Emerging Europe Rapid Response Poland Interest Rate Announcement (Dec.) The National Bank of Poland (NBP) left interest rates on hold as expected today, and we think the easing cycle will remain on pause until the end of Q1. With the economy recovering and the... 6th December 2023 · 2 mins read
China Economic Outlook Stronger start, weaker end to 2024 China’s economy has regained some strength recently. We expect this to continue into 2024, on the back of support from fiscal policy and a further pick-up in household spending. But with property... 6th December 2023 · 18 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Emerging Markets Capital Flows Monitor (Dec. 2023) Inflows into EM bond and equity markets have picked up over the past month, particularly in Turkey where optimism around the policy U-turn seems to be building. Capital flows into EMs may be bumpy in... 5th December 2023 · 4 mins read
India Economic Outlook Solid growth in run-up to election India’s economy has grown at a healthy clip over recent quarters and, with the help of government spending, we think it will continue to hold up well ahead of next year’s general election. Given also... 5th December 2023 · 19 mins read
Latin America Rapid Response Brazil GDP (Q3 2023) Brazil’s economy fared better than expected in Q3, expanding by 0.1% q/q, but the bigger picture is that the strong growth seen in the first half of the year has come to an end. 5th December 2023 · 2 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Rapid Response November PMIs The batch of PMIs for November from the Middle East and North Africa showed that non-hydrocarbon private sectors in the Gulf have sustained strong momentum at the end of 2023. Elsewhere, while there... 5th December 2023 · 3 mins read
Africa Rapid Response South Africa GDP (Q3) South Africa’s economy contracted by 0.2% q/q in Q3 and more timely indicators point to a weak end to 2023, not helped by recent disruptions to the port and freight network. But there are reasons to... 5th December 2023 · 3 mins read
India Economics Update Three key points on the state election results The latest batch of state election results suggests that support for Prime Minister Modi’s BJP remains firmly intact and that it is clearly in the driving seat to secure another victory in next year’s... 4th December 2023 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Turkey Consumer Prices (Nov.) The small rise in Turkish inflation to 62.0% y/y in November adds to evidence that inflation pressures in the economy continue to cool. We think the central bank’s monetary tightening cycle is likely... 4th December 2023 · 2 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EM PMIs edge up, but external demand remains weak The emerging market manufacturing PMIs for November were a mixed bag – although most headline indices edged up, they remained below 50 in over half the countries that we track, largely due to weak... 1st December 2023 · 4 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly CEE inflation won’t follow euro-zone to target in 2024 Investors increased their expectations for interest rate cuts by the ECB after November’s soft euro-zone inflation print this week, but in parts of Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) the latest... 1st December 2023 · 9 mins read
Latin America Rapid Response Brazil Industrial Production (October 2023) The meagre 0.1% m/m expansion in Brazil’s industrial production in October adds to the signs that, after a very strong first half of the year, the economy has slowed sharply. This is likely to... 1st December 2023 · 2 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly S. Africa financial stability risks, Kenya’s housing levy The South African Reserve Bank’s Financial Stability Review out this week shone the spotlight on the risks posed by local banks’ growing holdings of government debt – risks that are only likely to... 1st December 2023 · 6 mins read
China Economics Weekly Fiscal boost, renminbi turnaround Government bond issuance has picked up recently but a sizeable chunk of the proceeds have yet to be spent. Local officials will be under pressure to deploy these funds as soon as possible, which could... 1st December 2023 · 5 mins read
India Economics Weekly Robust Q3 GDP, hard truths at COP28, RBI preview The activity data this week confirm that India’s economy is rude health and we now expect full-year GDP growth of 7.0% in 2023, with only a mild slowdown to 6.3% in 2024. A perennial downside risk to... 1st December 2023 · 4 mins read