Emerging Europe Economics Update Hungary-EU tensions ratchet up with EU funds at stake Were the EU to block Hungary’s access to funds (if it vetoes financing for Ukraine at this week’s summit), as reports on Sunday suggested, this would probably have a smaller direct impact on Hungary’s... 29th January 2024 · 4 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly SA rates takeaways, Côte d’Ivoire Eurobonds The South African MPC’s concerns expressed at this week’s meeting about an inflation resurgence look overdone, but with fiscal risks high ahead of the election, officials will continue to tread... 26th January 2024 · 5 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Hungary’s interest rate proposal, last CBRT rate hike The proposal by the Hungarian government this week to change the reference rate used to price bank loans has sparked a lot of criticism and risks undermining the central bank’s independence. We think... 26th January 2024 · 9 mins read
China Economics Weekly Stimulus only firing on one cylinder Large-scale liquidity injections have had little impact on economic activity recently and the upcoming RRR cut is likely to be no different. Quantitative monetary policy tools are ineffectual in an... 26th January 2024 · 7 mins read
Latin America Rapid Response Brazil IPCA-15 (January 2024) The slightly larger-than-expected decline in Brazilian inflation in the first half of this month, to 4.5% y/y, seals the deal on another 50bp cut in the Selic rate (to 11.25%) at next week’s central... 26th January 2024 · 2 mins read
India Economics Weekly What to expect from the Interim Budget As it is a general election year, there will be at least some temptation from within the ruling BJP to announce big fiscal giveaways in the Interim Budget for FY24/25 next week. But following the BJP... 26th January 2024 · 4 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Focus Is Turkey’s policy U-turn the real deal? Turkey’s policy U-turn underway since the election last year has been relatively encouraging so far and policymakers’ commitment to orthodoxy has given us reason for optimism. While the scale of the... 25th January 2024 · 20 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Egypt and the IMF, Red Sea disruptions and the Gulf IMF officials have been in Egypt this week to discuss a new financing package and, while no news has emerged yet, the accelerating depreciation of the pound on the parallel market underscores Egypt’s... 25th January 2024 · 7 mins read
Africa Rapid Response South Africa Interest Rate Announcement The South African Reserve Bank resisted responding to last month’s fall in inflation with an interest rate cut, leaving the repo rate unchanged at 8.25% today. The MPC’s message was little changed... 25th January 2024 · 2 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Inflation threat from EM labour markets easing Wage growth remains soft across much of Emerging Asia, supporting our view that the region’s central banks will start monetary easing cycles sooner than most expect. Wage pressures have softened... 25th January 2024 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Turkey Interest Rate Announcement (Jan.) The 250bp interest rate hike from Turkey’s central bank (CBRT) today, to 45.00%, marks an end to its tightening cycle. Encouragingly, the communications were relatively hawkish and suggest that... 25th January 2024 · 2 mins read
Latin America Economics Focus Brazil: five questions for 2024 Brazil’s economy and financial markets have provided a positive surprise over the past 12-18 months. This Focus answers five key questions that will determine whether 2024 will be chalked up as a... 24th January 2024 · 15 mins read
Africa Economics Update Lessons from Africa’s sovereign debt restructurings Ghana’s relatively quick progress in debt restructuring talks with creditors contrasts with the slow experiences of Ethiopia and Zambia. Much of this can be explained by the China’s role in... 24th January 2024 · 4 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Is Tunisia looking down the barrel of a sovereign default? Tunisia’s government faces a large debt repayment next month and, while it should be able to make that, there is still a lot of debt coming due in the next twelve months. President Saied’s... 24th January 2024 · 3 mins read
Latin America Rapid Response Mexico Bi-Weekly CPI (Jan.) The jump in Mexico’s inflation to a higher-than-expected 4.9% y/y in the first half of January was entirely due to a particularly sharp rise in agricultural goods inflation. But it probably means the... 24th January 2024 · 2 mins read
China Economics Update PBOC still only easing with caution The People’s Bank’s policy announcements today will provide only a small boost for China’s economy. Meaningful improvements in household or corporate borrowing would require substantial rate cuts or a... 24th January 2024 · 4 mins read