Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Revisiting Dubai’s GRE debts We have long highlighted the risk in Dubai’s corporate sector and the large debts that government-related entities (GREs) have accrued. This Update provides our latest estimates of these debts. The... 16th January 2024 · 6 mins read
Africa Economics Update Kenya better placed to avoid default, for now One of the big questions in Kenya in 2024 is whether the government can meet a $2bn Eurobond repayment due in the middle of the year. An improving balance of payments position, alongside an enhanced... 16th January 2024 · 5 mins read
Africa Rapid Response Nigeria Consumer Prices (Dec.) Nigeria’s headline inflation rate rose again to 28.9% y/y in December, as a weak naira continues to push up prices. Aggressive interest rate hikes are long overdue in order to bring inflation under... 15th January 2024 · 2 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Rapid Response Saudi Arabia Consumer Prices (Dec. 23) Saudi Arabia’s headline inflation rate slowed from 1.7% y/y in November to 1.5% y/y in December, the weakest pace recorded since January 2022. And we expect inflation to continue to ease at the start... 15th January 2024 · 2 mins read
China Rapid Response Policy Rates (Jan.) Despite a cut being widely expected, the MLF was again kept unchanged today – for a fifth straight month. The main factor holding the PBOC back was probably lingering concerns about the renminbi. This... 15th January 2024 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Russia Consumer Prices (Dec.) The small fall in Russian inflation to 7.4% y/y in December is likely to be temporary, and we still think that the central bank’s tightening cycle has further to run. We expect a 100bp rate hike (to... 12th January 2024 · 2 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly South Africa IRP, Transnet cash, World Bank optimism South Africa presented its draft energy plan, which brought bad news to those concerned about loadshedding and the commitment to reducing greenhouse gas emissions. Meanwhile, the country’s finance... 12th January 2024 · 6 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Soft CPI data point to faster rate cuts in parts of CEE The softer-than-expected December inflation data released across Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) this week suggest that further interest rate cuts will be delivered across the region over the coming... 12th January 2024 · 5 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Romania Interest Rate Announcement (Jan.) The National Bank of Romania (NBR) left its policy rate unchanged at 7.00% today and, although a monetary easing cycle seems to be drawing nearer, we think that interest rates are unlikely to be cut... 12th January 2024 · 2 mins read
India Rapid Response Consumer Prices (Dec.) The rise in headline consumer price inflation to a four-month high in December supports our view that the central bank will be in no rush to loosen policy. We expect rate cuts to materialise in the... 12th January 2024 · 2 mins read
China Economics Weekly Stronger data ahead as PBOC continues to ease The Q4 GDP data due on Wednesday are likely to confirm what we’ve been saying for some time – that the economy was regaining momentum at the end of 2023 thanks to policy support. That recovery is... 12th January 2024 · 7 mins read
China Rapid Response Bank Lending & Broad Credit (Dec.) The rebound in broad credit growth remained on track thanks to a step up in government borrowing. But growth in bank loans undershot expectations, dropping to its lowest level in over two decades... 12th January 2024 · 3 mins read
China Rapid Response Merchandise Trade (Dec.) China’s export values rose y/y at the fastest rate since April. And while export volumes only ticked up slightly, they remain near a record high. We are sceptical that this strength is sustainable... 12th January 2024 · 2 mins read
India Economics Weekly Air pollution threat, FDI outlook, CPI data Air quality levels in India have been the worst on record in recent weeks and the country's reliance on coal suggests that this will remain an economic headwind for a long time to come. That doesn't... 12th January 2024 · 4 mins read
China Rapid Response Consumer & Producer Prices (Dec.) Smaller y/y declines in a food and energy prices meant that both CPI and PPI deflation eased last month, a trend that we think will continue over the coming quarters. But concerns about low inflation... 12th January 2024 · 2 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Egypt’s IMF deal, Saudi’s fiscal position and bond issuance An expansion of Egypt’s IMF deal appears to be edging closer following meetings between its government and the Fund and US Treasury this week. A shift back towards economic orthodoxy, including the... 11th January 2024 · 7 mins read