Emerging Markets Economics Update Judging the fiscal risks from upcoming EM elections This year is a particularly busy one for elections in the emerging world, and these votes raise the risk of fiscal giveaways that worsen public debt dynamics. We think the risks are greatest in... 7th March 2024 · 3 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Egypt’s Super Wednesday pulls it back from the brink Egypt finally made the long-awaited shift back toward economic orthodoxy on Wednesday with the pound being devalued, interest rates hiked aggressively, and a new and enhanced IMF deal agreed. There... 7th March 2024 · 8 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Focus Russia: what to watch under Putin 5.0 The outcome of Russia’s presidential election taking place over 15-17 th March is not in doubt: Putin is all but certain to secure a fifth term until 2030. But the election still has significance... 7th March 2024 · 21 mins read
Latin America Rapid Response Mexico Consumer Prices (Feb. 2024) The drop back in Mexico’s headline inflation rate to 4.4% y/y in February, alongside the weakness of the latest activity data, leaves Banxico on course to cut interest rates at its next Board meeting... 7th March 2024 · 2 mins read
China Rapid Response China Merchandise Trade (Jan. & Feb. 2024) China’s export values rose y/y at the fastest rate since May, with export volumes reaching a record high. We doubt the sustainability of this strength, however, since exporters now have more limited... 7th March 2024 · 2 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Egypt’s orthodox policy shift back underway with IMF The announcement of an agreement over a new IMF package for Egypt, coming on the back of the rate hike and devaluation earlier today, represents a shift towards more orthodox policymaking. While it is... 6th March 2024 · 4 mins read
Event EM Drop-In: Will Egypt's reforms fix the economic crisis? 1709722800 The Egyptian central bank has announced steps to tackle its economic crisis, including a large devaluation and a bumper interest rate hike. But will it be enough?
China Economics Focus Property construction correction has barely begun The drag from the unavoidable structural decline in China’s property sector has only just begun. Property sales and project starts have collapsed. But property construction activity has retreated only... 6th March 2024 · 14 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Rapid Response Egypt Interest Rate Hike & Devaluation The announcement minutes ago from the Central Bank of Egypt that it has devalued the pound and hiked interest rates by a bumper 600bp, to 27.25%, shows that policymakers are committed to the turn back... 6th March 2024 · 2 mins read
China Economics Focus China’s economic roadmap for 2024 The policy agenda laid out at the National People’s Congress today is a reasonably pro-growth one. The new fiscal plans are supportive, monetary policy continues to have an easing bias, and the... 5th March 2024 · 15 mins read
Africa Rapid Response South Africa GDP (Q4 2023) South Africa’s economy posted a measly 0.1% q/q increase in GDP in the final quarter of last year and the latest evidence points to a soft start to 2024 too. But we still think that, with the drags... 5th March 2024 · 2 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Rapid Response PMIs (Feb. 2024) February’s batch of PMIs from the Middle East and North Africa continued to show that the Gulf’s private non-oil sectors have started 2024 on a strong footing. But Egypt’s economy appears to be... 5th March 2024 · 2 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Colombia’s external rebalancing: less than meets the eye The sharp narrowing in Colombia’s current account deficit last year to its lowest level since the aftermath of the Global Financial Crisis looks encouraging, but it was entirely a result of the... 4th March 2024 · 3 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Morocco well placed to move towards floating dirham Morocco’s improving balance of payments position and the sharp slowdown in inflation should provide the central bank, Bank Al-Maghrib (BAM), with the confidence to take the next step toward a fully... 4th March 2024 · 3 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Focus EM winners and losers from the green transition The green transition will deal a significant blow to EM oil producers that have failed to save their windfalls (Nigeria, Colombia, Angola), but boost the export revenues of economies such as Chile and... 4th March 2024 · 14 mins read
