China Chart Pack

China Chart Pack (Feb. 2024)

China’s economy has regained some strength recently. We expect this to continue over the coming months, on the back of support from fiscal policy and a further pick-up in household spending. But with...

29th February 2024 · 1 min read

Emerging Europe Rapid Response

Turkey GDP (Q4 2023)

The pick-up in Turkish GDP growth to 1.0% q/q in Q4 was driven by a rebound in private consumption and suggests that aggressive monetary tightening has yet to take the sting out of domestic demand...

29th February 2024 · 2 mins read

Emerging Europe Rapid Response

Russia Activity Data (Feb.)

The latest activity data for January suggest that Russia’s economy maintained solid growth at the start of this year, which supports our forecast for above-potential GDP growth of 3.0% over the course...

28th February 2024 · 1 min read

Emerging Europe Economics Update

Romania needs to reduce its macro imbalances

Romania’s large twin budget and current account deficits remain a key concern. One near-term risk is that fiscal policy stays very loose (or is loosened further), particularly in view of elections...

28th February 2024 · 5 mins read

Africa Chart Pack

Africa Chart Pack (Feb. 2024)

Economic growth in Sub-Saharan Africa is likely to pick up in 2024 as the external backdrop turns more favourable and, in some places, the drag from high inflation fades. Even so, tight fiscal and...

28th February 2024 · 0 mins read

Asia Chart Pack

Emerging Asia Chart Pack (February 2024)

Our Emerging Asia Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. Economic growth in most of Emerging Asia is likely to slow in the near term as weak global...

28th February 2024 · 0 mins read

Emerging Europe Rapid Response

Economic Sentiment Indicators (Feb.)

The European Commission's Economic Sentiment Indicators for Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) generally fell in February, but still point to regional GDP growth strengthening in Q1.

28th February 2024 · 2 mins read

China Economics Update

Supportive fiscal policy will support growth in HK

Today’s budget maintains a supportive fiscal stance, and contains major steps to revitalise the property sector. Spending to attract foreign visitors to Hong Kong and support businesses was stepped up...

28th February 2024 · 3 mins read

Middle East & North Africa Economics Update

Egypt: Ras el Hekma deal paves the way for policy shift

The $35bn deal struck between Egypt’s government and the Abu Dhabi sovereign wealth fund, ADQ, will go some way towards alleviating acute balance of payments strains and pave the way for an enhanced...

27th February 2024 · 4 mins read

Latin America Economics Update

Mexico: Amlo leaving public finances on a slippery slope

Mexico’s President López Obrador’s cloak of fiscal prudence is being shed this year as Morena tries to bolster its support ahead of June’s election. As some of the factors supportive of the public...

27th February 2024 · 3 mins read

Africa Rapid Response

Nigeria Interest Rate Announcement (Feb.)

After a seven-month hiatus, the Central Bank of Nigeria’s (new-look) Monetary Policy Committee stepped up to the plate and hiked interest rates by 400bp, to 22.75%, as it showed greater appetite to...

27th February 2024 · 2 mins read

Emerging Europe Rapid Response

Hungary Interest Rate Announcement (Feb.)

27th February 2024 · 2 mins read

Latin America Rapid Response

Brazil IPCA-15 (February 2024)

The breakdown of Brazil’s February mid-month inflation reading of 4.5% y/y showed that core services inflation remained elevated. And while further 50bp cuts in the Selic rate next month (to 10.75%)...

27th February 2024 · 2 mins read

Africa Economics Update

SA: assessing the implications of a lower inflation target

Talk of the South African Reserve Bank’s inflation target being lowered has reared its head again. In this Update, we answer five key questions on what this could mean for the economy. In the near...

27th February 2024 · 6 mins read

Capital Daily

EM Asian equities’ comeback may be just the start

Equities in Emerging Asia have outperformed those elsewhere in recent weeks, and we think that they’ll keep doing well during the rest of the year.

26th February 2024 · 5 mins read