India Economics Weekly What to expect from the Interim Budget As it is a general election year, there will be at least some temptation from within the ruling BJP to announce big fiscal giveaways in the Interim Budget for FY24/25 next week. But following the BJP... 26th January 2024 · 4 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Focus Is Turkey’s policy U-turn the real deal? Turkey’s policy U-turn underway since the election last year has been relatively encouraging so far and policymakers’ commitment to orthodoxy has given us reason for optimism. While the scale of the... 25th January 2024 · 20 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Egypt and the IMF, Red Sea disruptions and the Gulf IMF officials have been in Egypt this week to discuss a new financing package and, while no news has emerged yet, the accelerating depreciation of the pound on the parallel market underscores Egypt’s... 25th January 2024 · 7 mins read
Africa Rapid Response South Africa Interest Rate Announcement The South African Reserve Bank resisted responding to last month’s fall in inflation with an interest rate cut, leaving the repo rate unchanged at 8.25% today. The MPC’s message was little changed... 25th January 2024 · 2 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Inflation threat from EM labour markets easing Wage growth remains soft across much of Emerging Asia, supporting our view that the region’s central banks will start monetary easing cycles sooner than most expect. Wage pressures have softened... 25th January 2024 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Turkey Interest Rate Announcement (Jan.) The 250bp interest rate hike from Turkey’s central bank (CBRT) today, to 45.00%, marks an end to its tightening cycle. Encouragingly, the communications were relatively hawkish and suggest that... 25th January 2024 · 2 mins read
Latin America Economics Focus Brazil: five questions for 2024 Brazil’s economy and financial markets have provided a positive surprise over the past 12-18 months. This Focus answers five key questions that will determine whether 2024 will be chalked up as a... 24th January 2024 · 15 mins read
Africa Economics Update Lessons from Africa’s sovereign debt restructurings Ghana’s relatively quick progress in debt restructuring talks with creditors contrasts with the slow experiences of Ethiopia and Zambia. Much of this can be explained by the China’s role in... 24th January 2024 · 4 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Is Tunisia looking down the barrel of a sovereign default? Tunisia’s government faces a large debt repayment next month and, while it should be able to make that, there is still a lot of debt coming due in the next twelve months. President Saied’s... 24th January 2024 · 3 mins read
Latin America Rapid Response Mexico Bi-Weekly CPI (Jan.) The jump in Mexico’s inflation to a higher-than-expected 4.9% y/y in the first half of January was entirely due to a particularly sharp rise in agricultural goods inflation. But it probably means the... 24th January 2024 · 2 mins read
China Economics Update PBOC still only easing with caution The People’s Bank’s policy announcements today will provide only a small boost for China’s economy. Meaningful improvements in household or corporate borrowing would require substantial rate cuts or a... 24th January 2024 · 4 mins read
Africa Rapid Response South Africa Consumer Prices (Dec.) South Africa’s headline inflation rate fell back further to 5.1% y/y in December but this is unlikely to be enough to convince the Reserve Bank to start an easing cycle tomorrow. 24th January 2024 · 2 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack Emerging Markets Chart Pack (January 2024) EM GDP growth weakened over the second half of 2023, and we expect growth to remain subdued this year. Some EMs that underperformed last year will see modest recoveries, but many of the economies... 23rd January 2024 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Could Saudi live with a sustained fall in oil prices? Saudi Arabia’s government returned to running budget deficits last year and is likely to continue doing so. But these should be easily financed. Oil prices would probably have to fall sharply, to... 23rd January 2024 · 5 mins read
China Activity Monitor CAP: Recovery continuing at the end of 2023 Our China Activity Proxy (CAP) suggests that economic output ended 2023 above the high it reached before growth spluttered in the middle of the year. With policy support still flowing, a further... 23rd January 2024 · 3 mins read
India Economics Focus India’s economy in the era of AI India is certain to become the world’s third-largest economy within the next decade, but the emergence of generative artificial intelligence (AI) will hamper rather than help its rise. This is in... 23rd January 2024 · 9 mins read
