Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Czech euro adoption, Glapinski turns hawkish The Czech government’s debate on adopting the euro took another step forward this week, although we think that the potential benefits of joining the single currency union would be outweighed by the... 9th February 2024 · 9 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Copom’s challenges, Amlo’s amendments This week’s release of the minutes to the latest Copom meeting, January CPI figures and December budget data support our view that Brazil’s central bank will lower interest rates by less than most... 9th February 2024 · 6 mins read
Asset Allocation Update The future may be brighter for EM equities We think that EM equities will deliver better returns in the next couple of years than they have since the pandemic. Returns are likely to be lower than those we expect from US equities but similar to... 9th February 2024 · 4 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Focus CEE: rapid labour cost growth eroding competitiveness The surge in labour costs across Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) in recent years has led to a sharp loss of competitiveness and raised concern about the impact on the region. We remain relatively... 9th February 2024 · 19 mins read
India Economics Weekly Paytm fallout, RBI unmoved, new Inflation Dashboard The RBI left rates on hold as expected this week, but much of the discussion at the press conference was on its clamp down on the activities of Paytm Payments Bank. We don’t think this is a major... 9th February 2024 · 5 mins read
China Rapid Response Bank Lending & Broad Credit (Jan) There was the usual seasonal surge in net credit in China in January that took new bank lending to a record high. The underlying story is less positive, with loan demand little changed and broader... 9th February 2024 · 2 mins read
Latin America Rapid Response Mexico Interest Rate Announcement (Feb.) Mexico’s central bank left interest rates unchanged at 11.25% again today but the accompanying statement further opened the door to the start of an easing cycle, probably at the next meeting in March... 8th February 2024 · 2 mins read
Capital Daily We doubt a delay to Fed rate cuts spells higher EM yields We expect government bond yields in emerging market (EM) economies to fall over the remainder of the year, helped by a broadening easing cycle and falling Treasury yields. 8th February 2024 · 4 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Bahrain dollar bond issuance, Egypt softening the blow Bahrain became the latest EM dollar bond issuer this week, and the $2bn raised will help it to meet large upcoming debt repayments. But officials still need to tighten fiscal policy over the coming... 8th February 2024 · 7 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Czech Interest Rate Announcement (Feb.) The Czech National Bank accelerated the pace of its monetary easing cycle today with a 50bp interest rate cut, to 6.25%, and the post-meeting communications support our view that an even larger... 8th February 2024 · 2 mins read
China Economics Weekly Year of the Dragon: limited relief from economic woes The upcoming Year of the Dragon will bring some improvements to China’s economy, including an uptick in births, increased fiscal support and a further normalisation in consumer behavior. But with the... 8th February 2024 · 7 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Rapid Response Egypt Consumer Prices (Jan. 2024) Egypt’s headline inflation rate slowed for a fourth consecutive month, easing from 33.6% y/y in December to 29.9% y/y in January. We think inflation will continue to slow this year, but a looming... 8th February 2024 · 2 mins read
Latin America Rapid Response Mexico & Brazil Consumer Prices (Jan. 2024) The jump in Mexico’s headline inflation rate to 4.9% in January means Banxico won’t feel comfortable enough yet to start an easing cycle at the Board meeting later today. Elsewhere, the further fall... 8th February 2024 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Turkey Inflation Report Briefing (Feb.) The communications from new Turkish central bank governor Karahan at today’s Inflation Report briefing will have helped to reassure investors that the change at the helm of the central bank won’t lead... 8th February 2024 · 2 mins read
India Economics Update RBI not ready to pivot yet The RBI kept the repo rate on hold at 6.50% today as expected and continued to strike a hawkish tone. With the economy holding up well and inflation likely to remain above the 4% target for a few more... 8th February 2024 · 3 mins read
India Rapid Response RBI Policy Announcement (Feb.) The RBI kept the repo rate on hold at 6.50% today as expected and continued to strike a hawkish tone. With the economy holding up well and inflation to remain above the 4% target for a few more months... 8th February 2024 · 2 mins read
