

GDP (Q4) & Activity (Dec.)

China’s economy lost momentum in Q4 according to the official GDP figures. But we suspect that’s because they failed to acknowledge the full extent of the weakness earlier in the year.

17th January 2024 · 2 mins read

Emerging Markets Economics Update

EM sovereign debt distress easing, but not over

The incidence of sovereign debt distress has fallen sharply across the emerging world in the last few months, but that doesn’t rule out the possibility of default in a handful of EMs. Tunisia looks...

16th January 2024 · 3 mins read

Middle East & North Africa Economics Update

Revisiting Dubai’s GRE debts

We have long highlighted the risk in Dubai’s corporate sector and the large debts that government-related entities (GREs) have accrued. This Update provides our latest estimates of these debts. The...

16th January 2024 · 6 mins read

Africa Economics Update

Kenya better placed to avoid default, for now

One of the big questions in Kenya in 2024 is whether the government can meet a $2bn Eurobond repayment due in the middle of the year. An improving balance of payments position, alongside an enhanced...

16th January 2024 · 5 mins read

Africa Rapid Response

Nigeria Consumer Prices (Dec.)

Nigeria’s headline inflation rate rose again to 28.9% y/y in December, as a weak naira continues to push up prices. Aggressive interest rate hikes are long overdue in order to bring inflation under...

15th January 2024 · 2 mins read

Middle East & North Africa Rapid Response

Saudi Arabia Consumer Prices (Dec. 23)

Saudi Arabia’s headline inflation rate slowed from 1.7% y/y in November to 1.5% y/y in December, the weakest pace recorded since January 2022. And we expect inflation to continue to ease at the start...

15th January 2024 · 2 mins read

China Rapid Response

Policy Rates (Jan.)

Despite a cut being widely expected, the MLF was again kept unchanged today – for a fifth straight month. The main factor holding the PBOC back was probably lingering concerns about the renminbi. This...

15th January 2024 · 3 mins read