China Rapid Response

Hong Kong GDP (Q4 Preliminary)

Hong Kong’s growth picked up only marginally in Q4, underperforming most expectations. And although we foresee some further upside as foreign visitors and workers continue to return, we think the...

31st January 2024 · 2 mins read

China Rapid Response

PMIs (Jan.)

There were some gains in economic momentum at the start of 2024, at least judging by the modest rise in the PMIs. Admittedly, the survey readings are still depressed by historic standards, but this...

31st January 2024 · 3 mins read

Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack

Middle East and North Africa Chart Pack (Jan. 2024)

Our Middle East and North Africa Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. Economic growth in the Middle East and North Africa will strengthen a little...

30th January 2024 · 1 min read

Emerging Europe Rapid Response

Hungary Interest Rate Announcement (Jan.)

The Hungarian central bank’s communications following its meeting today confirm that the decision not to accelerate the pace of its easing cycle was due to the recent ratcheting up of tensions between...

30th January 2024 · 2 mins read

Latin America Rapid Response

Mexico GDP (Q4 Provisional)

The sharper-than-expected slowdown in Mexico’s GDP growth, to just 0.1% q/q in Q4, is likely to be followed by continued sluggish growth over the coming quarters. At the margin, the data increase the...

30th January 2024 · 2 mins read

Middle East & North Africa Economics Update

Will Saudi shift tack on oil policy?

Saudi Arabia has cut oil output significantly over the past year or so but that hasn’t prevented global oil prices from falling. Despite Aramco’s announcement today that it is postponing plans to...

30th January 2024 · 5 mins read

Emerging Europe Rapid Response

Economic Sentiment Indicators (Jan.)

The European Commission's Economic Sentiment Indicators for Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) were a mixed bag in January, but our regional measure rose for the fourth consecutive month and points to...

30th January 2024 · 2 mins read

Emerging Europe Rapid Response

Czech GDP (Q4)

The meagre 0.2% q/q expansion in Czech GDP in Q4 confirms that the economy contracted over 2023 as a whole, and we think that this is likely to be followed by tepid growth this year. We maintain our...

30th January 2024 · 2 mins read

Emerging Markets Economics Update

Which EMs will be next to cut interest rates?

The EM monetary easing cycle began to broaden out late last year. Mexico’s central bank will probably be the next to cut rates later this quarter, and many Asian central banks will join the fray in...

29th January 2024 · 3 mins read

Africa Data Response

Ghana Interest Rate Announcement (Jan.)

The Bank of Ghana kicked off its easing cycle with a 100bp cut, to 29.00%, today and an improving balance of payments position alongside further falls in inflation mean that more cuts are on the cards...

29th January 2024 · 2 mins read

Emerging Europe Economics Update

Hungary-EU tensions ratchet up with EU funds at stake

Were the EU to block Hungary’s access to funds (if it vetoes financing for Ukraine at this week’s summit), as reports on Sunday suggested, this would probably have a smaller direct impact on Hungary’s...

29th January 2024 · 4 mins read

Africa Economics Weekly

SA rates takeaways, Côte d’Ivoire Eurobonds

The South African MPC’s concerns expressed at this week’s meeting about an inflation resurgence look overdone, but with fiscal risks high ahead of the election, officials will continue to tread...

26th January 2024 · 5 mins read

Emerging Europe Economics Weekly

Hungary’s interest rate proposal, last CBRT rate hike

The proposal by the Hungarian government this week to change the reference rate used to price bank loans has sparked a lot of criticism and risks undermining the central bank’s independence. We think...

26th January 2024 · 9 mins read

China Economics Weekly

Stimulus only firing on one cylinder

Large-scale liquidity injections have had little impact on economic activity recently and the upcoming RRR cut is likely to be no different. Quantitative monetary policy tools are ineffectual in an...

26th January 2024 · 7 mins read

Latin America Rapid Response

Brazil IPCA-15 (January 2024)

The slightly larger-than-expected decline in Brazilian inflation in the first half of this month, to 4.5% y/y, seals the deal on another 50bp cut in the Selic rate (to 11.25%) at next week’s central...

26th January 2024 · 2 mins read