China Economics Weekly Xi wants faster growth in total factor productivity President Xi this week made clear that faster productivity gains are central to his “high-quality development” agenda. Focusing on raising productivity is a good idea in principle but making it a... 2nd February 2024 · 6 mins read
India Economics Weekly Fiscal and monetary restraint The Finance Ministry resisted the temptation to ramp up pre-election giveaways in the Interim Budget for FY24/25, and we think the RBI will show similar restraint next week by maintaining its hawkish... 2nd February 2024 · 3 mins read
RBI Watch Policy pivot still several months away We agree with consensus expectations that the MPC will keep policy unchanged at the conclusion of its meeting on Thursday 8 th February. Further ahead, the strength of the economy and still-elevated... 2nd February 2024 · 6 mins read
Event EM Drop-In: Easing cycles, debt risks, and the outlook for EM bonds 1707404400 While developed market central banks pontificate over the timing of rate cuts, the loosening cycle among emerging markets is well underway and gathering pace.
Emerging Markets Economics Update EM manufacturing isn't out of the woods While the emerging market manufacturing PMIs for January generally edged up, we think that weak global demand will weigh on EM industry over the coming months. The good new is that price pressures... 1st February 2024 · 3 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Aramco’s plans, Jordan and regional conflict, Tunisia’s crisis Saudi Arabia’s government this week directed the state oil giant Aramco to suspend plans to raise oil production capacity, but this won’t necessarily stop Aramco from ramping up actual output in the... 1st February 2024 · 8 mins read
Latin America Economics Update What next for Mexican inflation and Banxico? Inflation in Mexico has dropped back over the past year but rapid wage growth continues to fuel strong underlying price pressures and means that the headline rate won’t return to Banxico’s 2-4%... 1st February 2024 · 4 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Lat Am easing cycles show increasing divergence While Latin American central banks seemed to act in unison when raising interest rates (albeit with Brazil a bit ahead of the pack), the raft of interest rate decisions in the region yesterday... 1st February 2024 · 4 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Manufacturing PMIs (Jan.) The manufacturing PMIs out of Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) for January remained soft and haven’t changed the broad picture that the region’s industrial sectors continue to struggle. Turkey’s PMI... 1st February 2024 · 2 mins read
Africa Data Response South Africa Manufacturing PMI (Jan.) South Africa’s manufacturing PMI recorded a sharp drop in January as logistics problems and weak demand weighed on activity. We still expect growth to pick up over the course of this year, but this... 1st February 2024 · 2 mins read
India Economics Update Finance Ministry shows restraint as election looms Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman appears to have successfully demonstrated a long-term commitment of reining in the fiscal deficit in the Interim Budget announcement for FY24/25. There is always a... 1st February 2024 · 3 mins read
India Rapid Response Manufacturing PMI (Jan.) The final manufacturing PMI reading for January suggests that activity got off to a strong start this year. Looking ahead, while manufacturing output is likely to moderate in the coming months, it... 1st February 2024 · 2 mins read
Africa Chart Pack Africa Chart Pack (Jan. 2024) Economic growth in Sub-Saharan Africa is set to strengthen over 2024-25 as the external backdrop turns more favourable and, in some places, the drag from high inflation eases. But this boost will be... 31st January 2024 · 0 mins read
China Chart Pack China Chart Pack (Jan. 2024) China’s economy has regained some strength recently. We expect this to continue over the coming months, on the back of support from fiscal policy and a further pick-up in household spending. But with... 31st January 2024 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Emerging Europe Chart Pack (Jan. 2024) Our Emerging Europe Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. Inflation continued to fall sharply across Central and Eastern Europe at the end of 2023... 31st January 2024 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Poland Annual GDP (2023) The weaker-than-expected 0.2% expansion in Polish GDP over 2023 as a whole suggests that the economy struggled at the end of the year. We think this weakness will prove temporary and that activity... 31st January 2024 · 2 mins read
