Emerging Europe Economics Weekly

Poland’s retail sales shocker, BRICS and the dollar

The substantial drop in Polish retail sales in September has been interpreted by some analysts as evidence that the engine of the economy is beginning to fail, but we think that these fears are...

25th October 2024 · 7 mins read

Africa Economics Weekly

Nigeria Shell oil sale, SARB 25bp or 50bp cut next?

The Nigerian authorities rejection of Shell’s sale of its onshore oil business marked the latest attempt by a multinational to divest from Nigeria – and the prospect of lower foreign investment makes...

25th October 2024 · 5 mins read

Emerging Europe Rapid Response

Russia Interest Rate Announcement (Oct.)

The decision by the Russian central bank to hike its policy rate by a larger-than-expected 200bp today, to 21.00%, is evidence that – despite President Putin’s efforts at this week’s BRICS summit to...

25th October 2024 · 2 mins read

China Economics Weekly

Date set for fiscal reveal, stock frenzy boosting GDP

The details of a widely anticipated fiscal stimulus package are expected to be revealed at the NPC Standing Committee’s next meeting, which has just been scheduled for 4th to 8th November. This...

25th October 2024 · 7 mins read

Global Inflation Watch

2% core inflation by mid-2025 across DMs

With goods inflation vanquished, the last leg of disinflation in advanced economies must come from falling services inflation. After plateauing at the start of the year, services inflation has fallen...

24th October 2024 · 17 mins read

Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack

Emerging Markets Chart Pack (October 2024)

EM GDP growth picked up in Q3, but we expect growth to slow over the coming quarters - despite the recent stimulus announcements in China. The threat of more protectionist trade policy in the US poses...

24th October 2024 · 1 min read

Event

Global Drop-In: Is inflation still a threat?

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Renewed jitters in bond markets in part reflect a nagging sense that inflation isn’t whipped.

Emerging Markets Economics Update

What would Trump mean for EM monetary policy?

A victory for Donald Trump in the US election would probably result in higher US Treasury yields and a stronger dollar. That’s an environment in which central banks in EMs with strained balance sheets...

24th October 2024 · 3 mins read

Latin America Economics Update

Mexico and Trump’s vehicle tariff threat

Recent threats by Donald Trump to impose tariffs on Mexico’s vehicle sector could just be pre-election bluster or an attempt to get concessions from Mexico. But if implemented, they would deal a big...

23rd October 2024 · 6 mins read

Africa Rapid Response

South Africa Consumer Prices (Sep. '24)

The drop in South Africa’s headline inflation rate, to 3.8% y/y, in September, means that the SARB will almost certainly continue its easing cycle. The chances of a 50bp cut at its the next meeting...

23rd October 2024 · 2 mins read

Climate Economics Update

EU tariffs still not weighing on China's EV exports

Following a record high in August, our proprietary measure of China’s green export volumes edged down in September. Meanwhile, China’s exports of EVs to Europe surged despite the recent EU tariffs...

22nd October 2024 · 2 mins read

Emerging Europe Rapid Response

Hungary Interest Rate Announcement (Oct.)

The Hungarian central bank acknowledged the possibility that interest rates could be left on hold for an “extended period” after it paused its easing cycle today. We maintain our forecast that the...

22nd October 2024 · 2 mins read

Emerging Europe Rapid Response

Poland Activity Data (Sep.)

The much weaker-than-expected Polish retail sales data for September suggest that the economy slowed more than we had been expecting in Q3. Even so, we think that this weakness was probably caused by...

22nd October 2024 · 2 mins read

Emerging Europe Economics Focus

CEE: rapid wage growth to keep fuelling inflation

The persistent strength of wage growth in Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) reflects continued tightness in labour markets and lingering effects from the 2022-23 inflation shock. While the latter...

21st October 2024 · 15 mins read

Capital Daily

Assessing the relative prospects for EM equities

The recent outperformance of emerging market equities, relative to their developed market peers, has almost entirely reversed in October and we think this may be a sign of things to come.

21st October 2024 · 5 mins read