Latin America Chart Pack

Latin America Chart Pack (Mar. 2024)

Our Latin America Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. Activity in the region slowed to a crawl at the end of last year and, while a recovery will...

13th March 2024 · 1 min read

Emerging Europe Rapid Response

Russia Consumer Prices (Feb.)

The rise in Russian inflation to 7.7% y/y in February highlights that price pressures in the economy remain strong and we think inflation is likely to increase further in the coming months. We doubt...

13th March 2024 · 2 mins read

Africa Economics Update

The naira’s march to fair value

The devaluation of the Nigerian naira earlier this year appears to have brought it much closer to fair value, which will help to put the balance of payments on a more stable footing. The key now is...

13th March 2024 · 4 mins read

India Economic Outlook

World-beating growth set to continue

India retained its title as the world’s fastest-growing major economy last year and we expect further strong growth over the coming years. That would put India on course to become the world’s third...

13th March 2024 · 20 mins read

Latin America Economics Focus

What would Trump 2.0 mean for Mexico?

The impact of a second Trump presidency on Mexico’s economy would depend to a large extent on whether the USMCA deal remains intact or Mexico finds itself subject to US import tariffs. If the latter...

12th March 2024 · 15 mins read

Latin America Rapid Response

Brazil IPCA (February 2024)

The Brazilian inflation data for February, which showed that the headline rate held steady at 4.5%, provided further evidence that underlying inflation pressures remain strong. This supports our view...

12th March 2024 · 2 mins read

Emerging Europe Economics Update

Three key stories from Turkey's balance of payments

Turkey’s balance of payments figures for January showed that the current account deficit continued to narrow, but the drop in capital inflows in recent months is a concern and it appears that this...

12th March 2024 · 3 mins read

India Rapid Response

India Consumer Prices (Feb. 2024)

Headline consumer price inflation held steady at 5.1% y/y in February and looking ahead, we think it will take a few more months before it reaches the RBI’s 4% long-term target. That suggests to us...

12th March 2024 · 2 mins read

India Economics Update

India to lead EM rise up the global GDP rankings

EMs will account for over half of global GDP within the next decade and almost 60% by 2050. Headlining this, India will become the world’s third-largest economy as soon as 2026. More generally, EMs...

11th March 2024 · 4 mins read

China Rapid Response

China Consumer & Producer Prices (Feb. 2024)

CPI inflation turned positive last month for the first time since September, thanks to temporary factors such as the volatility in food and tourism prices around Lunar New Year. But persistent...

11th March 2024 · 2 mins read

Africa Economics Weekly

South Africa metals and current account, Ghana debt

Reports suggest that metal producers in South Africa are contemplating cost-cutting measures on the back of the slump in global metals prices, presenting another headwind to the modest pick-up in...

8th March 2024 · 6 mins read

Latin America Economics Weekly

Sheinbaum’s 100 commitments, inflation worries

The recently-unveiled policy plans from Claudia Sheinbaum, the frontrunner to become Mexico’s next president, are aimed at building on President López Obrador’s legacy, but her proposals are likely to...

8th March 2024 · 7 mins read

Emerging Europe Economics Weekly

HUF struggles, Russia’s election coming into view

The dispute between the Hungarian central bank and the government heated up further this week, which has fuelled a narrative that threats to central bank independence are responsible for the recent...

8th March 2024 · 6 mins read

Asia Economics Weekly

Korea: resilient activity data, sticky inflation

We are sticking with our view that the Bank of Korea will cut interest rates at its June meeting, but the recent resilience of the economy and the stickiness of inflation means the risks are skewed to...

8th March 2024 · 5 mins read

India Economics Weekly

Rupee intervention, but not as you might think

The rupee is outperforming almost all other EM currencies against the US dollar this year, leading to the usual speculation that the RBI is intervening to prop up the currency. There is evidence of...

8th March 2024 · 4 mins read