Emerging Europe Rapid Response Turkey Consumer Prices (Feb.) The stronger-than-expected rise in Turkish inflation to 67.1% y/y in February adds to our concerns given that it comes on the back of a large increase in inflation in January and the strength of... 4th March 2024 · 2 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update PMIs paint a mixed picture for EM industry The pick-up in the EM manufacturing PMI last month suggests that EM industry continued to strengthen in Q1. But while manufacturers have benefitted from strong demand in some economies (such as India... 1st March 2024 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Is Turkey’s economy getting the medicine it needs? The unexpected re-acceleration in Turkish GDP growth in Q4 challenges the view that aggressive monetary tightening delivered over the second half of last year is rebalancing the economy. If inflation... 1st March 2024 · 8 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly Nigeria rate hike, Kenya inflation, Zambia debt deal The Nigerian central bank’s 400bp interest rate hike should help provide respite to the naira and help to curb inflation. But Nigeria will need to shift away from interventionist fiscal and FX short... 1st March 2024 · 7 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Mexico’s election campaign, Brazil’s G20 damp squib Campaigning for Mexico’s election on 2nd June officially kicks off today. The presidential front-runner, Claudia Sheinbaum, will probably continue the social policies of her predecessor but is likely... 1st March 2024 · 7 mins read
China Economics Weekly What to watch at the National People’s Congress The annual meeting of China’s parliament will open on Tuesday with a panoply of speeches and reports. Here’s what to focus on. 1st March 2024 · 6 mins read
Asia Economics Weekly Korea: President Yoon’s rise in popularity boosts reform hopes President Yoon Suk-yeol has seen a rebound in his popularity in recent weeks, helped in part by the strong stance he has taken against the country’s striking junior doctors. The improvement in the... 1st March 2024 · 6 mins read
Latin America Rapid Response Brazil GDP (Q4 2023) The stagnation in Brazil’s GDP in Q4 and the decline in household consumption confirmed that the economy lost momentum sharply and, while we expect a pick-up in growth in the coming quarters, we’re... 1st March 2024 · 2 mins read
India Economics Weekly Shifting consumption patterns, world-beating growth The much-awaited Household Consumption Expenditure Survey for 2022-23 showed a shift in consumption patterns since the previous survey over a decade ago, underscoring the need to re-weight India’s CPI... 1st March 2024 · 3 mins read
Africa Rapid Response South Africa Manufacturing PMI (Feb.) Although South Africa’s manufacturing PMI jumped in February, the sector appears to have made a soft start to the year. We still expect growth to pick up over the rest of this year as loadshedding... 1st March 2024 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Manufacturing PMIs (Feb.) The manufacturing PMIs out of Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) generally ticked up last month, but still suggest that industrial sectors remained weak. In contrast, the increases in the PMIs in Turkey... 1st March 2024 · 2 mins read
Asia Economics Update Manufacturing PMIs & Korean trade The February PMIs for economies in Emerging Asia edged down last month and were mostly inside contractionary territory. The outlook for manufacturing in the region remains poor in the near term, with... 1st March 2024 · 2 mins read
China Rapid Response China PMIs (Feb. 2024) The PMIs are consistent with activity holding steady in February, at least on paper. Although the survey readings remain below historical averages, this is likely distorted by sentiment effects --... 1st March 2024 · 2 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack Emerging Markets Chart Pack (February 2024) Aggregate EM growth softened towards the end of last year and we think it will remain weak in 2024. But there will be divergence at the country level with growth slowing in those economies that... 29th February 2024 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Emerging Europe Chart Pack (Feb. 2024) Our Emerging Europe Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. Economies in Central and Eastern Europe ended 2023 on a weak note, but the outlook for... 29th February 2024 · 1 min read
India Rapid Response India GDP (Q4 2023) The GDP data for Q4 confirm that India’s economy ended last year with a bang. Looking ahead, we expect economic activity to moderate over the coming quarters but it should still remain exceptionally... 29th February 2024 · 2 mins read
