Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack

Middle East and North Africa Chart Pack (Feb. 2024)

Our Middle East and North Africa Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. Economic growth in the Middle East and North Africa will strengthen a little...

26th February 2024 · 1 min read

Africa Economics Weekly

South Africa Budget, SARB new MPC member

South Africa’s finance minister recommitted to fiscal restraint in this week’s Budget, but fiscal pressures before and after May’s election are likely to derail the plans. The debt-to-GDP ratio will...

23rd February 2024 · 7 mins read

Emerging Europe Economics Weekly

CEE wage growth still hot, new Russia sanctions

The latest wage data released out of Poland and Hungary this week showed that labour cost pressures have remained very strong in parts of Central and Eastern Europe (CEE). So despite another slew of...

23rd February 2024 · 9 mins read

Latin America Economics Weekly

Venezuelan inflation, Mexico’s slowdown

Inflation and activity figures out of Mexico this week bolster our view that consensus growth forecasts for 2024 look a bit too optimistic and that Banxico will start its monetary easing cycle next...

23rd February 2024 · 6 mins read

China Economics Weekly

New developer financing scheme shows promise

The record 25bp cut to the 5Y Loan Prime Rate, the benchmark for price mortgages, captured the headlines this week. But of greater importance to China's property sector is the new "real estate...

23rd February 2024 · 6 mins read

India Economics Weekly

RBI minutes highlight first signs of dissent

The minutes of the Reserve Bank’s February policy meeting released this week show the first signs of dissent as MPC member Jayanth Varma argued that a cut to the repo rate would be prudent to show...

23rd February 2024 · 4 mins read

China Economics Focus

Trump tariffs: round two would be more damaging

Donald Trump’s previous tariffs did surprisingly little damage to China’s economy, but China may find it harder to shrug off the damage in a rematch. Mr Trump is threatening larger tariff increases if...

23rd February 2024 · 22 mins read

India Chart Pack

India Chart Pack (Feb. 2024)

Our India Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. India’s economy performed exceptionally well last year and the latest data suggest that it has made...

22nd February 2024 · 1 min read

Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly

Tunisia’s unorthodox policy shift, Egypt’s Unified Budget Act

While Tunisia's government managed to avert default this week by meeting a Eurobond repayment, it only did so by draining already low FX reserves. With the new central bank governor set to take...

22nd February 2024 · 6 mins read

Africa Data Response

Nigeria GDP (Q4 2023)

Nigeria’s GDP growth rebounded to 3.5% y/y in Q4 but we doubt that this strength will last. Tighter monetary policy, coming alongside the pernicious effects of further weakness in the naira and...

22nd February 2024 · 2 mins read

Latin America Rapid Response

Mexico Bi-Weekly CPI (Feb.)

The drop back in Mexico’s headline inflation rate to 4.5% y/y in the first half of February leaves Banxico on course to begin an easing cycle at March’s Board meeting. That said, the rise in core...

22nd February 2024 · 2 mins read

Emerging Europe Rapid Response

Turkey Interest Rate Announcement (Feb.)

The hawkish statement accompanying the Turkish central bank’s decision to leave interest rates unchanged at 45.00% today supports our view that a shift to monetary easing remains some way off and we...

22nd February 2024 · 2 mins read

Emerging Europe Rapid Response

Poland Activity Data (Jan.)

Poland’s activity data for January suggest that the reacceleration in wage growth at the start of this year supported domestic demand, while the export-orientated industrial sector struggled. We think...

22nd February 2024 · 2 mins read

India Rapid Response

India Flash Composite PMI (Feb. 2024)

The flash composite PMI reading for February suggests that the economy continues to perform exceptionally well. Looking ahead, while growth in both the manufacturing and services sectors is likely to...

22nd February 2024 · 2 mins read

FX Markets Update

Headwinds to EM FX may persist in the short term

Almost all major emerging market (EM) currencies have fallen against the US dollar so far this year, and we think they will remain under pressure until interest rate expectations in the US shift lower...

21st February 2024 · 4 mins read