China Rapid Response Consumer & Producer Prices (Jan.) CPI fell deeper into deflationary territory last month. But this was largely due to the usual volatility in food and tourism prices around Chinese New Year. We think consumer price inflation will... 8th February 2024 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Russia GDP (2023) & Activity Data (Dec.) Russia’s economy expanded by 3.6% over 2023 as a whole, marking a sharp rebound from a contraction of just 1.2% in 2022 (revised from 2.1%). The activity data for December suggest that the economy... 7th February 2024 · 2 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Saudi Arabia: downturn over, but a slow recovery in 2024 Saudi Arabia’s economy contracted by 0.9% over the course of 2023 on the back of the Kingdom’s oil output cuts. But the recession ended in Q4 and we think that a gradual recovery will ensue over 2024... 7th February 2024 · 3 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Brazil: a return to fiscal malaise The large rise in the Brazilian government’s budget deficit, to 8.9% of GDP, over 2023 as a whole should partially reverse this year. But the key point is that the underlying sovereign debt dynamics... 7th February 2024 · 5 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Poland Interest Rate Announcement (Feb.) The National Bank of Poland (NBP) left interest rates on hold again today, at 5.75%, and we think that an interest rate cut at the next meeting in March looks finely balanced. Our current assumption... 7th February 2024 · 2 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Frontier sovereign debt distress still high While the overall incidence of sovereign debt distress in the emerging world has fallen back since last year, sovereign debt distress in frontier markets hasn’t. And, if anything, things have taken a... 7th February 2024 · 3 mins read
India Economics Focus A helping hand from the diaspora Remittances are often an underappreciated source of foreign currency for India. While growth in remittances will slow in the next few years, they should remain an important source of external funding... 7th February 2024 · 9 mins read
Africa Rapid Response Kenya Interest Rate Announcement (Feb.) The Central Bank of Kenya delivered a surprise 50bp interest rate hike today, to 13.0%, suggesting that the MPC’s inflation fears are outweighing signs that exchange rate pressures are easing. With... 6th February 2024 · 2 mins read
Latin America Economics Focus Will Chile seize the green transition opportunity? Chile is frequently identified as one of the main beneficiaries of global efforts to put economies on a greener footing, but we doubt that the country will reap the full benefits of this trend. Chile... 6th February 2024 · 21 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update PMIs: Gulf a bright spot, Israel-Hamas war weighs on Egypt January’s batch of PMIs showed that activity across non-hydrocarbon sectors in the Gulf eased a touch at the start of the year, but activity remains robust and will support the broader economic... 5th February 2024 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Turkey Consumer Prices (Jan.) Headline inflation edged up slightly in Turkey to 64.9% y/y in January, and the m/m figure – a 6.7% increase on the back of a large minimum wage hike – looked even worse. The figures highlight the... 5th February 2024 · 2 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly Naira plunges, SA budget, Uganda/Kenya late cuts The devaluation of the naira this week may be a sign that there’s fresh impetus to Nigeria’s policy shift, which had been stalling. A key test will come at the (long-overdue) central bank meeting... 2nd February 2024 · 6 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Milei’s setback, Venezuela’s sanction, new rate forecasts Argentine President Milei's ambitious stabilisation plan suffered a major blow in the past week and flipping the primary balance back into surplus is now looking increasingly difficult. Elsewhere... 2nd February 2024 · 7 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Hungary-EU tensions cool, Czech currency valuation Hungary dropped its veto against the EU's financing package for Ukraine on Thursday, ending a week of uncertainty that added downside risks to the currency. Provided the easing in tensions is... 2nd February 2024 · 8 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Egypt hikes interest rates as new IMF deal edges closer Events in Egypt yesterday, including a large interest rate hike and comments that a disbursement of more IMF funding is close, suggest that a shift towards more orthodox policy is nearing. If a new... 2nd February 2024 · 4 mins read
