Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Saudi public finances and fiscal outlook, Egypt-IMF latest Figures published this week confirmed that Saudi Arabia ran a budget deficit over 2023 and we expect another deficit this year. While the government shouldn’t struggle to finance this, if oil prices... 15th February 2024 · 6 mins read
Africa Economics Update Can the SARB help South Africa’s public finances? South Africa’s fiscal strains have seen the government explore tapping revaluation gains on the country’s FX reserves held at the SARB. Utilising these funds to pay down the government’s debt would... 15th February 2024 · 5 mins read
Africa Rapid Response Nigeria Consumer Prices (Jan.) Nigeria’s headline inflation rate rose further to 29.9% y/y in January and the latest sharp fall in the naira means that it is likely to reach close to 35% y/y over the coming months. We expect the... 15th February 2024 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Czech Consumer Prices (Jan.) We’d expected a large fall in Czech inflation in January, but the collapse from 6.9% y/y in December to just 2.3% y/y shows that price pressures are dissipating even more quickly than we’d anticipated... 15th February 2024 · 2 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Rapid Response Saudi Arabia Consumer Prices (Jan. 24) Saudi Arabia’s headline inflation rate edged up from a two-year low of 1.5% y/y in December to 1.6% y/y in January, but we expect that inflation will ease again in the coming months and remain low... 15th February 2024 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Russia Consumer Prices (Jan.) The stabilisation in Russian inflation in January, at 7.4% y/y, should provide cover for the central bank to leave its policy rate unchanged at 16.00% at its meeting on Friday, rather than continue... 14th February 2024 · 2 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Emerging Markets Capital Flows Monitor (Feb. 2024) Capital inflows into EM bonds and equities have fallen sharply since January after the Fed pushed back expectations of the timing of rate cuts. The good news is that current account deficits in EMs... 14th February 2024 · 3 mins read
Africa Economics Update West Africa: cocoa prices to offset hit from poor harvest The effects of El Niño will cause cocoa harvests in Côte d’Ivoire and Ghana, which account for more than half of global output, to fall by around 20% this year. But the related surge in cocoa prices... 14th February 2024 · 3 mins read
Africa Economics Update South Africa ended 2023 on a weak note South Africa’s latest hard activity data show that the economy finished last year with a whimper, but we think that easing electricity outages, weaker inflation pressures and less restrictive fiscal... 14th February 2024 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Central & Eastern Europe GDP (Q4 2023) Q4 GDP figures out of Central and Eastern Europe showed that the region ended last year on a weak note, but the outlook for 2024 looks brighter. While soft external demand is likely to remain a drag... 14th February 2024 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Romania Interest Rate Announcement (Feb.) The National Bank of Romania (NBR) left its policy rate on hold at 7.00% again today and, while interest rate cuts are likely to start around mid-year, we think that monetary easing will be less... 13th February 2024 · 2 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Takeaways from the latest EM central bank meetings A key point that stands out from the raft of EM central bank decisions over the past couple of weeks is that policymakers are focussed much more on domestically-generated price pressures than the Fed... 12th February 2024 · 4 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Pemex debt fears back in the spotlight Moody’s downgrade of Pemex at the end of last week reinforces the view we set out last year that the next government in Mexico will prove to be less supportive of the troubled state energy company... 12th February 2024 · 4 mins read
India Rapid Response Consumer Prices (Jan.) In the context of its continued hawkish communications, we doubt that the drop in headline consumer price inflation in January will be enough to convince the RBI to pivot yet. But it is clear that... 12th February 2024 · 2 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly SONA, Kenya buyback, Zambian copper South African President Ramaphosa’s State of the Nation address this week pointed to costly welfare and healthcare expansions ahead of this year’s election. This would make the job of stabilising the... 9th February 2024 · 6 mins read
Capital Daily The “carry trade” in currencies may have run its course “High-carry” emerging market (EM) currencies have not been immune to broad-based dollar strength so far this year, and we think they have further to fall. 9th February 2024 · 5 mins read
