Africa Economics Update SA: election pressures will challenge austerity plans The fiscal restraint shown by South Africa’s finance minister in today’s Budget was received positively in local financial markets, but the reality is that the government will struggle to meet its... 21st February 2024 · 4 mins read
Event Global Drop-In: Long Run Economic Outlook – What to expect from global growth to 2050 1709218800 An AI productivity boom. A Chinese structural slowdown. Aging workforces.
Africa Data Response South Africa Consumer Prices (Jan.) South Africa’s headline inflation rate picked up to 5.3% y/y in January and the rise in core inflation is likely to spook an already-hawkish SARB, possibly pushing the start of an easing cycle even... 21st February 2024 · 2 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Unpacking this year’s EM bond issuance bonanza EM sovereigns have issued a record amount of FX debt at the start of this year, capitalising on a window created by the decline in US Treasury yields since October. The issuance has been concentrated... 20th February 2024 · 4 mins read
Africa Economics Update Nigeria: fresh naira falls to curb growth Nigeria saw sluggish growth over the second half of last year, and the latest falls in the naira mean inflation is set to rise even further over the coming months, which should prompt the central bank... 20th February 2024 · 3 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Brazil: inflation pressures starting to re-surface Headline inflation in Brazil has declined in recent months, but a deeper dig into the data shows that underlying price pressures are starting to build again. Although another 50bp cut in the Selic... 20th February 2024 · 4 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Israel-Hamas spillovers weigh on non-Gulf economies The main spillover to the global economy, so far, from the Israel-Hamas conflict has been major disruptions to shipping, but there has been a bigger and broader economic impact in the MENA region... 20th February 2024 · 5 mins read
China Rapid Response Policy Rates (Feb.) Today’s 25bp cut to the 5-year LPR is clearly aimed at supporting the housing market. On its own it will not revive new home sales. But coupled with efforts to provide increased credit support to... 20th February 2024 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Israel GDP (Q4 2023) The 19.4% q/q annualised contraction in Israeli GDP in Q4 was much worse than had been expected and highlights the extent of the hit from the Hamas attacks and the war in Gaza. While a recovery looks... 19th February 2024 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Israel’s rating downgrade, Turkey’s external position The decision by Moody's to deliver Israel's first credit rating downgrade in its history late last week is a warning sign to policymakers that the strength of the public finances should not be taken... 16th February 2024 · 8 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Argentine inflation, Pemex’s debt problem Argentina’s President Javier Milei has made tackling rampant inflation – which data out this week showed is now running at over 250% – a key priority, but the historical record in Latin America... 16th February 2024 · 5 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly A look ahead to South Africa’s Budget South Africa’s Finance Minister Enoch Godongwana faces an uphill task in next week’s Budget to convince investors that the government will be able to place the public finances on a sustainable footing... 16th February 2024 · 8 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Russia Interest Rate Announcement (Feb.) Russia’s central bank (CBR) left its policy rate on hold at 16.00% as expected today and we think that inflation pressures will prevent it from cutting interest rates for most of this year. 16th February 2024 · 2 mins read
India Economics Weekly Farmer protests won’t lead to big fiscal giveaways Widescale protests by agriculture workers demanding higher prices for crops have dominated the headlines this week. But the BJP is unlikely to make any big fiscal concessions given that its political... 16th February 2024 · 5 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Czechia to remain one of the sick men of Europe The Czech economy has had the weakest performance of any EU country since the pandemic, and we think that growth will disappoint expectations again in 2024. This will keep inflation contained and put... 16th February 2024 · 5 mins read
Latin America Rapid Response Colombia GDP (Q4 2023) The stagnation in Colombia’s GDP in Q4 confirmed that the economy remained very weak at the end of last year and we think the recovery this year will be slower than most anticipate. At the margin, the... 15th February 2024 · 2 mins read
